| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| UVA | 14 | 10 | 7 | 0 | 31 |
| NCSU | 7 | 7 | 21 | 0 | 35 |
Our model blends Elo ratings (NCSU Elo 1507, UVA Elo 1521) plus home-field advantage. That projects NCSU -1.8 (55% to win), essentially in line with the market.
NCSU up 4 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,449 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
Virginia 31, NC State 35.
Yes — the model's pick (NCSU) was correct.
Why trust the number?Gridpex's model is walk-forward validated on 2014–24, out-of-sample: +0.28 pts mean Closing Line Value and 53.5% beat the close. We report the record and validate every pick against closing line value.
Called it — I had NCSU pregame. ✓ We log the misses too, but not this one.
J'Mari Taylor run for 66 yds for a TD (Will Bettridge KICK)
J'Mari Taylor run for 39 yds for a TD NC State Penalty, (Yards) declined (Will Bettridge KICK)
Chandler Morris pass intercepted, touchback.
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