Virginia vs. NC State: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
UVATeam statsNCSU
- Q3 0:45NCSUHollywood Smothers 9 Yd Run (Kanoah Vinesett Kick)31–35
- Q3 5:11UVAJ'Mari Taylor 66 Yd Run (Will Bettridge Kick)31–28
- Q3 6:39NCSUCJ Bailey 12 Yd Run (Kanoah Vinesett Kick)24–28
- Q3 10:46NCSUHollywood Smothers 14 Yd Run (Kanoah Vinesett Kick)24–21
- Q2 0:17UVASage Ennis 3 Yd pass from Chandler Morris (Will Bettridge Kick)24–14
- Q2 4:08UVAWill Bettridge 29 Yd Field Goal 17–14
- Q2 14:23NCSUNoah Rogers 27 Yd pass from CJ Bailey (Kanoah Vinesett Kick)14–14
- Q1 3:41UVAJ'Mari Taylor 9 Yd Run (Will Bettridge Kick)14–7
- Q1 8:26NCSUCJ Bailey 30 Yd Run (Kanoah Vinesett Kick)7–7
- Q1 10:37UVAJ'Mari Taylor 39 Yd Run (Will Bettridge Kick)7–0
How the model called it
- PassChandler Morris 30/43, 257 YDS, 1 TD, 1 INT
- RushJ'Mari Taylor 17 CAR, 150 YDS, 3 TD
- RecJahmal Edrine 6 REC, 68 YDS
- PassCJ Bailey 16/23, 200 YDS, 1 TD
- RushHollywood Smothers 17 CAR, 140 YDS, 2 TD
- RecTerrell Anderson 3 REC, 44 YDS
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsNCSU up 4 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,449 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q1 13:36UVA +36%
PENALTY UVA False Start (Twitty,Dakota) 5 yards from UVA39 to UVA34. NO PLAY
- Q4 2:12NCSU +27%
Caden Noonkester punt for 58 yds, Cam Ross returns for 10 yds to the UVA 19
- Q4 2:06UVA +16%
Chandler Morris pass complete to Kameron Courtney for 14 yds to the UVA 33 for a 1ST down
- Q4 12:29NCSU +12%
Caden Noonkester punt for 44 yds, Cam Ross returns for 19 yds to the UVA 42
- Q4 0:59NCSU +12%
C. Bailey takes a knee
- Q4 6:31UVA +11%
Hollywood Smothers run for a loss of 1 yard to the NCSU 7
FAQ
What was the final score of Virginia vs. NC State?
Virginia 31, NC State 35.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
Yes — the model's pick (NCSU) was correct.
| UVA | NCSU | |
|---|---|---|
| 514 | Total yards | 416 |
| 257 | Passing yards | 200 |
| 257 | Rushing yards | 216 |
| 24 | First downs | 22 |
| 13-19 | 3rd down | 1-7 |
| 1-2 | 4th down | 2-2 |
| 30/43 | Comp/Att | 16/23 |
| 6.0 | Yards per pass | 8.7 |
| 8.0 | Yards per rush | 6.2 |
| 1 | Turnovers | 0 |
| 3-20 | Penalties | 1-15 |
| 32:25 | Possession | 27:35 |
Costliest call
Q2 10:20 NCSU punt on 4th & 1 at NCSU 27. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 0.93 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q3 0:45NCSUHollywood Smothers 9 Yd Run (Kanoah Vinesett Kick)31–35
- Q3 5:11UVAJ'Mari Taylor 66 Yd Run (Will Bettridge Kick)31–28
- Q3 6:39NCSUCJ Bailey 12 Yd Run (Kanoah Vinesett Kick)24–28
- Q3 10:46NCSUHollywood Smothers 14 Yd Run (Kanoah Vinesett Kick)24–21
- Q2 0:17UVASage Ennis 3 Yd pass from Chandler Morris (Will Bettridge Kick)24–14
- Q2 4:08UVAWill Bettridge 29 Yd Field Goal 17–14
- Q2 14:23NCSUNoah Rogers 27 Yd pass from CJ Bailey (Kanoah Vinesett Kick)14–14
- Q1 3:41UVAJ'Mari Taylor 9 Yd Run (Will Bettridge Kick)14–7
- Q1 8:26NCSUCJ Bailey 30 Yd Run (Kanoah Vinesett Kick)7–7
- Q1 10:37UVAJ'Mari Taylor 39 Yd Run (Will Bettridge Kick)7–0
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (NCSU Elo 1507, UVA Elo 1521 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects NCSU -1.8 (56% to win), essentially in line with the market.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 15 · through week 2 · drive simulation
Season form — 2025
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profilesNC State leads 38–23 · 46% have been one-possession games
| UVA | NCSU | |
|---|---|---|
| +10.3 (#39) | CORE overall | +7.0 (#48) |
| +1 / -9 | offense / defense | +6 / -1 |
| 2.33 | points / drive | 2.46 |
| 1.65 | allowed / drive | 2.59 |
| 21% | three-and-outs | 27% |
| +2 | pass over expected | +5 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →