Virginia Tech vs. Virginia: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
VTTeam statsUVA
- Q4 4:21VTShamarius Peterkin 57 Yd pass from Kyron Drones (John Love Kick)7–27
- Q4 6:24UVAWill Bettridge 32 Yd Field Goal 0–27
- Q3 0:46UVAChandler Morris 8 Yd Run (Will Bettridge Kick)0–24
- Q3 7:28UVAWill Bettridge 27 Yd Field Goal 0–17
- Q2 4:33UVASage Ennis 1 Yd pass from J'Mari Taylor (Will Bettridge Kick)0–14
- Q1 7:26UVAJ'Mari Taylor 1 Yd Run (Will Bettridge Kick)0–7
How the model called it
- PassKyron Drones 4/16, 78 YDS, 1 TD, 2 INT
- RushJeffrey Overton Jr. 11 CAR, 53 YDS
- RecShamarius Peterkin 1 REC, 57 YDS, 1 TD
- PassChandler Morris 21/35, 182 YDS
- RushJ'Mari Taylor 20 CAR, 80 YDS, 1 TD
- RecKameron Courtney 6 REC, 50 YDS
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsUVA up 24 entering the 4th quarter. Across 555 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q1 7:26UVA +13%
Shotgun #3 J.Taylor rush middle for 1 yard gain to the VAT00 TOUCHDOWN
- Q2 4:33UVA +9%
Shotgun #3 J.Taylor pass complete short middle to #0 S.Ennis caught at VAT00, for 1 yard to the VAT00 TOUCHDOWN
FAQ
What was the final score of Virginia Tech vs. Virginia?
Virginia Tech 7, Virginia 27.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
Yes — the model's pick (UVA) was correct.
| VT | UVA | |
|---|---|---|
| 197 | Total yards | 380 |
| 78 | Passing yards | 183 |
| 119 | Rushing yards | 197 |
| 6 | First downs | 25 |
| 2-14 | 3rd down | 8-16 |
| 2-2 | 4th down | 1-2 |
| 4/16 | Comp/Att | 22/36 |
| 4.9 | Yards per pass | 5.1 |
| 3.8 | Yards per rush | 4.2 |
| 2 | Turnovers | 0 |
| 6-44 | Penalties | 5-50 |
| 23:04 | Possession | 36:56 |
Costliest call
Q2 0:47 VT punt on 4th & 1 at VT 36. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 0.83 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 4:21VTShamarius Peterkin 57 Yd pass from Kyron Drones (John Love Kick)7–27
- Q4 6:24UVAWill Bettridge 32 Yd Field Goal 0–27
- Q3 0:46UVAChandler Morris 8 Yd Run (Will Bettridge Kick)0–24
- Q3 7:28UVAWill Bettridge 27 Yd Field Goal 0–17
- Q2 4:33UVASage Ennis 1 Yd pass from J'Mari Taylor (Will Bettridge Kick)0–14
- Q1 7:26UVAJ'Mari Taylor 1 Yd Run (Will Bettridge Kick)0–7
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (UVA Elo 1604, VT Elo 1409 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects UVA -10.2 (76% to win), essentially in line with the market.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2025
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profilesVirginia Tech leads 62–34–5 · 44% have been one-possession games
| VT | UVA | |
|---|---|---|
| -9.5 (#94) | CORE overall | +10.3 (#39) |
| -0 / +9 | offense / defense | +1 / -9 |
| 1.85 | points / drive | 2.33 |
| 3.19 | allowed / drive | 1.65 |
| 24% | three-and-outs | 21% |
| -9 | pass over expected | +2 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →