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Virginia Tech vs. Virginia: Final Score & Recap
Sun, Nov 30, 12:00 AM
Scott StadiumConference game
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VT | 0 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 7 |
| UVA | 7 | 7 | 10 | 3 | 27 |
Gridpex Model Prediction
Power rating (Elo)
UVA 1604
VT 1409
Projected spread
UVA -10.2
incl. home edge
Model pick
UVA
78% to win
Market spread
UVA -8.5
sportsbook line
Model edge
None
aligned w/ market
Win prob: model / mkt
78%
UVA · market 74%
Our model blends Elo ratings (UVA Elo 1604, VT Elo 1409) plus home-field advantage. That projects UVA -10.2 (78% to win), essentially in line with the market.
Win Probability
Hover over the chart to see play details
UVA (top)VT (bottom)· colored dots = scoresFinal: UVA 100%
Advanced Matchup — 2025
VT2025 season · higher-impact side highlightedUVA
Offense
0.17
PPA / play
0.1842%
Success rate
42%1.25
Explosiveness
1.293.68
Pts / opportunity
3.5670%
Power success
81%Defense
0.28
PPA allowed / play
0.0646%
Success rate allowed
37%1.26
Explosiveness allowed
1.1913%
Havoc rate
18%16%
Stuff rate
19%Key matchups · Pro
- UVA pass offense (0.24 PPA) vs. VT pass defense (0.42 allowed) — edge VT.
- VT rush offense (0.20 PPA) vs. UVA rush defense (0.04 allowed) — edge VT.
- UVA rush offense (0.19 PPA) vs. VT rush defense (0.18 allowed) — edge UVA.
Drive-by-drive
VT 1/11 scoring drives← own end zone →UVA 5/12 scoring drives
VTINT8 pl, 40 yds· own 6Q1
UVATD6 pl, 46 yds· opp 46Q1
VTMISS11 pl, 52 yds· own 20Q1
UVAPUNT5 pl, 10 yds· own 28Q1
VTPUNT3 pl, -6 yds· own 12Q2
UVAPUNT3 pl, -13 yds· own 42Q2
VTPUNT3 pl, 2 yds· own 45Q2
UVATD11 pl, 80 yds· own 20Q2
VTPUNT3 pl, 8 yds· opp 35Q2
UVAPUNT5 pl, 10 yds· own 22Q2
VTPUNT3 pl, 9 yds· own 27Q2
UVADOWNS2 pl, 6 yds· own 17Q2
UVAPUNT5 pl, 15 yds· own 25Q3
VTPUNT3 pl, -2 yds· own 4Q3
UVAFG11 pl, 39 yds· opp 49Q3
VTPUNT3 pl, 8 yds· own 25Q3
UVATD12 pl, 74 yds· own 26Q3
VTPUNT3 pl, 2 yds· own 25Q3
UVADOWNS12 pl, 53 yds· own 33Q4
VTINT3 pl, 2 yds· own 15Q4
UVAFG6 pl, 22 yds· opp 37Q4
VTTD5 pl, 75 yds· own 25Q4
UVAEND7 pl, 37 yds· own 38Q4
Comparable Situations — historical outcomes
UVA up 24 entering the 4th quarter. Across 555 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
100%
UVA went on to win
A near-lock historically
FAQ
What was the final score of Virginia Tech vs. Virginia?
Virginia Tech 7, Virginia 27.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
Yes — the model's pick (UVA) was correct.
Why trust the number?Gridpex's model is walk-forward validated on 2014–24, out-of-sample: +0.28 pts mean Closing Line Value and 53.5% beat the close. We report the record — wins and losses — never fake locks.
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Gridiron IQ Model
Pinned · the model's take
Called it — I had UVA pregame. ✓ We log the misses too, but not this one.