Doak Campbell StadiumConference gameClosing line: FSU -14 · FSU covered
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VT | 0 | 7 | 0 | 7 | 14 |
| FSU | 0 | 10 | 14 | 10 | 34 |
Team stats
VTthis game · better side highlightedFSU
363
Total yards
431125
Passing yards
194238
Rushing yards
23720
First downs
278-12 · 67%
Third down
Gridpex Model Prediction
Power rating (Elo)
FSU 1609
VT 1431
Projected spread
FSU -9.5
incl. home edge
Model pick
FSU
76% to win
Market spread
FSU -14
sportsbook line
Model edge
VT
4.5 pts of value
Win prob: model / mkt
76%
FSU · market 82%
Our model blends Elo ratings (FSU Elo 1609, VT Elo 1431) plus home-field advantage. That projects FSU -9.5 (76% to win) — 4.5 points of value on VT versus the market line of -14.
Win Probability
Hover over the chart to see play details
FSU (top)VT (bottom)· colored dots = scoresFinal: FSU 100%
Key matchups · Pro
- FSU pass offense (0.32 PPA) vs. VT pass defense (0.42 allowed) — edge VT.
- VT pass offense (0.15 PPA) vs. FSU pass defense (0.25 allowed) — edge FSU.
- VT rush offense (0.20 PPA) vs. FSU rush defense (0.11 allowed) — edge VT.
Drive-by-drive
VT 2/8 scoring drives← own end zone →FSU 6/8 scoring drives
VTINT3 pl, 35 yds· own 25Q1
FSUMISS13 pl, 79 yds· own 5Q1
VTMISS11 pl, 44 yds· own 20Q1
Comparable Situations — historical outcomes
FSU up 17 entering the 4th quarter. Across 841 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
97%
FSU went on to win
A near-lock historically
FAQ
What was the final score of Virginia Tech vs. Florida State?
Virginia Tech 14, Florida State 34.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
Yes — the model's pick (FSU) was correct.
Why trust the number?Gridpex's model is walk-forward validated on 2014–24, out-of-sample: +0.28 pts mean Closing Line Value and 53.5% beat the close. We report the record and validate every pick against closing line value.
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Gridiron IQ Model
Pinned · the model's take
Called it — I had FSU pregame. ✓ We log the misses too, but not this one.