Virginia Tech vs. Florida State: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
VTTeam statsFSU
- Q4 4:12FSUJake Weinberg 34 Yd Field Goal 14–34
- Q4 7:31FSUTommy Castellanos 15 Yd Run (Jake Weinberg Kick)14–31
- Q4 11:20VTAyden Greene 8 Yd pass from Kyron Drones (John Love Kick)14–24
- Q3 0:54FSURandy Pittman Jr. 1 Yd Run (Jake Weinberg Kick)7–24
- Q3 9:33FSUTommy Castellanos 1 Yd Run (Jake Weinberg Kick)7–17
- Q2 3:11FSUDuce Robinson 50 Yd pass from Tommy Castellanos (Jake Weinberg Kick)7–10
- Q2 5:25VTKyron Drones 4 Yd Run (John Love Kick)7–3
- Q2 10:56FSUJake Weinberg 26 Yd Field Goal 0–3
How the model called it
- PassKyron Drones 10/18, 125 YDS, 1 TD, 1 INT
- RushMarcellous Hawkins Jr. 12 CAR, 101 YDS
- RecAyden Greene 2 REC, 39 YDS, 1 TD
- PassThomas Castellanos 12/24, 189 YDS, 1 TD
- RushOusmane Kromah 11 CAR, 59 YDS
- RecDuce Robinson 6 REC, 134 YDS, 1 TD
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsFSU up 17 entering the 4th quarter. Across 841 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q4 11:20VT +6%
No Huddle-Shotgun #1 K.Drones pass complete short right to #0 A.Greene caught at FSU01, for 8 yards to the FSU00 TOUCHDOWN, 1ST DOWN
FAQ
What was the final score of Virginia Tech vs. Florida State?
Virginia Tech 14, Florida State 34.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
Yes — the model's pick (FSU) was correct.
| VT | FSU | |
|---|---|---|
| 363 | Total yards | 431 |
| 125 | Passing yards | 194 |
| 238 | Rushing yards | 237 |
| 20 | First downs | 27 |
| 8-12 | 3rd down | 7-11 |
| 0-2 | 4th down | 1-1 |
| 10/18 | Comp/Att | 13/25 |
| 6.9 | Yards per pass | 7.8 |
| 5.8 | Yards per rush | 5.2 |
| 2 | Turnovers | 0 |
| 8-59 | Penalties | 1-5 |
| 27:25 | Possession | 32:35 |
Costliest call
Q4 6:30 VT go for it on 4th & 6 at VT 29. The model preferred punt, a gap of 0.49 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 4:12FSUJake Weinberg 34 Yd Field Goal 14–34
- Q4 7:31FSUTommy Castellanos 15 Yd Run (Jake Weinberg Kick)14–31
- Q4 11:20VTAyden Greene 8 Yd pass from Kyron Drones (John Love Kick)14–24
- Q3 0:54FSURandy Pittman Jr. 1 Yd Run (Jake Weinberg Kick)7–24
- Q3 9:33FSUTommy Castellanos 1 Yd Run (Jake Weinberg Kick)7–17
- Q2 3:11FSUDuce Robinson 50 Yd pass from Tommy Castellanos (Jake Weinberg Kick)7–10
- Q2 5:25VTKyron Drones 4 Yd Run (John Love Kick)7–3
- Q2 10:56FSUJake Weinberg 26 Yd Field Goal 0–3
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (FSU Elo 1609, VT Elo 1431 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects FSU -9.5 (74% to win) — 4.5 points clear of VT's market line of -14. That is a disagreement, not a betting edge — sides we favour have not covered at better than breakeven.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2025
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profilesFlorida State leads 25–13–1 · Florida State has won 2 straight · 33% have been one-possession games
| VT | FSU | |
|---|---|---|
| -9.5 (#94) | CORE overall | +14.3 (#29) |
| -0 / +9 | offense / defense | +13 / -1 |
| 1.85 | points / drive | 2.75 |
| 3.19 | allowed / drive | 2.42 |
| 24% | three-and-outs | 17% |
| -9 | pass over expected | -8 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →