Williams-Brice StadiumConference gameClosing line: SC -3 · VAN covered
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VAN | 7 | 7 | 7 | 10 | 31 |
| SC | 7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 7 |
Team stats
VANthis game · better side highlightedSC
323
Total yards
328177
Passing yards
242146
Rushing yards
8622
First downs
206-12 · 50%
Third down
Gridpex Model Prediction
Power rating (Elo)
SC 1729
VAN 1570
Projected spread
SC -8.8
incl. home edge
Model pick
SC
74% to win
Market spread
SC -3
sportsbook line
Model edge
SC
5.8 pts of value
Win prob: model / mkt
74%
SC · market 61%
Our model blends Elo ratings (SC Elo 1729, VAN Elo 1570) plus home-field advantage. That projects SC -8.8 (74% to win) — 5.8 points of value on SC versus the market line of -3.
Win Probability
Hover over the chart to see play details
SC (top)VAN (bottom)· colored dots = scoresFinal: SC 0%
Key matchups · Pro
- VAN rush offense (0.35 PPA) vs. SC rush defense (-0.06 allowed) — edge VAN.
- VAN pass offense (0.55 PPA) vs. SC pass defense (0.25 allowed) — edge VAN.
- SC pass offense (0.17 PPA) vs. VAN pass defense (0.35 allowed) — edge VAN.
Drive-by-drive
VAN 5/11 scoring drives← own end zone →SC 1/10 scoring drives
VANTD9 pl, 73 yds· own 27Q1
SCTD7 pl, 75 yds· own 25Q1
VANPUNT3 pl, 1 yds· own 14Q1
Comparable Situations — historical outcomes
VAN up 14 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,012 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
94%
VAN went on to win
A near-lock historically
FAQ
What was the final score of Vanderbilt vs. South Carolina?
Vanderbilt 31, South Carolina 7.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
No — the model picked SC, which didn't hit. We report the misses too.
Why trust the number?Gridpex's model is walk-forward validated on 2014–24, out-of-sample: +0.28 pts mean Closing Line Value and 53.5% beat the close. We report the record and validate every pick against closing line value.
🤖
Gridiron IQ Model
Pinned · the model's take
I had SC pregame and it didn't hit. We report the misses — that was one.