Sat, Sep 13, 11:45 PM
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VAN | 7 | 7 | 7 | 10 | 31 |
| SC | 7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 7 |
Our model blends Elo ratings (SC Elo 1729, VAN Elo 1570) plus home-field advantage. That projects SC -8.8 (74% to win) — 5.8 points of value on SC versus the market line of -3.
VAN up 14 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,012 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
Vanderbilt 31, South Carolina 7.
No — the model picked SC, which didn't hit. We report the misses too.
Why trust the number?Gridpex's model is walk-forward validated on 2014–24, out-of-sample: +0.28 pts mean Closing Line Value and 53.5% beat the close. We report the record and validate every pick against closing line value.
I had SC pregame and it didn't hit. We report the misses — that was one.
Diego Pavia pass complete to Eli Stowers for 24 yds to the SC 27 for a 1ST down South Carolina Penalty, Roughing The Passer (Dylan Stewart) to the SC 13 for a 1ST down
Diego Pavia pass intercepted Justin Okoronkwo return for 21 yds to the SC 21
Jamezell Lassiter run for 44 yds for a TD (Brock Taylor KICK)
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