UTSA vs. North Texas: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
UTSATeam statsUNT
- Q4 6:01UNTTerrence Lewis 37 Yd pass from Chris Jimerson Jr. (Kali Nguma Kick)17–55
- Q4 13:24UNTKali Nguma 19 Yd Field Goal 17–48
- Q3 0:55UNTWyatt Young 42 Yd pass from Drew Mestemaker (Kali Nguma Kick)17–45
- Q3 2:57UTSAMichael Petro 29 Yd Field Goal 17–38
- Q3 9:58UNTDrew Mestemaker 1 Yd Run (Kali Nguma Kick)14–38
- Q3 11:30UNTCameron Dorner 15 Yd pass from Drew Mestemaker (Kali Nguma Kick)14–31
- Q2 0:09UNTKiefer Sibley 18 Yd Run (Kali Nguma Kick)14–24
- Q2 5:22UTSARobert Henry Jr. 3 Yd Run (Michael Petro Kick)14–17
- Q1 0:00UNTWyatt Young 11 Yd pass from Drew Mestemaker (Kali Nguma Kick)7–17
- Q1 3:11UNTWyatt Young 20 Yd pass from Drew Mestemaker (Kali Nguma Kick)7–10
- Q1 7:31UNTKali Nguma 28 Yd Field Goal 7–3
- Q1 13:30UTSAHouston Thomas 3 Yd pass from Owen McCown (Michael Petro Kick)7–0
How the model called it
- PassOwen McCown 11/20, 84 YDS, 1 TD
- RushRobert Henry Jr. 12 CAR, 138 YDS, 1 TD
- RecAJ Wilson 4 REC, 35 YDS
- PassDrew Mestemaker 22/35, 277 YDS, 4 TD
- RushCaleb Hawkins 18 CAR, 133 YDS
- RecWyatt Young 6 REC, 102 YDS, 3 TD
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsUNT up 28 entering the 4th quarter. Across 465 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
FAQ
What was the final score of UTSA vs. North Texas?
UTSA 17, North Texas 55.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
Yes — the model's pick (UNT) was correct.
| UTSA | UNT | |
|---|---|---|
| 329 | Total yards | 584 |
| 115 | Passing yards | 314 |
| 214 | Rushing yards | 270 |
| 14 | First downs | 34 |
| 4-11 | 3rd down | 5-14 |
| 0-1 | 4th down | 3-3 |
| 15/25 | Comp/Att | 23/37 |
| 4.6 | Yards per pass | 8.5 |
| 6.7 | Yards per rush | 6.1 |
| 3 | Turnovers | 0 |
| 10-89 | Penalties | 8-65 |
| 26:21 | Possession | 33:39 |
Costliest call
Q4 13:24 UNT field goal on 4th & 1 at UTSA 1. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 2.14 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 6:01UNTTerrence Lewis 37 Yd pass from Chris Jimerson Jr. (Kali Nguma Kick)17–55
- Q4 13:24UNTKali Nguma 19 Yd Field Goal 17–48
- Q3 0:55UNTWyatt Young 42 Yd pass from Drew Mestemaker (Kali Nguma Kick)17–45
- Q3 2:57UTSAMichael Petro 29 Yd Field Goal 17–38
- Q3 9:58UNTDrew Mestemaker 1 Yd Run (Kali Nguma Kick)14–38
- Q3 11:30UNTCameron Dorner 15 Yd pass from Drew Mestemaker (Kali Nguma Kick)14–31
- Q2 0:09UNTKiefer Sibley 18 Yd Run (Kali Nguma Kick)14–24
- Q2 5:22UTSARobert Henry Jr. 3 Yd Run (Michael Petro Kick)14–17
- Q1 0:00UNTWyatt Young 11 Yd pass from Drew Mestemaker (Kali Nguma Kick)7–17
- Q1 3:11UNTWyatt Young 20 Yd pass from Drew Mestemaker (Kali Nguma Kick)7–10
- Q1 7:31UNTKali Nguma 28 Yd Field Goal 7–3
- Q1 13:30UTSAHouston Thomas 3 Yd pass from Owen McCown (Michael Petro Kick)7–0
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (UNT Elo 1530, UTSA Elo 1588 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects UNT -0.1 (51% to win) — 3.9 points clear of UTSA's market line of -4. That is a disagreement, not a betting edge — sides we favour have not covered at better than breakeven.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2025
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profilesUTSA leads 8–6 · 50% have been one-possession games
| UTSA | UNT | |
|---|---|---|
| +4.7 (#58) | CORE overall | +11.9 (#34) |
| +3 / -2 | offense / defense | +18 / +6 |
| 2.63 | points / drive | 4.00 |
| 1.99 | allowed / drive | 2.36 |
| 22% | three-and-outs | 14% |
| +5 | pass over expected | +7 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
Create a free account →You get Pro free for 6 months. No card required.
Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →