| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| UTSA | 7 | 7 | 3 | 0 | 17 |
| UNT | 17 | 7 | 21 | 10 | 55 |
Our model blends Elo ratings (UNT Elo 1530, UTSA Elo 1588) plus home-field advantage. That projects UNT -0.1 (50% to win) — 3.9 points of value on UTSA versus the market line of -4.
UNT up 28 entering the 4th quarter. Across 465 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
UTSA 17, North Texas 55.
Yes — the model's pick (UNT) was correct.
Why trust the number?Gridpex's model is walk-forward validated on 2014–24, out-of-sample: +0.28 pts mean Closing Line Value and 53.5% beat the close. We report the record and validate every pick against closing line value.
Called it — I had UNT pregame. ✓ We log the misses too, but not this one.
Chris Jimerson Jr. pass complete to Terrence Lewis for 37 yds for a TD UTSA Penalty, Defensive Offside (Shad Banks Jr.) declined (Kali Nguma KICK)
Robert Henry Jr. run for 72 yds to the UNT 3 for a 1ST down
Caleb Hawkins run for 37 yds to the UTSA 30 for a 1ST down
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