UTEP
Mountain West· Elo 1208
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| UTEP | 7 | 13 | 11 | 0 | 31 |
| DEL | 7 | 24 | 10 | 20 | 61 |
Our model blends Elo ratings (DEL Elo 1266, UTEP Elo 1208) plus home-field advantage. That projects DEL -4.7 (64% to win), essentially in line with the market.
DEL up 10 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,140 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
UTEP 31, Delaware 61.
Yes — the model's pick (DEL) was correct.
Why trust the number?Gridpex's model is walk-forward validated on 2014–24, out-of-sample: +0.28 pts mean Closing Line Value and 53.5% beat the close. We report the record and validate every pick against closing line value.
Called it — I had DEL pregame. ✓ We log the misses too, but not this one.
No Huddle-Shotgun #19 E.Willis III rush left for 5 yards loss to the UTEP16 fumbled by #19 E.Willis III at UTEP17 forced by #2 M.Pollard recovered by DEL #35 G.Moul at UTEP16 #35 G.Moul return 16 yards to the UTEP00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 09:09 #91 N.Reed kick attempt good (H: #99 B.Lach, LS: #49 M.Sills)
No Huddle-Shotgun #9 S.Locklear pass complete short left to #23 W.Davis Jr. caught at UTEP38, for 68 yards to the DEL00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 01:09, 1ST DOWN #17 J.Brown pass attempt Successful
No Huddle-Shotgun #9 S.Locklear pass complete deep left to #89 J.Schuchts caught at DEL35, for 64 yards to the DEL00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 05:05, 1ST DOWN #91 C.Arreola kick attempt good (H: #11 C.McConnell, LS: #39 J.Hancock)
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