UTEP vs. Delaware: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
UTEPTeam statsDEL
- Q4 0:43DELNate Reed 45 Yd Field Goal 31–61
- Q4 2:09DELNate Reed 32 Yd Field Goal 31–58
- Q4 4:25DELGreg Spiller 55 Yd Run (Nate Reed Kick)31–55
- Q4 8:02DELJake Thaw 7 Yd pass from Nick Minicucci (Nate Reed Kick)31–48
- Q3 1:09UTEPWondame Davis Jr. 68 Yd pass from Skyler Locklear (Skyler Locklear Pass to Jaylan Brown for Two-Point Conversion)31–41
- Q3 2:04DELNate Reed 20 Yd Field Goal 23–41
- Q3 4:38DELN. Minicucci pass to J. Thaw for 51 yds, for a TD (N. Reed KICK)23–38
- Q3 5:25UTEPTanner Cragun 28 Yd Field Goal 23–31
- Q2 0:41UTEPEric Willis III 2 Yd pass from Skyler Locklear (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)20–31
- Q2 2:01DELJo Silver 2 Yd Run (Nate Reed Kick)14–31
- Q2 5:05UTEPS. Locklear pass to J. Schuchts for 64 yds, for a TD (C. Arreola KICK)14–24
- Q2 9:09DELE. Willis III run for -5 yds, E. Willis III fumbled, forced by M. Pollard, recovered by G. Moul, G. Moulreturn 16 yards for a TD (N. Reed KICK)7–24
- Q2 10:24DELNate Reed 37 Yd Field Goal 7–17
- Q2 15:00DELScott Moore 4 Yd pass from Nick Minicucci (Nate Reed Kick)7–14
- Q1 11:11UTEPKenny Odom 49 Yd pass from Skyler Locklear (Carlos Arreola Kick)7–7
- Q1 11:11DELNick Minicucci 17 Yd Run (Nate Reed Kick)0–7
How the model called it
What the numbers say
- UTEP played behind the sticks — third downs that long convert rarely, and DEL did not face the same ones. 3rd & 9.3 vs 3rd & 5.4
- PassSkyler Locklear 22/39, 338 YDS, 4 TD, 5 INT
- RushAshten Emory 12 CAR, 29 YDS
- RecWondame Davis Jr. 3 REC, 112 YDS, 1 TD
- PassNick Minicucci 24/37, 311 YDS, 3 TD
- RushJo Silver 7 CAR, 64 YDS, 1 TD
- RecKyre Duplessis 4 REC, 104 YDS
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsDEL up 10 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,140 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q2 15:00DEL +17%
No Huddle-Shotgun #4 N.Minicucci pass complete short left to #40 S.Moore caught at UTEP01, for 4 yards to the UTEP00 TOUCHDOWN
- Q1 11:11UTEP +16%
No Huddle #9 S.Locklear pass complete deep left to #6 K.Odom caught at DEL13, for 49 yards to the DEL00 TOUCHDOWN, 1ST DOWN
- Q1 11:11DEL +16%
No Huddle-Shotgun #4 N.Minicucci rush middle for 17 yards gain to the UTEP00 TOUCHDOWN, 1ST DOWN
- Q2 9:09DEL +10%
No Huddle-Shotgun #19 E.Willis III rush left for 5 yards loss to the UTEP16 fumbled by #19 E.Willis III at UTEP17 forced by #2 M.Pollard recovered by DEL #35 G.Moul at…
- Q3 4:38DEL +10%
No Huddle-Shotgun #4 N.Minicucci pass complete deep left to #15 J.Thaw caught at UTEP18, for 51 yards to the UTEP00 TOUCHDOWN, 1ST DOWN
- Q3 1:09UTEP +10%
No Huddle-Shotgun #9 S.Locklear pass complete short left to #23 W.Davis Jr. caught at UTEP38, for 68 yards to the DEL00 TOUCHDOWN, 1ST DOWN #17 J.Brown pass attempt Su…
FAQ
What was the final score of UTEP vs. Delaware?
UTEP 31, Delaware 61.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
Yes — the model's pick (DEL) was correct.
| UTEP | DEL | |
|---|---|---|
| 370 | Total yards | 527 |
| 344 | Passing yards | 311 |
| 26 | Rushing yards | 216 |
| 18 | First downs | 22 |
| 5-16 | 3rd down | 2-12 |
| 0-4 | 4th down | 2-3 |
| 23/41 | Comp/Att | 24/37 |
| 8.4 | Yards per pass | 8.4 |
| 0.8 | Yards per rush | 5.8 |
| 6 | Turnovers | 1 |
| 8-80 | Penalties | 8-83 |
| 26:55 | Possession | 33:05 |
Costliest call
Q3 8:59 DEL punt on 4th & 1 at DEL 26. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 0.88 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 0:43DELNate Reed 45 Yd Field Goal 31–61
- Q4 2:09DELNate Reed 32 Yd Field Goal 31–58
- Q4 4:25DELGreg Spiller 55 Yd Run (Nate Reed Kick)31–55
- Q4 8:02DELJake Thaw 7 Yd pass from Nick Minicucci (Nate Reed Kick)31–48
- Q3 1:09UTEPWondame Davis Jr. 68 Yd pass from Skyler Locklear (Skyler Locklear Pass to Jaylan Brown for Two-Point Conversion)31–41
- Q3 2:04DELNate Reed 20 Yd Field Goal 23–41
- Q3 4:38DELN. Minicucci pass to J. Thaw for 51 yds, for a TD (N. Reed KICK)23–38
- Q3 5:25UTEPTanner Cragun 28 Yd Field Goal 23–31
- Q2 0:41UTEPEric Willis III 2 Yd pass from Skyler Locklear (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)20–31
- Q2 2:01DELJo Silver 2 Yd Run (Nate Reed Kick)14–31
- Q2 5:05UTEPS. Locklear pass to J. Schuchts for 64 yds, for a TD (C. Arreola KICK)14–24
- Q2 9:09DELE. Willis III run for -5 yds, E. Willis III fumbled, forced by M. Pollard, recovered by G. Moul, G. Moulreturn 16 yards for a TD (N. Reed KICK)7–24
- Q2 10:24DELNate Reed 37 Yd Field Goal 7–17
- Q2 15:00DELScott Moore 4 Yd pass from Nick Minicucci (Nate Reed Kick)7–14
- Q1 11:11UTEPKenny Odom 49 Yd pass from Skyler Locklear (Carlos Arreola Kick)7–7
- Q1 11:11DELNick Minicucci 17 Yd Run (Nate Reed Kick)0–7
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (DEL Elo 1266, UTEP Elo 1208 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects DEL -4.7 (64% to win), essentially in line with the market.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2025
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles| UTEP | DEL | |
|---|---|---|
| -26.7 (#131) | CORE overall | -15.0 (#107) |
| -26 / +1 | offense / defense | -5 / +10 |
| 1.32 | points / drive | 2.26 |
| 2.36 | allowed / drive | 2.63 |
| 32% | three-and-outs | 23% |
| -0 | pass over expected | +10 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →