Utah vs. BYU: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
UTAHTeam statsBYU
- Q4 1:24UTAHLarry Simmons 2 Yd pass from Devon Dampier (Dillon Curtis Kick)21–24
- Q4 4:22BYUBear Bachmeier 22 Yd Run (Will Ferrin Kick)14–24
- Q4 11:19BYUParker Kingston 12 Yd Run (Will Ferrin Kick)14–17
- Q4 14:15UTAHDaniel Bray 49 Yd Run (Dillon Curtis Kick)14–10
- Q2 0:03BYUWill Ferrin 26 Yd Field Goal 7–10
- Q2 3:24UTAHRyan Davis 11 Yd pass from Devon Dampier (Dillon Curtis Kick)7–7
- Q2 13:37BYUChase Roberts 17 Yd pass from Bear Bachmeier (Will Ferrin Kick)0–7
How the model called it
- PassDevon Dampier 20/36, 244 YDS, 2 TD, 1 INT
- RushDaniel Bray 10 CAR, 121 YDS, 1 TD
- RecRyan Davis 7 REC, 66 YDS, 1 TD
- PassBear Bachmeier 13/22, 166 YDS, 1 TD
- RushLJ Martin 26 CAR, 122 YDS
- RecParker Kingston 4 REC, 50 YDS
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsBYU up 3 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,457 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q4 11:19BYU +38%
Parker Kingston run for 12 yds for a TD (Will Ferrin KICK)
- Q4 14:15UTAH +34%
Daniel Bray run for 49 yds for a TD (Dillon Curtis KICK)
- Q4 1:24UTAH +28%
Devon Dampier pass complete to Larry Simmons for 2 yds for a TD (Dillon Curtis KICK)
- Q4 0:27BYU +28%
PENALTY Utah Delay Of Game 5 yards from Utah43 to Utah38. NO PLAY
- Q2 3:24UTAH +23%
Devon Dampier pass complete to Ryan Davis for 11 yds for a TD (Dillon Curtis KICK)
- Q4 6:37BYU +20%
PENALTY BYU False Start (Kingston,Parker) 5 yards from Utah33 to Utah38. NO PLAY
FAQ
What was the final score of Utah vs. BYU?
Utah 21, BYU 24.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
No — the model picked UTAH, which didn't hit. We report the misses too.
| UTAH | BYU | |
|---|---|---|
| 470 | Total yards | 368 |
| 244 | Passing yards | 166 |
| 226 | Rushing yards | 202 |
| 24 | First downs | 22 |
| 5-12 | 3rd down | 3-12 |
| 1-5 | 4th down | 1-3 |
| 20/36 | Comp/Att | 13/24 |
| 6.8 | Yards per pass | 6.9 |
| 6.1 | Yards per rush | 4.8 |
| 2 | Turnovers | 0 |
| 12-77 | Penalties | 5-42 |
| 28:53 | Possession | 31:07 |
Costliest call
Q2 9:11 UTAH go for it on 4th & 7 at BYU 28. The model preferred field goal, a gap of 0.46 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 1:24UTAHLarry Simmons 2 Yd pass from Devon Dampier (Dillon Curtis Kick)21–24
- Q4 4:22BYUBear Bachmeier 22 Yd Run (Will Ferrin Kick)14–24
- Q4 11:19BYUParker Kingston 12 Yd Run (Will Ferrin Kick)14–17
- Q4 14:15UTAHDaniel Bray 49 Yd Run (Dillon Curtis Kick)14–10
- Q2 0:03BYUWill Ferrin 26 Yd Field Goal 7–10
- Q2 3:24UTAHRyan Davis 11 Yd pass from Devon Dampier (Dillon Curtis Kick)7–7
- Q2 13:37BYUChase Roberts 17 Yd pass from Bear Bachmeier (Will Ferrin Kick)0–7
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (BYU Elo 1695, UTAH Elo 1773 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects BYU +0.7 (49% to win) — 3.8 points clear of BYU's market line of +4.5. That is a disagreement, not a betting edge — sides we favour have not covered at better than breakeven.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2025
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profilesUtah leads 59–34–4 · BYU has won 3 straight · 41% have been one-possession games
| UTAH | BYU | |
|---|---|---|
| +29.1 (#7) | CORE overall | +18.0 (#20) |
| +19 / -10 | offense / defense | +10 / -8 |
| 3.52 | points / drive | 2.61 |
| 1.62 | allowed / drive | 1.85 |
| 18% | three-and-outs | 19% |
| -4 | pass over expected | -0 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →