Utah State vs. UNLV: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
USUTeam statsUNLV
- 2OT 0:00UNLVKayden McGee 25 Yd Run26–29
- 2OT 0:00USUTanner Rinker 39 Yd Field Goal26–23
- Q4 2:18UNLVRamon Villela 32 Yd Field Goal 23–23
- Q4 6:56USUBryson Barnes 58 Yd Run (Tanner Rinker Kick)23–20
- Q4 10:59UNLVRamon Villela 31 Yd Field Goal16–20
- Q3 4:32UNLVDaejon Reynolds 9 Yd pass from Anthony Colandrea (Ramon Villela Kick)16–17
- Q3 8:40USUTanner Rinker 24 Yd Field Goal 16–10
- Q2 5:27UNLVAnthony Colandrea 10 Yd Run (Ramon Villela Kick)13–10
- Q2 10:12USUMiles Davis 1 Yd Run (Tanner Rinker Kick)13–3
- Q1 2:21USUBrady Boyd 17 Yd pass from Bryson Barnes (Tanner Rinker PAT failed)6–3
- Q1 4:36UNLVRamon Villela 31 Yd Field Goal 0–3
How the model called it
- PassBryson Barnes 19/38, 256 YDS, 1 TD
- RushBryson Barnes 22 CAR, 124 YDS, 1 TD
- RecBraden Pegan 8 REC, 109 YDS
- PassAnthony Colandrea 24/43, 276 YDS, 1 TD, 1 INT
- RushKayden McGee 3 CAR, 54 YDS, 1 TD
- RecTroy Omeire 4 REC, 83 YDS
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsUNLV up 1 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,678 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q4 0:02USU +71%
#14 T.Rinker field goal attempt from 44 yards NO GOOD
- OT 0:00UNLV +53%
#32 R.Villela field goal attempt from 39 yards NO GOOD
- Q4 6:56USU +48%
Bryson Barnes 58 Yd Run (Tanner Rinker Kick)
- Q4 2:18UNLV +46%
Ramon Villela 32 Yd Field Goal
- Q4 2:11UNLV +35%
Shotgun #16 B.Barnes pass incomplete short right to #10 A.Garcia thrown to USU26 QB hurried by #4 A.Powdrell and #8 M.McDuffie
- 2OT 0:00USU +32%
Tanner Rinker 39 Yd Field Goal
FAQ
What was the final score of Utah State vs. UNLV?
Utah State 26, UNLV 29.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
Yes — the model's pick (UNLV) was correct.
| USU | UNLV | |
|---|---|---|
| 434 | Total yards | 422 |
| 256 | Passing yards | 276 |
| 178 | Rushing yards | 146 |
| 23 | First downs | 27 |
| 9-17 | 3rd down | 7-15 |
| 0-1 | 4th down | 2-3 |
| 19/38 | Comp/Att | 24/43 |
| 6.7 | Yards per pass | 6.4 |
| 4.9 | Yards per rush | 4.6 |
| 0 | Turnovers | 1 |
| 5-60 | Penalties | 4-20 |
| 27:45 | Possession | 32:15 |
Costliest call
Q2 1:04 USU go for it on 4th & 8 at UNLV 21. The model preferred field goal, a gap of 0.81 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- 2OT 0:00UNLVKayden McGee 25 Yd Run26–29
- 2OT 0:00USUTanner Rinker 39 Yd Field Goal26–23
- Q4 2:18UNLVRamon Villela 32 Yd Field Goal 23–23
- Q4 6:56USUBryson Barnes 58 Yd Run (Tanner Rinker Kick)23–20
- Q4 10:59UNLVRamon Villela 31 Yd Field Goal16–20
- Q3 4:32UNLVDaejon Reynolds 9 Yd pass from Anthony Colandrea (Ramon Villela Kick)16–17
- Q3 8:40USUTanner Rinker 24 Yd Field Goal 16–10
- Q2 5:27UNLVAnthony Colandrea 10 Yd Run (Ramon Villela Kick)13–10
- Q2 10:12USUMiles Davis 1 Yd Run (Tanner Rinker Kick)13–3
- Q1 2:21USUBrady Boyd 17 Yd pass from Bryson Barnes (Tanner Rinker PAT failed)6–3
- Q1 4:36UNLVRamon Villela 31 Yd Field Goal 0–3
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (UNLV Elo 1605, USU Elo 1422 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects UNLV -9.7 (75% to win) — 5.2 points clear of UNLV's market line of -4.5. That is a disagreement, not a betting edge — sides we favour have not covered at better than breakeven.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2025
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profilesUtah State leads 18–10 · UNLV has won 3 straight · 46% have been one-possession games
| USU | UNLV | |
|---|---|---|
| -4.1 (#77) | CORE overall | -1.9 (#69) |
| -1 / +3 | offense / defense | +10 / +12 |
| 2.33 | points / drive | 2.90 |
| 2.43 | allowed / drive | 2.35 |
| 31% | three-and-outs | 18% |
| +4 | pass over expected | +2 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →