Utah State vs. Hawai'i: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
USUTeam statsHAW
- Q4 3:48HAWLandon Sims 4 Yd Run (Kansei Matsuzawa Kick)26–44
- Q4 7:47HAWKansei Matsuzawa 36 Yd Field Goal 26–37
- Q4 11:55HAWMicah Alejado 15 Yd Run (Kansei Matsuzawa Kick)26–34
- Q3 3:20HAWKansei Matsuzawa 46 Yd Field Goal 26–27
- Q3 14:01USUBroc Lane 32 Yd pass from Bryson Barnes (Tanner Rinker PAT blocked)26–24
- Q2 0:24HAWPofele Ashlock 31 Yd pass from Micah Alejado (Kansei Matsuzawa Kick)20–24
- Q2 1:05USUTanner Rinker 40 Yd Field Goal 20–17
- Q2 5:45HAWPofele Ashlock 7 Yd pass from Micah Alejado (Kansei Matsuzawa Kick)17–17
- Q2 8:11USUJaven Jacobs 30 Yd pass from Anthony Garcia (Tanner Rinker Kick)17–10
- Q2 9:36USUMiles Davis 1 Yd Run (Tanner Rinker Kick)10–10
- Q1 2:27HAWPofele Ashlock 18 Yd pass from Micah Alejado (Kansei Matsuzawa Kick)3–10
- Q1 4:31USUTanner Rinker 20 Yd Field Goal 3–3
- Q1 8:53HAWKansei Matsuzawa 31 Yd Field Goal 0–3
How the model called it
What the numbers say
- USU lived on explosives rather than sustaining drives — a profile that vanished once those chunk plays were tackled. 16% explosive on a 39% success rate
- PassBryson Barnes 14/26, 175 YDS, 1 TD, 1 INT
- RushMiles Davis 15 CAR, 102 YDS, 1 TD
- RecBraden Pegan 3 REC, 84 YDS
- PassMicah Alejado 34/54, 413 YDS, 3 TD, 1 INT
- RushLandon Sims 10 CAR, 82 YDS, 1 TD
- RecJackson Harris 7 REC, 117 YDS
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsHAW up 1 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,678 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q4 11:55HAW +30%
Micah Alejado run for 15 yds for a TD (Kansei Matsuzawa KICK)
- Q2 0:24HAW +24%
Micah Alejado pass complete to Pofele Ashlock for 31 yds for a TD (Kansei Matsuzawa KICK)
- Q2 8:11USU +23%
Anthony Garcia pass complete to Javen Jacobs for 30 yds for a TD (Tanner Rinker KICK)
- Q3 3:20HAW +22%
Kansei Matsuzawa 46 yd FG GOOD
- Q2 9:36USU +21%
Miles Davis run for 1 yd for a TD (Tanner Rinker KICK)
- Q3 14:01USU +21%
Bryson Barnes pass complete to Broc Lane for 32 yds for a TD (Tanner Rinker PAT BLOCKED)
FAQ
What was the final score of Utah State vs. Hawai'i?
Utah State 26, Hawai'i 44.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
No — the model picked USU, which didn't hit. We report the misses too.
| USU | HAW | |
|---|---|---|
| 435 | Total yards | 546 |
| 269 | Passing yards | 413 |
| 166 | Rushing yards | 133 |
| 20 | First downs | 26 |
| 2-12 | 3rd down | 5-16 |
| 1-2 | 4th down | 1-2 |
| 19/37 | Comp/Att | 34/54 |
| 7.3 | Yards per pass | 7.6 |
| 5.7 | Yards per rush | 4.6 |
| 2 | Turnovers | 1 |
| 11-73 | Penalties | 5-44 |
| 25:59 | Possession | 34:01 |
Costliest call
Q1 4:31 USU field goal on 4th & 2 at HAW 2. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 1.39 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 3:48HAWLandon Sims 4 Yd Run (Kansei Matsuzawa Kick)26–44
- Q4 7:47HAWKansei Matsuzawa 36 Yd Field Goal 26–37
- Q4 11:55HAWMicah Alejado 15 Yd Run (Kansei Matsuzawa Kick)26–34
- Q3 3:20HAWKansei Matsuzawa 46 Yd Field Goal 26–27
- Q3 14:01USUBroc Lane 32 Yd pass from Bryson Barnes (Tanner Rinker PAT blocked)26–24
- Q2 0:24HAWPofele Ashlock 31 Yd pass from Micah Alejado (Kansei Matsuzawa Kick)20–24
- Q2 1:05USUTanner Rinker 40 Yd Field Goal 20–17
- Q2 5:45HAWPofele Ashlock 7 Yd pass from Micah Alejado (Kansei Matsuzawa Kick)17–17
- Q2 8:11USUJaven Jacobs 30 Yd pass from Anthony Garcia (Tanner Rinker Kick)17–10
- Q2 9:36USUMiles Davis 1 Yd Run (Tanner Rinker Kick)10–10
- Q1 2:27HAWPofele Ashlock 18 Yd pass from Micah Alejado (Kansei Matsuzawa Kick)3–10
- Q1 4:31USUTanner Rinker 20 Yd Field Goal 3–3
- Q1 8:53HAWKansei Matsuzawa 31 Yd Field Goal 0–3
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (HAW Elo 1280, USU Elo 1425 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects HAW +3.4 (42% to win), essentially in line with the market.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2025
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profilesUtah State leads 13–7 · 15% have been one-possession games
| USU | HAW | |
|---|---|---|
| -4.1 (#77) | CORE overall | -6.2 (#82) |
| -1 / +3 | offense / defense | +1 / +7 |
| 2.33 | points / drive | 2.21 |
| 2.43 | allowed / drive | 2.06 |
| 31% | three-and-outs | 19% |
| +4 | pass over expected | +14 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →