Clarence T.C. Ching Athletics ComplexConference gameClosing line: USU +-1.5 · HAW covered
Sun, Oct 12, 3:59 AM
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USU | 3 | 17 | 6 | 0 | 26 |
| HAW | 10 | 14 | 3 | 17 | 44 |
Our model blends Elo ratings (HAW Elo 1280, USU Elo 1425) plus home-field advantage. That projects HAW +3.4 (40% to win), essentially in line with the market.
HAW up 1 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,678 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
Utah State 26, Hawai'i 44.
No — the model picked USU, which didn't hit. We report the misses too.
Why trust the number?Gridpex's model is walk-forward validated on 2014–24, out-of-sample: +0.28 pts mean Closing Line Value and 53.5% beat the close. We report the record and validate every pick against closing line value.
I had USU pregame and it didn't hit. We report the misses — that was one.
Bryson Barnes pass complete to Braden Pegan for 53 yds to the HAW 21 for a 1ST down
Micah Alejado sacked for a loss of 8 yards to the HAW 45
Jacob Conover pass complete to Brady Boyd for 28 yds Brady Boyd fumbled, recovered by USU Braden Pegan for a 1ST down
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