UT Martin vs. Missouri State: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
UT Martin0-2
Missouri State1-2
▸Final
Plaster Sports Complex
UT MTeam statsMOST
221Total yards417
150Pass287
71Rush130
14First downs22
5-143rd down5-10
3Turnovers1
29:32Possession30:28
- Q4 1:52UT MThomas Ansley 1 Yd Run (Cade Hechter Kick)10–42
- Q4 6:55UT MCade Hechter 32 Yd Field Goal 3–42
- Q3 12:45MOSTShomari Lawrence 50 Yd Run (Yousef Obeid Kick)0–42
- Q2 0:25MOSTDash Luke 17 Yd pass from Jacob Clark (Yousef Obeid Kick)0–35
- Q2 11:25MOSTConnor Lair 1 Yd pass from Jacob Clark (Yousef Obeid Kick)0–28
- Q1 0:27MOSTJames BlackStrain 6 Yd pass from Jacob Clark (Yousef Obeid Kick)0–21
- Q1 3:27MOSTJacob Clark 4 Yd Run (Yousef Obeid Kick)0–14
- Q1 11:50MOSTJacob Clark 7 Yd Run (Yousef Obeid Kick)0–7
How the model called it
Market line
MOST −14.5
Against the number
MOST covered
line MOST −14.5
What the numbers say
- MOST played behind the sticks — third downs that long convert rarely, and UT M did not face the same ones. 3rd & 10.5 vs 3rd & 5.4
Kickoff134 plays →Final
Tap or hover on the chart to see play details
MOST (top)UT M (bottom)· colored dots = scoresFinal: MOST 100%
Closing line
MOST −14.5
Closing total
55.0
Model line
—
Actual result
UT M 10 – 42 MOST
UT Martin
- PassJase Bauer 19/27, 112 YDS, 1 INT
- RushTommy Ansley 6 CAR, 18 YDS, 1 TD
- RecScottie Alexander 3 REC, 27 YDS
Missouri State
- PassJacob Clark 20/28, 271 YDS, 3 TD
- RushShomari Lawrence 8 CAR, 65 YDS, 1 TD
- RecDash Luke 9 REC, 110 YDS, 1 TD
20.8sper snap · faster the national 24.5s
fastnational avgslow
Snaps run
116
Points / snap
0.45
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsMOST up 42 entering the 4th quarter. Across 170 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
100%
MOST went on to win
A near-lock historically
FAQ
What was the final score of UT Martin vs. Missouri State?
UT Martin 10, Missouri State 42.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
Yes — the model's pick (MOST) was correct.
UT M
MOST
36%
Success rate
45%
0.20
EPA / pass
0.64
0.06
EPA / rush
0.23
32%
Early-down success
44%
39%
Pass success
52%
30%
Rush success
37%
11%
Explosive play rate (15+ yds)
17%
22%
Stuffed rush rate
41%
59%
Pass rate
55%
5.4
Avg 3rd-down distance
10.5
UT M
5.4 yards to go on 3rd down
56 scrimmage snaps
MOST
10.5 yards to go on 3rd down
60 scrimmage snaps
| UT M | MOST | |
|---|---|---|
| 221 | Total yards | 417 |
| 150 | Passing yards | 287 |
| 71 | Rushing yards | 130 |
| 14 | First downs | 22 |
| 5-14 | 3rd down | 5-10 |
| 1-1 | 4th down | 1-1 |
| 23/32 | Comp/Att | 22/32 |
| 4.7 | Yards per pass | 9.0 |
| 2.8 | Yards per rush | 4.5 |
| 3 | Turnovers | 1 |
| 3-35 | Penalties | 11-84 |
| 29:32 | Possession | 30:28 |
UT M
5/7 with the model
−1.4 pts · −0.0% win prob
MOST
3/4 with the model
−0.6 pts · −0.0% win prob
Costliest call
Q2 2:14 UT M punt on 4th & 1 at UT M 15. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 0.90 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finishUT M 2/11 scoring drives← own end zone →MOST 6/11 scoring drives
UT MFUM3 pl, 7 yds· own 25Q1
MOSTTD5 pl, 32 yds· opp 32Q1
UT MPUNT3 pl, 13 yds· own 25Q1
MOSTTD13 pl, 83 yds· own 17Q1
UT MINT4 pl, 22 yds· own 25Q1
MOSTTD4 pl, 41 yds· opp 41Q1
UT MFUM2 pl, 32 yds· own 25Q1
MOSTTD8 pl, 62 yds· own 38Q2
UT MPUNT7 pl, 28 yds· own 25Q2
MOSTPUNT4 pl, 24 yds· own 20Q2
UT MPUNT3 pl, 9 yds· own 6Q2
MOSTTD6 pl, 57 yds· own 43Q2
UT MEND1 pl, 7 yds· own 25Q2
MOSTTD5 pl, 80 yds· own 20Q3
UT MPUNT3 pl, 1 yds· own 23Q3
MOSTPUNT6 pl, 20 yds· own 28Q3
UT MPUNT3 pl, 1 yds· own 14Q3
MOSTPUNT4 pl, 16 yds· own 33Q3
UT MFG21 pl, 78 yds· own 8Q3
MOSTFUM3 pl, 0 yds· own 32Q4
UT MTD8 pl, 32 yds· opp 32Q4
MOSTEND3 pl, -3 yds· own 23Q4
- Q4 1:52UT MThomas Ansley 1 Yd Run (Cade Hechter Kick)10–42
- Q4 6:55UT MCade Hechter 32 Yd Field Goal 3–42
- Q3 12:45MOSTShomari Lawrence 50 Yd Run (Yousef Obeid Kick)0–42
- Q2 0:25MOSTDash Luke 17 Yd pass from Jacob Clark (Yousef Obeid Kick)0–35
- Q2 11:25MOSTConnor Lair 1 Yd pass from Jacob Clark (Yousef Obeid Kick)0–28
- Q1 0:27MOSTJames BlackStrain 6 Yd pass from Jacob Clark (Yousef Obeid Kick)0–21
- Q1 3:27MOSTJacob Clark 4 Yd Run (Yousef Obeid Kick)0–14
- Q1 11:50MOSTJacob Clark 7 Yd Run (Yousef Obeid Kick)0–7
Model prediction
how the number is builtOne or both teams lack a power rating (often an FCS opponent), so the model prediction is low-confidence for this game.
Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →