USC vs. Oregon: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
USCTeam statsORE
- Q4 5:30ORENoah Whittington 9 Yd Run (Atticus Sappington Kick)27–42
- Q4 11:32USCLake McRee 9 Yd pass from Jayden Maiava (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)27–35
- Q3 2:13OREKenyon Sadiq 28 Yd pass from Dante Moore (Atticus Sappington Kick)21–35
- Q3 5:48USCMakai Lemon 4 Yd pass from Jayden Maiava (Ryon Sayeri Kick)21–28
- Q2 1:52OREBryce Boettcher 1 Yd Run (Atticus Sappington Kick)14–28
- Q2 9:58OREMalik Benson 85 Yd Punt Return (Atticus Sappington Kick)14–21
- Q2 14:52USCTanook Hines 24 Yd pass from Makai Lemon (Ryon Sayeri Kick)14–14
- Q1 1:31OREKenyon Sadiq 8 Yd pass from Dante Moore (Atticus Sappington Kick)7–14
- Q1 7:05OREJordon Davison 11 Yd Run (Atticus Sappington Kick)7–7
- Q1 9:54USCMakai Lemon 8 Yd pass from Jayden Maiava (Ryon Sayeri Kick)7–0
How the model called it
What the numbers say
- USC played behind the sticks — third downs that long convert rarely, and ORE did not face the same ones. 3rd & 6.9 vs 3rd & 4.1
- USC lived on explosives rather than sustaining drives — a profile that vanished once those chunk plays were tackled. 16% explosive on a 36% success rate
- PassJayden Maiava 25/43, 306 YDS, 3 TD, 2 INT
- RushKing Miller 15 CAR, 30 YDS
- RecTanook Hines 6 REC, 141 YDS, 1 TD
- PassDante Moore 22/30, 257 YDS, 2 TD, 1 INT
- RushNoah Whittington 19 CAR, 104 YDS, 1 TD
- RecKenyon Sadiq 6 REC, 72 YDS, 2 TD
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsORE up 14 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,012 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q1 7:34ORE +18%
Shotgun #5 D.Moore pass complete short right to #23 D.Hill Jr caught at USC21, for 4 yards to the USC11 (#24 C.Pierce)
- Q1 9:54USC +18%
Shotgun #14 J.Maiava pass complete short right to #6 M.Lemon caught at ORE10, for 8 yards to the ORE00 TOUCHDOWN, 1ST DOWN
- Q2 9:58ORE +17%
#80 S.Johnson punt 49 yards to the ORE15 #4 M.Benson return 85 yards to the USC00 TOUCHDOWN
- Q2 14:52USC +16%
No Huddle-Shotgun #6 M.Lemon pass complete deep right to #16 T.Hines caught at ORE00, for 24 yards to the ORE00 TOUCHDOWN, 1ST DOWN
- Q1 1:31ORE +15%
Shotgun #5 D.Moore pass complete short middle to #18 K.Sadiq caught at USC00, for 8 yards to the USC00 TOUCHDOWN
- Q4 11:32USC +10%
Lake McRee 9 Yd pass from Jayden Maiava (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)
FAQ
What was the final score of USC vs. Oregon?
USC 27, Oregon 42.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
Yes — the model's pick (ORE) was correct.
| USC | ORE | |
|---|---|---|
| 382 | Total yards | 436 |
| 330 | Passing yards | 257 |
| 52 | Rushing yards | 179 |
| 23 | First downs | 26 |
| 7-16 | 3rd down | 7-12 |
| 2-4 | 4th down | 0-1 |
| 26/44 | Comp/Att | 22/30 |
| 7.5 | Yards per pass | 8.6 |
| 1.9 | Yards per rush | 4.4 |
| 2 | Turnovers | 1 |
| 8-103 | Penalties | 11-130 |
| 26:56 | Possession | 33:04 |
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 5:30ORENoah Whittington 9 Yd Run (Atticus Sappington Kick)27–42
- Q4 11:32USCLake McRee 9 Yd pass from Jayden Maiava (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)27–35
- Q3 2:13OREKenyon Sadiq 28 Yd pass from Dante Moore (Atticus Sappington Kick)21–35
- Q3 5:48USCMakai Lemon 4 Yd pass from Jayden Maiava (Ryon Sayeri Kick)21–28
- Q2 1:52OREBryce Boettcher 1 Yd Run (Atticus Sappington Kick)14–28
- Q2 9:58OREMalik Benson 85 Yd Punt Return (Atticus Sappington Kick)14–21
- Q2 14:52USCTanook Hines 24 Yd pass from Makai Lemon (Ryon Sayeri Kick)14–14
- Q1 1:31OREKenyon Sadiq 8 Yd pass from Dante Moore (Atticus Sappington Kick)7–14
- Q1 7:05OREJordon Davison 11 Yd Run (Atticus Sappington Kick)7–7
- Q1 9:54USCMakai Lemon 8 Yd pass from Jayden Maiava (Ryon Sayeri Kick)7–0
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (ORE Elo 2068, USC Elo 1916 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects ORE -8.5 (72% to win) — 3.0 points clear of USC's market line of -11.5. That is a disagreement, not a betting edge — sides we favour have not covered at better than breakeven.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2025
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profilesUSC leads 39–23–2 · Oregon has won 4 straight · 25% have been one-possession games
| USC | ORE | |
|---|---|---|
| +22.5 (#10) | CORE overall | +34.6 (#4) |
| +18 / -4 | offense / defense | +19 / -16 |
| 3.53 | points / drive | 3.09 |
| 2.14 | allowed / drive | 1.44 |
| 14% | three-and-outs | 15% |
| +6 | pass over expected | +2 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →