| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USC | 7 | 7 | 7 | 6 | 27 |
| ORE | 14 | 14 | 7 | 7 | 42 |
Our model blends Elo ratings (ORE Elo 2068, USC Elo 1916) plus home-field advantage. That projects ORE -8.5 (74% to win) — 3.0 points of value on USC versus the market line of -11.5.
ORE up 14 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,012 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
USC 27, Oregon 42.
Yes — the model's pick (ORE) was correct.
Why trust the number?Gridpex's model is walk-forward validated on 2014–24, out-of-sample: +0.28 pts mean Closing Line Value and 53.5% beat the close. We report the record and validate every pick against closing line value.
Called it — I had ORE pregame. ✓ We log the misses too, but not this one.
(10:11) #80 S.Johnson punt 49 yards to the ORE15 #4 M.Benson return 85 yards to the USC00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 09:58 #36 A.Sappington kick attempt good (H: #46 J.Ferguson-Reynolds, LS: #43 L.Basso)
(03:55) No Huddle-Shotgun #14 J.Maiava pass complete deep left to #8 J.Lane caught at ORE40, for 32 yards to the ORE36 (#5 T.Johnson; #21 A.Flowers), 1ST DOWN
(01:02) No Huddle-Shotgun #14 J.Maiava pass complete deep right to #16 T.Hines caught at ORE39, for 40 yards to the ORE34 (#5 T.Johnson), 1ST DOWN, PENALTY USC UNS: Unsportsmanlike Conduct (#16 T.Hines) 15 yards from ORE34 to ORE49
Team boards, recruiting & CFB talk — start a thread.
Open the boards →