USC vs. Nebraska: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
USCTeam statsNEB
- Q4 10:06USCKing Miller 6 Yd Run (Ryon Sayeri Kick)21–17
- Q4 12:53NEBKyle Cunanan 39 Yd Field Goal 14–17
- Q3 3:32USCJayden Maiava 16 Yd Run (King Miller Run for Two-Point Conversion)14–14
- Q2 1:37NEBEmmett Johnson 10 Yd Run (Kyle Cunanan Kick)6–14
- Q2 6:07USCRyon Sayeri 49 Yd Field Goal 6–7
- Q2 13:23USCRyon Sayeri 24 Yd Field Goal 3–7
- Q1 6:29NEBDane Key 14 Yd pass from Dylan Raiola (Kyle Cunanan Kick)0–7
How the model called it
- PassJayden Maiava 9/23, 135 YDS, 1 INT
- RushKing Miller 18 CAR, 129 YDS, 1 TD
- RecJaden Richardson 1 REC, 43 YDS
- PassDylan Raiola 10/15, 91 YDS, 1 TD
- RushEmmett Johnson 29 CAR, 165 YDS, 1 TD
- RecNyziah Hunter 5 REC, 30 YDS
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsTied entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,332 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q4 10:06USC +36%
No Huddle-Shotgun #30 K.Miller rush right for 6 yards gain to the NEB00 TOUCHDOWN
- Q3 3:32USC +34%
No Huddle-Shotgun #14 J.Maiava rush right for 16 yards gain to the NEB00 TOUCHDOWN, 1ST DOWN #30 K.Miller rush attempt Successful
- Q2 1:37NEB +24%
No Huddle #21 E.Johnson rush middle for 10 yards gain to the USC00 TOUCHDOWN, 1ST DOWN
- Q4 3:27USC +21%
#80 S.Johnson punt 41 yards to the NEB04
- Q1 6:29NEB +18%
No Huddle-Shotgun #15 D.Raiola pass complete short right to #6 D.Key caught at USC00, for 14 yards to the USC00 TOUCHDOWN, 1ST DOWN
- Q4 12:53NEB +18%
#91 K.Cunanan field goal attempt from 39 yards GOOD
FAQ
What was the final score of USC vs. Nebraska?
USC 21, Nebraska 17.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
Yes — the model's pick (USC) was correct.
| USC | NEB | |
|---|---|---|
| 337 | Total yards | 286 |
| 135 | Passing yards | 98 |
| 202 | Rushing yards | 188 |
| 20 | First downs | 20 |
| 6-14 | 3rd down | 5-12 |
| 0-1 | 4th down | 0-1 |
| 9/23 | Comp/Att | 15/22 |
| 5.9 | Yards per pass | 4.5 |
| 5.3 | Yards per rush | 4.7 |
| 1 | Turnovers | 1 |
| 8-49 | Penalties | 4-45 |
| 27:02 | Possession | 32:58 |
Costliest call
Q3 5:23 NEB field goal on 4th & 1 at USC 34. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 1.40 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 10:06USCKing Miller 6 Yd Run (Ryon Sayeri Kick)21–17
- Q4 12:53NEBKyle Cunanan 39 Yd Field Goal 14–17
- Q3 3:32USCJayden Maiava 16 Yd Run (King Miller Run for Two-Point Conversion)14–14
- Q2 1:37NEBEmmett Johnson 10 Yd Run (Kyle Cunanan Kick)6–14
- Q2 6:07USCRyon Sayeri 49 Yd Field Goal 6–7
- Q2 13:23USCRyon Sayeri 24 Yd Field Goal 3–7
- Q1 6:29NEBDane Key 14 Yd pass from Dylan Raiola (Kyle Cunanan Kick)0–7
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (NEB Elo 1645, USC Elo 1907 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects NEB +8.1 (31% to win) — 3.6 points clear of USC's market line of +4.5. That is a disagreement, not a betting edge — sides we favour have not covered at better than breakeven.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2025
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles| USC | NEB | |
|---|---|---|
| +22.5 (#10) | CORE overall | -1.8 (#68) |
| +18 / -4 | offense / defense | +0 / +2 |
| 3.53 | points / drive | 2.52 |
| 2.14 | allowed / drive | 2.50 |
| 14% | three-and-outs | 23% |
| +6 | pass over expected | +2 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →