USC
5-2·Big Ten· Elo 1907
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USC | 0 | 6 | 8 | 7 | 21 |
| NEB | 7 | 7 | 0 | 3 | 17 |
Our model blends Elo ratings (NEB Elo 1645, USC Elo 1907) plus home-field advantage. That projects NEB +8.1 (27% to win) — 3.6 points of value on USC versus the market line of +4.5.
Tied entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,332 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
USC 21, Nebraska 17.
Yes — the model's pick (USC) was correct.
Why trust the number?Gridpex's model is walk-forward validated on 2014–24, out-of-sample: +0.28 pts mean Closing Line Value and 53.5% beat the close. We report the record and validate every pick against closing line value.
Called it — I had USC pregame. ✓ We log the misses too, but not this one.
End of 4th quarter.
(12:46) No Huddle-Shotgun #14 J.Maiava pass complete deep right to #15 J.Richardson caught at NEB32, for 43 yards to the NEB32 (#21 R.Guthrie), out of bounds, 1ST DOWN
(04:56) No Huddle-Shotgun #14 J.Maiava pass complete deep right to #16 T.Hines caught at NEB32, for 29 yards to the NEB32, End Of Play, 1ST DOWN
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