USC
Big Ten· Elo 1869
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USC | 7 | 3 | 7 | 15 | 32 |
| ILL | 7 | 7 | 10 | 10 | 34 |
Our model blends Elo ratings (ILL Elo 1567, USC Elo 1869) plus home-field advantage. That projects ILL +9.7 (24% to win) — 3.2 points of value on USC versus the market line of +6.5.
ILL up 7 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,299 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
USC 32, Illinois 34.
No — the model picked USC, which didn't hit. We report the misses too.
Why trust the number?Gridpex's model is walk-forward validated on 2014–24, out-of-sample: +0.28 pts mean Closing Line Value and 53.5% beat the close. We report the record and validate every pick against closing line value.
I had USC pregame and it didn't hit. We report the misses — that was one.
Luke Altmyer pass complete to Kaden Feagin for 64 yds for a TD (David Olano KICK)
Kaden Feagin run for a loss of 2 yards to the USC 26 Kaden Feagin fumbled, recovered by USC Jahkeem Stewart
Kaden Feagin run for a loss of 2 yards to the USC 26 Kaden Feagin fumbled, recovered by USC Jahkeem Stewart
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