Bobcat Stadium (TX)Conference gameClosing line: TXST -20.5 · ULM covered
Sat, Nov 22, 10:00 PM
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ULM | 0 | 0 | 7 | 7 | 14 |
| TXST | 0 | 3 | 14 | 14 | 31 |
Our model blends Elo ratings (TXST Elo 1542, ULM Elo 1004) plus home-field advantage. That projects TXST -23.9 (96% to win) — 3.4 points of value on TXST versus the market line of -20.5.
TXST up 10 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,140 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
UL Monroe 14, Texas State 31.
Yes — the model's pick (TXST) was correct.
Why trust the number?Gridpex's model is walk-forward validated on 2014–24, out-of-sample: +0.28 pts mean Closing Line Value and 53.5% beat the close. We report the record and validate every pick against closing line value.
Called it — I had TXST pregame. ✓ We log the misses too, but not this one.
(00:24) No Huddle-Shotgun #10 A.Armenta pass complete deep middle to #4 J.Coulter caught at TXST45, for 24 yards to the TXST41 (#26 C.Davis), 1ST DOWN
(05:10) No Huddle-Shotgun #8 B.Jackson pass intercepted by #13 D.Godsey Jr at ULM00, Touchback
(11:17) No Huddle-Shotgun #6 Z.Palmer-Smith rush left for 29 yards gain to the TXST36 (#7 R.Nolan), out of bounds, 1ST DOWN
Team boards, recruiting & CFB talk — start a thread.
Open the boards →