| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | OT | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ULM | 13 | 0 | 0 | 14 | 0 | 27 |
| UL | 14 | 3 | 0 | 10 | 3 | 30 |
Our model blends Elo ratings (UL Elo 1354, ULM Elo 1013) plus home-field advantage. That projects UL -16 (88% to win) — 5.0 points of value on UL versus the market line of -11.
UL up 4 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,449 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
UL Monroe 27, Louisiana 30.
Yes — the model's pick (UL) was correct.
Why trust the number?Gridpex's model is walk-forward validated on 2014–24, out-of-sample: +0.28 pts mean Closing Line Value and 53.5% beat the close. We report the record and validate every pick against closing line value.
Called it — I had UL pregame. ✓ We log the misses too, but not this one.
(12:49) Shotgun #7 B.Davis rush left for 76 yards gain to the ULM00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 12:49, 1ST DOWN #95 T.Sterner kick attempt good (H: #92 N.Torney, LS: #48 H.Sims)
(09:32) No Huddle-Shotgun #10 A.Armenta pass complete deep right to #7 N.Trujillo caught at UL00, for 43 yards to the UL00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 09:32, 1ST DOWN #47 M.Ryan kick attempt good (H: #33 A.Wells, LS: #48 N.Wilson)
(14:50) No Huddle-Shotgun #10 A.Armenta pass complete short middle to #8 J.Bibbs caught at ULM43, for 68 yards to the UL00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 14:50, 1ST DOWN #47 M.Ryan kick attempt good (H: #33 A.Wells, LS: #48 N.Wilson)
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