UL Monroe vs. Louisiana: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
ULMTeam statsUL
- OT 0:00ULTony Sterner 19 Yd Field Goal 27–30
- Q4 3:36ULTony Sterner 30 Yd Field Goal 27–27
- Q4 9:32ULMNic Trujillo 43 Yd pass from Aidan Armenta (Makenzie Ryan Kick)27–24
- Q4 12:49ULBill Davis 76 Yd Run (Tony Sterner Kick)20–24
- Q4 14:50ULMJonathan Bibbs 68 Yd pass from Aidan Armenta (Makenzie Ryan Kick)20–17
- Q2 8:04ULTony Sterner 55 Yd Field Goal 13–17
- Q1 4:01ULSteven Blanco 4 Yd Run (Tony Sterner Kick)13–14
- Q1 8:59ULMZach Palmer-Smith 7 Yd Run (Jacob Chambliss Kick)13–7
- Q1 13:19ULMNic Trujillo 25 Yd pass from Aidan Armenta (Jacob Chambliss PAT blocked)6–7
- Q1 14:47ULJa'Corian Norris 96 Yd Kickoff Return (Tony Sterner Kick)0–7
How the model called it
- PassAidan Armenta 19/31, 311 YDS, 3 TD
- RushZach Palmer-Smith 20 CAR, 114 YDS, 1 TD
- RecNic Trujillo 4 REC, 133 YDS, 2 TD
- PassLunch Winfield 10/21, 82 YDS
- RushBill Davis 15 CAR, 126 YDS, 1 TD
- RecBill Davis 4 REC, 33 YDS
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsUL up 4 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,449 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q4 1:10ULM +50%
No Huddle-Shotgun #6 Z.Palmer-Smith rush middle for 2 yards gain to the ULM50 (#90 K.Miller)
- OT 0:00UL +48%
#95 T.Sterner field goal attempt from 19 yards GOOD
- Q4 1:19UL +44%
#92 N.Torney punt 40 yards to the ULM48 #2 J.Godfrey return 0 yards to the ULM48 (#13 C.Robertson)
- OT 0:00UL +42%
PENALTY ULM False Start (#75 Q.McBroom) 5 yards from UL25 to UL30. NO PLAY
- Q4 9:32ULM +40%
No Huddle-Shotgun #10 A.Armenta pass complete deep right to #7 N.Trujillo caught at UL00, for 43 yards to the UL00 TOUCHDOWN, 1ST DOWN
- Q4 1:42ULM +39%
#47 M.Ryan punt 46 yards to the UL11 fair catch by #0 R.Williams at UL11
FAQ
What was the final score of UL Monroe vs. Louisiana?
UL Monroe 27, Louisiana 30.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
Yes — the model's pick (UL) was correct.
| ULM | UL | |
|---|---|---|
| 516 | Total yards | 338 |
| 311 | Passing yards | 126 |
| 205 | Rushing yards | 212 |
| 29 | First downs | 17 |
| 5-13 | 3rd down | 6-16 |
| 0-1 | 4th down | 1-1 |
| 19/33 | Comp/Att | 16/30 |
| 9.4 | Yards per pass | 4.2 |
| 4.8 | Yards per rush | 5.6 |
| 2 | Turnovers | 0 |
| 8-52 | Penalties | 3-25 |
| 30:08 | Possession | 29:52 |
Costliest call
Q2 4:34 ULM go for it on 4th & 17 at UL 24. The model preferred field goal, a gap of 1.11 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- OT 0:00ULTony Sterner 19 Yd Field Goal 27–30
- Q4 3:36ULTony Sterner 30 Yd Field Goal 27–27
- Q4 9:32ULMNic Trujillo 43 Yd pass from Aidan Armenta (Makenzie Ryan Kick)27–24
- Q4 12:49ULBill Davis 76 Yd Run (Tony Sterner Kick)20–24
- Q4 14:50ULMJonathan Bibbs 68 Yd pass from Aidan Armenta (Makenzie Ryan Kick)20–17
- Q2 8:04ULTony Sterner 55 Yd Field Goal 13–17
- Q1 4:01ULSteven Blanco 4 Yd Run (Tony Sterner Kick)13–14
- Q1 8:59ULMZach Palmer-Smith 7 Yd Run (Jacob Chambliss Kick)13–7
- Q1 13:19ULMNic Trujillo 25 Yd pass from Aidan Armenta (Jacob Chambliss PAT blocked)6–7
- Q1 14:47ULJa'Corian Norris 96 Yd Kickoff Return (Tony Sterner Kick)0–7
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (UL Elo 1354, ULM Elo 1013 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects UL -16 (85% to win) — 5.0 points clear of UL's market line of -11. That is a disagreement, not a betting edge — sides we favour have not covered at better than breakeven.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2025
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profilesLouisiana leads 25–16 · Louisiana has won 3 straight · 59% have been one-possession games
| ULM | UL | |
|---|---|---|
| -15.2 (#108) | CORE overall | -20.6 (#126) |
| -8 / +7 | offense / defense | -8 / +13 |
| 1.37 | points / drive | 2.09 |
| 2.91 | allowed / drive | 2.56 |
| 32% | three-and-outs | 31% |
| -8 | pass over expected | -9 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →