UAB
3-8·American Athletic· Elo 1175
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| UAB | 7 | 3 | 7 | 14 | 31 |
| TLSA | 3 | 14 | 0 | 7 | 24 |
Our model blends Elo ratings (TLSA Elo 1119, UAB Elo 1175) plus home-field advantage. That projects TLSA -0.2 (50% to win) — 9.3 points of value on UAB versus the market line of -9.5.
Tied entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,332 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
UAB 31, Tulsa 24.
No — the model picked TLSA, which didn't hit. We report the misses too.
Why trust the number?Gridpex's model is walk-forward validated on 2014–24, out-of-sample: +0.28 pts mean Closing Line Value and 53.5% beat the close. We report the record and validate every pick against closing line value.
I had TLSA pregame and it didn't hit. We report the misses — that was one.
(05:44) Shotgun #7 J.Kitna pass complete deep middle to #5 K.Brown caught at Tulsa50, for 57 yards to the Tulsa13 (#21 S.Smith), 1ST DOWN
(15:00) No Huddle-Shotgun #10 B.Hayes sacked for loss of 4 yards to the UAB22 (#59 C.Burge), TURNOVER ON DOWNS
(11:24) #9 S.Kittleman rush middle for 0 yards to the UAB24 (#14 J.Vessel; #5 E.Toussom), TURNOVER ON DOWNS
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