UAB vs. Tulsa: Final Score, Recap & Advanced Stats

UAB3-8

▸

Tulsa4-7

Final

Chapman StadiumConference game

	1	2	3	4	T
UAB	7	3	7	14	31
TLSA	3	14	0	7	24

UABTeam statsTLSA

395Total yards357

166Pass159

229Rush198

19First downs19

9-173rd down4-13

1Turnovers2

35:23Possession24:37

Q4 3:40UABJevon Jackson 3 Yd Run (Jonah Delange Kick)31–24
Q4 10:42UABJevon Jackson 20 Yd Run (Jonah Delange Kick)24–24
Q4 14:55TLSAAjay Allen 22 Yd Run (Seth Morgan Kick)17–24
Q3 10:24UABBrandon Hawkins Jr. 8 Yd pass from Jalen Kitna (Jonah Delange Kick)17–17
Q2 0:32TLSABraylin Presley 5 Yd Run (Seth Morgan Kick)10–17
Q2 1:42UABJonah Delange 31 Yd Field Goal 10–10
Q2 7:51TLSAJewlyen Roberts 1 Yd pass from Baylor Hayes (Seth Morgan Kick)7–10
Q1 3:30TLSASeth Morgan 26 Yd Field Goal 7–3
Q1 7:13UABIverson Hooks 18 Yd pass from Jalen Kitna (Jonah Delange Kick)7–0

How the model called it

Model line

TLSA −0.2

market TLSA −9.5

Biggest swing

UAB +37%

Q4 10:42

Against the number

UAB covered

line TLSA −9.5

What the numbers say

TLSA played behind the sticks — third downs that long convert rarely, and UAB did not face the same ones. 3rd & 6.6 vs 3rd & 4.2

TLSA favored ↑50%UAB favored ↓

GridpexUAB 100%

Closing line

TLSA −9.5

Closing total

56.5

Model line

TLSA −0.2

Actual result

UAB 31 – 24 TLSA

DraftKings, liveTLSA −9.5total 56.5

UAB

PassJalen Kitna 14/17, 166 YDS, 2 TD
RushJevon Jackson 23 CAR, 117 YDS, 2 TD
RecKaleb Brown 2 REC, 61 YDS

Tulsa

PassBaylor Hayes 11/22, 159 YDS, 1 TD, 1 INT
RushAjay Allen 27 CAR, 129 YDS, 1 TD
RecZion Steptoe 3 REC, 59 YDS

25.6sper snap · in line with the national 24.5s

fastnational avgslow

Snaps run

139

Points / snap

0.40

This exact spot, historically

empirical, no ratings

Tied entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,332 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):

50%

TLSA win rate

How often the home team won from here

Most comparable games

LSam Houston vs Air Force3-13 LEastern Kentucky vs Western Carolina24-27 LArkansas vs BYU31-38 LAbilene Christian vs Incarnate Word10-24 WSt. Thomas (MN) vs Morehead State35-28

Q4 10:42UAB +37%
Shotgun #4 J.Jackson rush middle for 20 yards gain to the Tulsa00 TOUCHDOWN, 1ST DOWN
Q4 3:40UAB +34%
#4 J.Jackson rush right for 3 yards gain to the Tulsa00 TOUCHDOWN
Q4 14:55TLSA +29%
No Huddle-Shotgun #2 A.Allen rush left for 22 yards gain to the UAB00 TOUCHDOWN, 1ST DOWN
Q3 10:24UAB +25%
No Huddle-Shotgun #7 J.Kitna pass complete short left to #6 B.Hawkins Jr. caught at Tulsa02, for 8 yards to the Tulsa00 TOUCHDOWN
Q2 0:32TLSA +22%
No Huddle-Shotgun #1 B.Presley rush middle for 5 yards gain to the UAB00 TOUCHDOWN, 1ST DOWN
Q2 7:51TLSA +19%
PENALTY Tulsa False Start (#71 B.Ringleb) 5 yards from UAB03 to UAB08. NO PLAY

FAQ

What was the final score of UAB vs. Tulsa?

UAB 31, Tulsa 24.

Did Gridpex's model pick hit?

No — the model picked TLSA, which didn't hit. We report the misses too.

UAB

TLSA

44%

Success rate

46%

0.41

EPA / pass

-0.04

0.15

EPA / rush

0.09

41%

Early-down success

49%

55%

Pass success

44%

40%

Rush success

46%

12%

Explosive play rate (15+ yds)

15%

21%

Stuffed rush rate

22%

27%

Pass rate

38%

4.2

Avg 3rd-down distance

6.6

UAB

4.2 yards to go on 3rd down

73 scrimmage snaps

TLSA

6.6 yards to go on 3rd down

66 scrimmage snaps

UAB		TLSA
395	Total yards	357
166	Passing yards	159
229	Rushing yards	198
19	First downs	19
9-17	3rd down	4-13
1-2	4th down	1-4
14/18	Comp/Att	11/22
9.2	Yards per pass	7.2
4.2	Yards per rush	4.7
1	Turnovers	2
3-27	Penalties	2-10
35:23	Possession	24:37

Model prediction

how the number is built

Power rating (Elo)

TLSA 1119

UAB 1175

Projected spread

TLSA -0.2

incl. home edge

Model pick

TLSA

52% to win

Market spread

TLSA -9.5

sportsbook line

Model vs market

UAB

9.3 pts apart

Win prob: model / mkt

52%

TLSA · market 73%

Our model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (TLSA Elo 1119, UAB Elo 1175 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects TLSA -0.2 (52% to win) — 9.3 points clear of UAB's market line of -9.5. That is a disagreement, not a betting edge — sides we favour have not covered at better than breakeven.

Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).

Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation

Season form — 2025

nationally ranked

UAB2025 season · national rank shownTLSA

404.349th

Total yards / game

398.557th

5.857th

Yards / play

5.397th

265.627th

Passing yards / game

222.571st

138.887th

Rushing yards / game

176.048th

46.4%20th

3rd down %

37.9%88th

423.6118th

Yards allowed / game

396.890th

48.3%134th

3rd down % allowed

42.9%110th

-12129th

Turnover margin

-8117th

7.4120th

Penalties / game

5.130th

The matchup, in context

series history + adjusted profiles

UAB were +9.5 — a 28% shot

#66 of 112 in 2025 by biggest miss · #44 of 129 in 2025 by longest odds.

The 2025 upset archive →

Opponent-adjusted profile2025

UAB		TLSA
-15.8 (#112)	CORE overall	-8.2 (#90)
-4 / +11	offense / defense	-8 / +0
2.12	points / drive	1.91
3.61	allowed / drive	2.62
20%	three-and-outs	27%
+3	pass over expected	-4

Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.

CORE ratings →Drive efficiency →Play-calling →

Pro

Key matchups

The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.

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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →

Game Info

Kickoff: Sat, Nov 29, 3:00 PM EST
Venue: Chapman Stadium
Setting: Conference game
Model line: TLSA -0.2

The Model's Pick

Tulsa

to win · 52%

✗ Miss

Projected spreadTLSA -0.2

Market73%

Game Leaders

UAB

Pass Jalen Kitna14/17, 166 yds, 2 TD
Rush Jevon Jackson23 car, 117 yds, 2 TD
Rec Kaleb Brown2 rec, 61 yds

Tulsa

Pass Baylor Hayes11/22, 159 yds, 1 TD, 1 INT
Rush Ajay Allen27 car, 129 yds, 1 TD
Rec Zion Steptoe3 rec, 59 yds

Biggest Plays

UAB+4.1 EPA
(05:44) Shotgun #7 J.Kitna pass complete deep middle to #5 K.Brown caught at Tulsa50, for 57 yards to the Tulsa13 (#21 S.Smith), 1ST DOWN
UAB+-3.5 EPA
(15:00) No Huddle-Shotgun #10 B.Hayes sacked for loss of 4 yards to the UAB22 (#59 C.Burge), TURNOVER ON DOWNS
UAB+-3.4 EPA
(11:24) #9 S.Kittleman rush middle for 0 yards to the UAB24 (#14 J.Vessel; #5 E.Toussom), TURNOVER ON DOWNS

UABTeam statsTLSA

Scoring plays

How the model called it

What the numbers say

Win probability

How the line closed

Leaders

Tempo

This exact spot, historically

Fourth downs

What decided it

FAQ

What was the final score of UAB vs. Tulsa?

Did Gridpex's model pick hit?

Situational splits

Team stats

Fourth downs

Drive chart

Scoring plays

Model prediction

Season form — 2025

The matchup, in context

Key matchups

UAB vs. Tulsa: Final Score & Recap

UABTeam statsTLSA

How the model called it

What the numbers say

What was the final score of UAB vs. Tulsa?

Did Gridpex's model pick hit?

Key matchups