| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| UAB | 7 | 10 | 0 | 0 | 17 |
| RICE | 7 | 7 | 10 | 0 | 24 |
Our model blends Elo ratings (RICE Elo 1155, UAB Elo 1237) plus home-field advantage. That projects RICE +0.9 (47% to win), essentially in line with the market.
RICE up 7 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,299 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
UAB 17, Rice 24.
No — the model picked UAB, which didn't hit. We report the misses too.
Why trust the number?Gridpex's model is walk-forward validated on 2014–24, out-of-sample: +0.28 pts mean Closing Line Value and 53.5% beat the close. We report the record and validate every pick against closing line value.
I had UAB pregame and it didn't hit. We report the misses — that was one.
(00:03) No Huddle-Shotgun #15 R.Burton pass complete deep middle to #6 B.Hawkins Jr. caught at RICE00, for 21 yards to the RICE00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 00:03 #39 J.Delange kick attempt good (H: #27 P.Foley, LS: #47 C.Moser)
End of 3rd quarter.
(10:33) No Huddle-Shotgun #4 J.Jackson rush right for 51 yards gain to the RICE42 (#4 M.Williams), 1ST DOWN, PENALTY RICE Holding (#7 O.Porter) 10 yards from RICE42 to RICE32, 1ST DOWN
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