UAB vs. Rice: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
UABTeam statsRICE
- Q3 1:00RICEEnock Gota 38 Yd Field Goal 17–24
- Q3 9:29RICEAaron Turner 3 Yd pass from Chase Jenkins (Enock Gota Kick)17–21
- Q2 0:03UABBrandon Hawkins Jr. 21 Yd pass from Ryder Burton (Jonah Delange Kick)17–14
- Q2 2:35UABJonah Delange 20 Yd Field Goal 10–14
- Q2 10:47RICED'Andre Hardeman Jr. 1 Yd Run (Enock Gota Kick)7–14
- Q1 6:23RICETyson Thompson 23 Yd pass from Chase Jenkins (Enock Gota Kick)7–7
- Q1 11:08UABIverson Hooks 26 Yd pass from Ryder Burton (Jonah Delange Kick)7–0
How the model called it
- PassRyder Burton 18/34, 213 YDS, 2 TD
- RushJevon Jackson 15 CAR, 89 YDS
- RecIverson Hooks 6 REC, 89 YDS, 1 TD
- PassChase Jenkins 11/15, 41 YDS, 2 TD
- RushQuinton Jackson 22 CAR, 81 YDS
- RecTyson Thompson 3 REC, 33 YDS, 1 TD
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsRICE up 7 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,299 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q1 12:57UAB +35%
#27 P.Foley punt 52 yards to the RICE23 #11 T.Thompson return 12 yards to the RICE35 (#12 T.McNichols; #0 D.Hightower)
- Q4 6:36RICE +13%
#91 A.Bacchetta punt 47 yards to the UAB19 #5 E.Toussom return 2 yards to the UAB21 (#48 W.Freeman) PENALTY UAB Holding (#3 J.Ferguson) 9 yards from UAB19 to UAB10
- Q4 10:37RICE +12%
#91 A.Bacchetta punt 38 yards to the UAB07 fair catch by #0 I.Hooks at UAB07
- Q4 2:32RICE +11%
punt 44 yards to the UAB16 #0 I.Hooks return 28 yards to the UAB44 (#8 J.Mutombo)
- Q3 3:05RICE +10%
PENALTY UAB Offside (#4 A.Morrison) 5 yards from UAB49 to UAB44. NO PLAY
- Q4 10:26UAB +8%
No Huddle-Shotgun #4 J.Jackson rush right for 51 yards gain to the RICE42 (#4 M.Williams), 1ST DOWN, PENALTY RICE Holding (#7 O.Porter) 10 yards from RICE42 to RICE32,…
FAQ
What was the final score of UAB vs. Rice?
UAB 17, Rice 24.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
No — the model picked UAB, which didn't hit. We report the misses too.
| UAB | RICE | |
|---|---|---|
| 315 | Total yards | 232 |
| 213 | Passing yards | 41 |
| 102 | Rushing yards | 191 |
| 18 | First downs | 18 |
| 5-14 | 3rd down | 5-17 |
| 0-3 | 4th down | 4-5 |
| 18/34 | Comp/Att | 11/15 |
| 6.3 | Yards per pass | 2.7 |
| 3.5 | Yards per rush | 3.4 |
| 0 | Turnovers | 1 |
| 11-95 | Penalties | 3-22 |
| 25:09 | Possession | 34:51 |
Costliest call
Q2 2:35 UAB field goal on 4th & 2 at RICE 2. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 1.39 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q3 1:00RICEEnock Gota 38 Yd Field Goal 17–24
- Q3 9:29RICEAaron Turner 3 Yd pass from Chase Jenkins (Enock Gota Kick)17–21
- Q2 0:03UABBrandon Hawkins Jr. 21 Yd pass from Ryder Burton (Jonah Delange Kick)17–14
- Q2 2:35UABJonah Delange 20 Yd Field Goal 10–14
- Q2 10:47RICED'Andre Hardeman Jr. 1 Yd Run (Enock Gota Kick)7–14
- Q1 6:23RICETyson Thompson 23 Yd pass from Chase Jenkins (Enock Gota Kick)7–7
- Q1 11:08UABIverson Hooks 26 Yd pass from Ryder Burton (Jonah Delange Kick)7–0
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (RICE Elo 1155, UAB Elo 1237 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects RICE +0.9 (49% to win), essentially in line with the market.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2025
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profilesUAB leads 7–6 · 54% have been one-possession games
| UAB | RICE | |
|---|---|---|
| -15.8 (#112) | CORE overall | -26.8 (#132) |
| -4 / +11 | offense / defense | -20 / +7 |
| 2.12 | points / drive | 1.40 |
| 3.61 | allowed / drive | 3.09 |
| 20% | three-and-outs | 38% |
| +3 | pass over expected | -24 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →