FAU StadiumConference gameClosing line: FAU -4.5 · FAU covered
Sat, Nov 8, 8:00 PM
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TLSA | 0 | 6 | 12 | 3 | 21 |
| FAU | 10 | 21 | 3 | 6 | 40 |
Our model blends Elo ratings (FAU Elo 1218, TLSA Elo 1066) plus home-field advantage. That projects FAU -8.5 (74% to win) — 4.0 points of value on FAU versus the market line of -4.5.
FAU up 16 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,243 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
Tulsa 21, Florida Atlantic 40.
Yes — the model's pick (FAU) was correct.
Why trust the number?Gridpex's model is walk-forward validated on 2014–24, out-of-sample: +0.28 pts mean Closing Line Value and 53.5% beat the close. We report the record and validate every pick against closing line value.
Called it — I had FAU pregame. ✓ We log the misses too, but not this one.
Damarius McGhee 95 Yd Fumble Return (Garrison Smith Kick)
(06:06) No Huddle-Shotgun #10 C.Veltkamp pass complete short right to #3 J.Platt caught at Tulsa39, for 47 yards to the Tulsa00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 06:00, 1ST DOWN. The previous play is under automatic review - "Runner was inbounds". CALL UPHELD #37 G.Smith kick attempt good (H: #19 L.Lupo, LS: #43 J.Lee)
(14:19) No Huddle-Shotgun #10 C.Veltkamp rush middle for 2 yards loss to the Tulsa03 fumbled by #10 C.Veltkamp at Tulsa02 recovered by Tulsa #54 B.Turner Jr. at Tulsa03, End Of Play
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