Tulsa vs. Florida Atlantic: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
TLSATeam statsFAU
- Q4 9:58FAUEaston Messer 9 Yd pass from Zach Gibson (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)21–40
- Q4 13:01TLSASeth Morgan 22 Yd Field Goal 21–34
- Q3 2:38TLSAAjay Allen 2 Yd Run (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)18–34
- Q3 5:34FAUGarrison Smith 20 Yd Field Goal 12–34
- Q3 9:38TLSABaylor Hayes 7 Yd Run (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)12–31
- Q2 0:14FAUEaston Messer 11 Yd pass from Caden Veltkamp (Garrison Smith Kick)6–31
- Q2 0:58FAUDamarius McGhee 95 Yd Fumble Return (Garrison Smith Kick)6–24
- Q2 5:21FAUEaston Messer 44 Yd pass from Caden Veltkamp (Garrison Smith Kick)6–17
- Q2 7:39TLSASeth Morgan 49 Yd Field Goal 6–10
- Q2 9:56TLSASeth Morgan 35 Yd Field Goal 3–10
- Q1 6:00FAUJayshon Platt 47 Yd pass from Caden Veltkamp (Garrison Smith Kick)0–10
- Q1 12:47FAUGarrison Smith 35 Yd Field Goal 0–3
How the model called it
What the numbers say
- FAU played behind the sticks — third downs that long convert rarely, and TLSA did not face the same ones. 3rd & 8.3 vs 3rd & 5.7
- PassBaylor Hayes 24/46, 235 YDS, 2 INT
- RushAjay Allen 23 CAR, 118 YDS, 1 TD
- RecAjay Allen 7 REC, 67 YDS
- PassCaden Veltkamp 21/29, 272 YDS, 3 TD
- RushKaden Shields-Dutton 10 CAR, 107 YDS
- RecJayshon Platt 5 REC, 114 YDS, 1 TD
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsFAU up 16 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,243 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q2 5:21FAU +13%
No Huddle-Shotgun #10 C.Veltkamp pass complete deep left to #8 E.Messer caught at Tulsa10, for 44 yards to the Tulsa00 TOUCHDOWN, 1ST DOWN
- Q1 6:00FAU +12%
No Huddle-Shotgun #10 C.Veltkamp pass complete short right to #3 J.Platt caught at Tulsa39, for 47 yards to the Tulsa00 TOUCHDOWN, 1ST DOWN. The previous play is under…
- Q2 0:58FAU +7%
Damarius McGhee 95 Yd Fumble Return (Garrison Smith Kick)
- Q2 7:39TLSA +7%
#11 S.Morgan field goal attempt from 49 yards GOOD
- Q1 12:47FAU +6%
#37 G.Smith field goal attempt from 35 yards GOOD
- Q2 9:56TLSA +5%
#11 S.Morgan field goal attempt from 35 yards GOOD
FAQ
What was the final score of Tulsa vs. Florida Atlantic?
Tulsa 21, Florida Atlantic 40.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
Yes — the model's pick (FAU) was correct.
| TLSA | FAU | |
|---|---|---|
| 431 | Total yards | 420 |
| 235 | Passing yards | 311 |
| 196 | Rushing yards | 109 |
| 27 | First downs | 15 |
| 10-23 | 3rd down | 4-13 |
| 4-7 | 4th down | 2-3 |
| 24/46 | Comp/Att | 23/32 |
| 5.1 | Yards per pass | 9.7 |
| 3.7 | Yards per rush | 4.4 |
| 3 | Turnovers | 1 |
| 4-15 | Penalties | 6-60 |
| 36:47 | Possession | 23:13 |
Costliest call
Q3 5:34 FAU field goal on 4th & 3 at TLSA 3. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 0.83 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 9:58FAUEaston Messer 9 Yd pass from Zach Gibson (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)21–40
- Q4 13:01TLSASeth Morgan 22 Yd Field Goal 21–34
- Q3 2:38TLSAAjay Allen 2 Yd Run (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)18–34
- Q3 5:34FAUGarrison Smith 20 Yd Field Goal 12–34
- Q3 9:38TLSABaylor Hayes 7 Yd Run (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)12–31
- Q2 0:14FAUEaston Messer 11 Yd pass from Caden Veltkamp (Garrison Smith Kick)6–31
- Q2 0:58FAUDamarius McGhee 95 Yd Fumble Return (Garrison Smith Kick)6–24
- Q2 5:21FAUEaston Messer 44 Yd pass from Caden Veltkamp (Garrison Smith Kick)6–17
- Q2 7:39TLSASeth Morgan 49 Yd Field Goal 6–10
- Q2 9:56TLSASeth Morgan 35 Yd Field Goal 3–10
- Q1 6:00FAUJayshon Platt 47 Yd pass from Caden Veltkamp (Garrison Smith Kick)0–10
- Q1 12:47FAUGarrison Smith 35 Yd Field Goal 0–3
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (FAU Elo 1218, TLSA Elo 1066 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects FAU -8.5 (72% to win) — 4.0 points clear of FAU's market line of -4.5. That is a disagreement, not a betting edge — sides we favour have not covered at better than breakeven.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2025
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles| TLSA | FAU | |
|---|---|---|
| -8.2 (#90) | CORE overall | -13.1 (#103) |
| -8 / +0 | offense / defense | -1 / +12 |
| 1.91 | points / drive | 2.19 |
| 2.62 | allowed / drive | 3.05 |
| 27% | three-and-outs | 17% |
| -4 | pass over expected | +12 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →