| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TULN | 14 | 10 | 3 | 6 | 33 |
| USA | 14 | 0 | 0 | 17 | 31 |
Our model blends Elo ratings (USA Elo 1555, TULN Elo 1644) plus home-field advantage. That projects USA +1.2 (47% to win) — 12.3 points of value on USA versus the market line of +13.5.
Cumulative margin after each quarter. Above the line = TULN ahead, below = USA ahead.
Play-by-play win probability isn't available for this game — scoreboard margin by quarter shown instead.
TULN up 13 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,180 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
Tulane 33, South Alabama 31.
Yes — the model's pick (TULN) was correct.
Why trust the number?Gridpex's model is walk-forward validated on 2014–24, out-of-sample: +0.28 pts mean Closing Line Value and 53.5% beat the close. We report the record and validate every pick against closing line value.
Called it — I had TULN pregame. ✓ We log the misses too, but not this one.
Bishop Davenport pass complete to Devin Voisin for 65 yds for a TD (Hamilton DiBoyan KICK)
Bishop Davenport run for a loss of 4 yards to the TULN 22 Bishop Davenport fumbled, recovered by TULN E'zaiah Shine
Bishop Davenport run for 11 yds to the USA 35 for a 1ST down Tulane Penalty, Face Mask (15 yards) (Javion White) to the 50 yard line for a 1ST down
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