Tulane vs. South Alabama: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
TULNTeam statsUSA
- Q4 0:59USADevin Voisin 26 Yd pass from Bishop Davenport (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)33–31
- Q4 5:27USAKentrel Bullock 1 Yd Run (Bishop Davenport Run for Two-Point Conversion)33–25
- Q4 10:01TULNZuberi Mobley 28 Yd Run (Patrick Durkin PAT failed)33–17
- Q4 14:57USAHamilton DiBoyan 28 Yd Field Goal 27–17
- Q3 8:51TULNPatrick Durkin 34 Yd Field Goal 27–14
- Q2 0:49TULNPatrick Durkin 50 Yd Field Goal 24–14
- Q2 6:52TULNJake Retzlaff 1 Yd Run (Patrick Durkin Kick)21–14
- Q1 0:24TULNZuberi Mobley 16 Yd Run (Patrick Durkin Kick)14–14
- Q1 4:11TULNJohnny Pascuzzi 5 Yd pass from Jake Retzlaff (Patrick Durkin Kick)7–14
- Q1 7:11USADevin Voisin 65 Yd pass from Bishop Davenport (Hamilton DiBoyan Kick)0–14
- Q1 10:48USABishop Davenport 9 Yd Run (Hamilton DiBoyan Kick)0–7
How the model called it
- PassJake Retzlaff 13/24, 125 YDS, 1 TD
- RushZuberi Mobley 11 CAR, 82 YDS, 2 TD
- RecBryce Bohanon 5 REC, 62 YDS
- PassBishop Davenport 17/24, 231 YDS, 2 TD
- RushKentrel Bullock 24 CAR, 107 YDS, 1 TD
- RecDevin Voisin 8 REC, 152 YDS, 2 TD
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsTULN up 13 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,180 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q4 0:00TULN +41%
Alec Clark punt for 50 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the USA 44, Devin Voisin returns for 35 yds to the USA 44
- Q4 0:59USA +41%
Bishop Davenport pass complete to Devin Voisin for 26 yds for a TD (Two-Point Conversion failed)
- Q4 2:28TULN +27%
PENALTY TUL Delay Of Game (Retzlaff,Jake) 5 yards from USA45 to USA50. NO PLAY
- Q2 6:52TULN +20%
Jake Retzlaff run for 1 yd for a TD (Patrick Durkin KICK)
- Q1 14:53USA +20%
Kentrel Bullock run for 11 yds to the USA 36 for a 1ST down
- Q4 5:27USA +8%
Kentrel Bullock run for 1 yd for a TD (B. Davenport Run For Two-point Conversion)
FAQ
What was the final score of Tulane vs. South Alabama?
Tulane 33, South Alabama 31.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
Yes — the model's pick (TULN) was correct.
| TULN | USA | |
|---|---|---|
| 406 | Total yards | 421 |
| 165 | Passing yards | 231 |
| 241 | Rushing yards | 190 |
| 23 | First downs | 23 |
| 9-17 | 3rd down | 4-12 |
| 1-1 | 4th down | 2-4 |
| 16/27 | Comp/Att | 17/24 |
| 6.1 | Yards per pass | 9.6 |
| 5.4 | Yards per rush | 4.6 |
| 1 | Turnovers | 2 |
| 11-87 | Penalties | 2-10 |
| 34:29 | Possession | 25:31 |
Costliest call
Q2 5:03 USA punt on 4th & 2 at USA 33. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 0.25 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 0:59USADevin Voisin 26 Yd pass from Bishop Davenport (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)33–31
- Q4 5:27USAKentrel Bullock 1 Yd Run (Bishop Davenport Run for Two-Point Conversion)33–25
- Q4 10:01TULNZuberi Mobley 28 Yd Run (Patrick Durkin PAT failed)33–17
- Q4 14:57USAHamilton DiBoyan 28 Yd Field Goal 27–17
- Q3 8:51TULNPatrick Durkin 34 Yd Field Goal 27–14
- Q2 0:49TULNPatrick Durkin 50 Yd Field Goal 24–14
- Q2 6:52TULNJake Retzlaff 1 Yd Run (Patrick Durkin Kick)21–14
- Q1 0:24TULNZuberi Mobley 16 Yd Run (Patrick Durkin Kick)14–14
- Q1 4:11TULNJohnny Pascuzzi 5 Yd pass from Jake Retzlaff (Patrick Durkin Kick)7–14
- Q1 7:11USADevin Voisin 65 Yd pass from Bishop Davenport (Hamilton DiBoyan Kick)0–14
- Q1 10:48USABishop Davenport 9 Yd Run (Hamilton DiBoyan Kick)0–7
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (USA Elo 1555, TULN Elo 1644 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects USA +1.2 (48% to win) — 12.3 points clear of USA's market line of +13.5. That is a disagreement, not a betting edge — sides we favour have not covered at better than breakeven.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 15 · through week 2 · drive simulation
Season form — 2025
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles| TULN | USA | |
|---|---|---|
| +7.0 (#47) | CORE overall | -14.2 (#104) |
| +5 / -2 | offense / defense | -4 / +11 |
| 2.56 | points / drive | 2.35 |
| 2.20 | allowed / drive | 2.86 |
| 27% | three-and-outs | 26% |
| +2 | pass over expected | -11 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →