Toledo vs. Central Michigan: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
TOLTeam statsCMU
- Q4 1:49TOLChip Trayanum 42 Yd Run (Dylan Cunanan Kick)21–3
- Q4 8:41TOLKenji Christian 9 Yd Run (Dylan Cunanan Kick)14–3
- Q3 0:10TOLChip Trayanum 57 Yd pass from Kalieb Osborne (Dylan Cunanan Kick)7–3
- Q2 0:38CMUCade Graham 28 Yd Field Goal 0–3
How the model called it
- PassKalieb Osborne 5/7, 108 YDS, 1 TD
- RushChip Trayanum 16 CAR, 94 YDS, 1 TD
- RecJunior Vandeross III 4 REC, 71 YDS
- PassJoe Labas 19/30, 242 YDS, 1 INT
- RushBrock Townsend 14 CAR, 68 YDS
- RecTommy McIntosh 6 REC, 83 YDS
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsTOL up 4 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,449 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q3 0:10TOL +28%
No Huddle-Shotgun #7 K.Osborne pass complete short middle to #1 C.Trayanum caught at Toledo42, for 57 yards to the CMU00 TOUCHDOWN, 1ST DOWN
- Q4 8:41TOL +12%
No Huddle-Shotgun #10 K.Christian rush middle for 9 yards gain to the CMU00 TOUCHDOWN
- Q2 0:38CMU +11%
#47 C.Graham field goal attempt from 28 yards GOOD
- Q3 1:54TOL +11%
Shotgun #10 K.Christian rush middle for 8 yards gain to the Toledo39 (#85 J.Douglas; #40 L.Brown)
- Q3 4:52CMU +10%
Shotgun #22 B.Townsend rush right for 3 yards gain to the CMU24 (#58 A.Dunn Jr; #3 A.Fuller)
- Q4 11:55TOL +10%
Shotgun #1 C.Trayanum rush middle for 4 yards gain to the Toledo47 (#17 M.Blackwell; #47 C.Graham)
FAQ
What was the final score of Toledo vs. Central Michigan?
Toledo 21, Central Michigan 3.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
Yes — the model's pick (TOL) was correct.
| TOL | CMU | |
|---|---|---|
| 411 | Total yards | 323 |
| 206 | Passing yards | 242 |
| 205 | Rushing yards | 81 |
| 18 | First downs | 15 |
| 4-12 | 3rd down | 5-15 |
| 0-3 | 4th down | 0-4 |
| 14/24 | Comp/Att | 19/30 |
| 8.6 | Yards per pass | 8.1 |
| 5.5 | Yards per rush | 2.3 |
| 1 | Turnovers | 1 |
| 8-70 | Penalties | 6-47 |
| 28:34 | Possession | 31:26 |
Costliest call
Q3 10:18 TOL punt on 4th & 1 at TOL 29. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 1.11 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 1:49TOLChip Trayanum 42 Yd Run (Dylan Cunanan Kick)21–3
- Q4 8:41TOLKenji Christian 9 Yd Run (Dylan Cunanan Kick)14–3
- Q3 0:10TOLChip Trayanum 57 Yd pass from Kalieb Osborne (Dylan Cunanan Kick)7–3
- Q2 0:38CMUCade Graham 28 Yd Field Goal 0–3
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (CMU Elo 1291, TOL Elo 1642 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects CMU +11.6 (23% to win), essentially in line with the market.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2025
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profilesToledo leads 31–18–3 · Toledo has won 4 straight · 38% have been one-possession games
| TOL | CMU | |
|---|---|---|
| +18.3 (#19) | CORE overall | -6.9 (#87) |
| +3 / -15 | offense / defense | -4 / +3 |
| 2.25 | points / drive | 1.94 |
| 1.17 | allowed / drive | 2.13 |
| 26% | three-and-outs | 31% |
| -1 | pass over expected | -13 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →