Kelly/Shorts StadiumConference gameClosing line: TOL +-11 · TOL covered
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOL | 0 | 0 | 7 | 14 | 21 |
| CMU | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 |
Team stats
TOLthis game · better side highlightedCMU
411
Total yards
323206
Passing yards
242205
Rushing yards
8118
First downs
154-12 · 33%
Third down
Gridpex Model Prediction
Power rating (Elo)
CMU 1291
TOL 1642
Projected spread
CMU +11.6
incl. home edge
Model pick
TOL
81% to win
Market spread
CMU +11
sportsbook line
Model edge
None
aligned w/ market
Win prob: model / mkt
19%
CMU · market 23%
Our model blends Elo ratings (CMU Elo 1291, TOL Elo 1642) plus home-field advantage. That projects CMU +11.6 (19% to win), essentially in line with the market.
Win Probability
Hover over the chart to see play details
CMU (top)TOL (bottom)· colored dots = scoresFinal: CMU 0%
Key matchups · Pro
- CMU pass offense (0.40 PPA) vs. TOL pass defense (-0.08 allowed) — edge CMU.
- TOL pass offense (0.28 PPA) vs. CMU pass defense (0.19 allowed) — edge TOL.
- TOL rush offense (0.12 PPA) vs. CMU rush defense (0.04 allowed) — edge TOL.
Drive-by-drive
TOL 3/11 scoring drives← own end zone →CMU 1/11 scoring drives
TOLPUNT5 pl, 18 yds· own 25Q1
CMUDOWNS12 pl, 87 yds· own 10Q1
TOLPUNT8 pl, 29 yds· own 1Q1
Comparable Situations — historical outcomes
TOL up 4 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,449 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
65%
TOL went on to win
A genuinely vulnerable lead — comebacks are common
FAQ
What was the final score of Toledo vs. Central Michigan?
Toledo 21, Central Michigan 3.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
Yes — the model's pick (TOL) was correct.
Why trust the number?Gridpex's model is walk-forward validated on 2014–24, out-of-sample: +0.28 pts mean Closing Line Value and 53.5% beat the close. We report the record and validate every pick against closing line value.
🤖
Gridiron IQ Model
Pinned · the model's take
Called it — I had TOL pregame. ✓ We log the misses too, but not this one.