The Citadel vs. Ole Miss: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
The Citadel
Ole Miss8-1
▸Final
Vaught-Hemingway Stadium
THE Team statsMISS
106Total yards603
23Pass452
83Rush151
5First downs35
4-153rd down7-12
0Turnovers1
32:04Possession27:56
- Q4 6:24MISSDamien Taylor 1 Yd Run (Lucas Carneiro Kick)0–49
- Q3 11:31MISSCaleb Odom 1 Yd pass from Trinidad Chambliss (Lucas Carneiro Kick)0–42
- Q2 0:45MISSKewan Lacy 3 Yd Run (Lucas Carneiro Kick)0–35
- Q2 10:48MISSCayden Lee 22 Yd pass from Trinidad Chambliss (Lucas Carneiro Kick)0–28
- Q1 0:23MISSWinston Watkins 11 Yd pass from Trinidad Chambliss (Lucas Carneiro Kick)0–21
- Q1 6:34MISSKewan Lacy 15 Yd Run (Lucas Carneiro Kick)0–14
- Q1 11:43MISSKewan Lacy 2 Yd Run (Lucas Carneiro Kick)0–7
How the model called it
Market line
MISS −52
Against the number
THE covered
line MISS −52
What the numbers say
- THE played behind the sticks — third downs that long convert rarely, and MISS did not face the same ones. 3rd & 8.2 vs 3rd & 4.1
Kickoff153 plays →Final
Tap or hover on the chart to see play details
MISS (top)THE (bottom)· colored dots = scoresFinal: MISS 100%
Closing line
MISS −52
Closing total
63.5
Model line
—
Actual result
THE 0 – 49 MISS
The Citadel
- PassCobey Thompkins 3/6, 23 YDS
- RushBeau Herrington 7 CAR, 53 YDS
- RecJihad Marks 1 REC, 16 YDS
Ole Miss
- PassTrinidad Chambliss 29/33, 333 YDS, 3 TD
- RushKewan Lacy 11 CAR, 49 YDS, 3 TD
- RecHarrison Wallace III 8 REC, 87 YDS
26.5sper snap · slower the national 24.5s
fastnational avgslow
Snaps run
135
Points / snap
0.36
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsMISS up 42 entering the 4th quarter. Across 170 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
100%
MISS went on to win
A near-lock historically
FAQ
What was the final score of The Citadel vs. Ole Miss?
The Citadel 0, Ole Miss 49.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
Yes — the model's pick (MISS) was correct.
THE
MISS
18%
Success rate
69%
-0.00
EPA / pass
0.50
-0.33
EPA / rush
0.42
15%
Early-down success
73%
10%
Pass success
69%
20%
Rush success
71%
4%
Explosive play rate (15+ yds)
19%
50%
Stuffed rush rate
21%
20%
Pass rate
60%
8.2
Avg 3rd-down distance
4.1
THE
8.2 yards to go on 3rd down
50 scrimmage snaps
MISS
4.1 yards to go on 3rd down
85 scrimmage snaps
| THE | MISS | |
|---|---|---|
| 106 | Total yards | 603 |
| 23 | Passing yards | 452 |
| 83 | Rushing yards | 151 |
| 5 | First downs | 35 |
| 4-15 | 3rd down | 7-12 |
| 0-1 | 4th down | 1-3 |
| 3/8 | Comp/Att | 37/46 |
| 2.9 | Yards per pass | 9.8 |
| 2.0 | Yards per rush | 4.3 |
| 0 | Turnovers | 1 |
| 5-52 | Penalties | 3-24 |
| 32:04 | Possession | 27:56 |
THE
9/10 with the model
−0.4 pts · −0.0% win prob
MISS
4/4 with the model
nothing given up
Costliest call
Q3 7:00 THE punt on 4th & 3 at THE 43. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 0.35 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finishTHE 0/13 scoring drives← own end zone →MISS 7/12 scoring drives
MISSTD10 pl, 87 yds· own 13Q1
THE PUNT3 pl, 1 yds· own 25Q1
MISSTD9 pl, 77 yds· own 23Q1
THE PUNT3 pl, 6 yds· own 25Q1
MISSDOWNS4 pl, 7 yds· own 23Q1
THE MISS4 pl, 2 yds· opp 30Q1
MISSTD3 pl, 72 yds· own 28Q1
THE PUNT3 pl, 0 yds· own 25Q1
MISSTD7 pl, 68 yds· own 32Q2
THE PUNT9 pl, 30 yds· own 25Q2
MISSTD11 pl, 80 yds· own 20Q2
THE END2 pl, 4 yds· own 25Q2
THE PUNT3 pl, -10 yds· own 25Q3
MISSTD5 pl, 53 yds· own 47Q3
THE PUNT6 pl, 18 yds· own 25Q3
MISSPUNT3 pl, 6 yds· own 14Q3
THE DOWNS8 pl, 60 yds· own 25Q3
MISSINT5 pl, 40 yds· own 15Q3
THE MISS4 pl, 3 yds· opp 17Q4
MISSPUNT3 pl, 0 yds· own 20Q4
THE PUNT3 pl, -6 yds· own 21Q4
MISSTD9 pl, 61 yds· own 39Q4
THE PUNT3 pl, -11 yds· own 35Q4
MISSDOWNS12 pl, 70 yds· own 22Q4
THE END1 pl, -1 yds· own 8Q4
- Q4 6:24MISSDamien Taylor 1 Yd Run (Lucas Carneiro Kick)0–49
- Q3 11:31MISSCaleb Odom 1 Yd pass from Trinidad Chambliss (Lucas Carneiro Kick)0–42
- Q2 0:45MISSKewan Lacy 3 Yd Run (Lucas Carneiro Kick)0–35
- Q2 10:48MISSCayden Lee 22 Yd pass from Trinidad Chambliss (Lucas Carneiro Kick)0–28
- Q1 0:23MISSWinston Watkins 11 Yd pass from Trinidad Chambliss (Lucas Carneiro Kick)0–21
- Q1 6:34MISSKewan Lacy 15 Yd Run (Lucas Carneiro Kick)0–14
- Q1 11:43MISSKewan Lacy 2 Yd Run (Lucas Carneiro Kick)0–7
Model prediction
how the number is builtOne or both teams lack a power rating (often an FCS opponent), so the model prediction is low-confidence for this game.
Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →