Texas vs. Mississippi State: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
TEXTeam statsMSST
- OT 0:00TEXEmmett Mosley V 10 Yd pass from Matthew Caldwell (Mason Shipley Kick)45–38
- Q4 1:47TEXRyan Niblett 79 Yd Punt Return (Mason Shipley Kick)38–38
- Q4 4:14TEXMason Shipley 26 Yd Field Goal 31–38
- Q4 9:34TEXEmmett Mosley V 21 Yd pass from Arch Manning (Mason Shipley Kick)28–38
- Q4 12:29MSSTDavon Booth 62 Yd pass from Blake Shapen (Kyle Ferrie Kick)21–38
- Q4 13:15TEXParker Livingstone 6 Yd pass from Arch Manning (Mason Shipley Kick)21–31
- Q3 0:26MSSTBrenen Thompson 4 Yd pass from Blake Shapen (Kyle Ferrie Kick)14–31
- Q2 0:38MSSTBrenen Thompson 23 Yd pass from Blake Shapen (Kyle Ferrie Kick)14–24
- Q2 2:30MSSTKyle Ferrie 24 Yd Field Goal 14–17
- Q2 9:21MSSTSeydou Traore 1 Yd pass from Kamario Taylor (Kyle Ferrie Kick)14–14
- Q2 12:41TEXParker Livingstone 1 Yd pass from Arch Manning (Mason Shipley Kick)14–7
- Q1 5:14MSSTSam West 13 Yd pass from Blake Shapen (Kyle Ferrie Kick)7–7
- Q1 13:01TEXArch Manning 3 Yd Run (Mason Shipley Kick)7–0
How the model called it
What the numbers say
- MSST lived on explosives rather than sustaining drives — a profile that vanished once those chunk plays were tackled. 15% explosive on a 40% success rate
- PassArch Manning 29/46, 346 YDS, 3 TD, 1 INT
- RushQuintrevion Wisner 12 CAR, 41 YDS
- RecRyan Wingo 5 REC, 184 YDS
- PassBlake Shapen 26/42, 381 YDS, 4 TD
- RushDavon Booth 24 CAR, 99 YDS
- RecDavon Booth 3 REC, 85 YDS, 1 TD
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsMSST up 17 entering the 4th quarter. Across 841 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q1 11:59TEX +67%
#88 E.Pulliam punt 58 yards to the TEX10 PENALTY TEX Illegal Block in Back (#4 J.McDonald) 5 yards from TEX10 to TEX05
- Q4 0:03MSST +64%
No Huddle #16 A.Manning rush middle for 0 yards to the TEX01 (#40 N.Mitchell; #27 R.Hibbler)
- Q4 0:13MSST +35%
PENALTY MSU Delay Of Game (#2 B.Shapen) 5 yards from MSU50 to MSU45. NO PLAY
- Q4 1:40TEX +34%
No Huddle-Shotgun #6 D.Booth rush middle for 4 yards gain to the MSU29 (#91 E.Burke)
- Q3 0:26MSST +31%
Brenen Thompson 4 Yd pass from Blake Shapen (Kyle Ferrie Kick)
- Q4 12:29MSST +23%
Davon Booth 62 Yd pass from Blake Shapen (Kyle Ferrie Kick)
FAQ
What was the final score of Texas vs. Mississippi State?
Texas 45, Mississippi State 38.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
Yes — the model's pick (TEX) was correct.
| TEX | MSST | |
|---|---|---|
| 428 | Total yards | 445 |
| 356 | Passing yards | 382 |
| 72 | Rushing yards | 63 |
| 22 | First downs | 25 |
| 8-20 | 3rd down | 6-19 |
| 0-0 | 4th down | 1-4 |
| 30/47 | Comp/Att | 27/43 |
| 7.6 | Yards per pass | 8.9 |
| 2.3 | Yards per rush | 1.5 |
| 1 | Turnovers | 1 |
| 9-61 | Penalties | 8-41 |
| 30:01 | Possession | 29:59 |
Costliest call
Q3 8:46 MSST punt on 4th & 1 at MSST 40. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 1.09 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- OT 0:00TEXEmmett Mosley V 10 Yd pass from Matthew Caldwell (Mason Shipley Kick)45–38
- Q4 1:47TEXRyan Niblett 79 Yd Punt Return (Mason Shipley Kick)38–38
- Q4 4:14TEXMason Shipley 26 Yd Field Goal 31–38
- Q4 9:34TEXEmmett Mosley V 21 Yd pass from Arch Manning (Mason Shipley Kick)28–38
- Q4 12:29MSSTDavon Booth 62 Yd pass from Blake Shapen (Kyle Ferrie Kick)21–38
- Q4 13:15TEXParker Livingstone 6 Yd pass from Arch Manning (Mason Shipley Kick)21–31
- Q3 0:26MSSTBrenen Thompson 4 Yd pass from Blake Shapen (Kyle Ferrie Kick)14–31
- Q2 0:38MSSTBrenen Thompson 23 Yd pass from Blake Shapen (Kyle Ferrie Kick)14–24
- Q2 2:30MSSTKyle Ferrie 24 Yd Field Goal 14–17
- Q2 9:21MSSTSeydou Traore 1 Yd pass from Kamario Taylor (Kyle Ferrie Kick)14–14
- Q2 12:41TEXParker Livingstone 1 Yd pass from Arch Manning (Mason Shipley Kick)14–7
- Q1 5:14MSSTSam West 13 Yd pass from Blake Shapen (Kyle Ferrie Kick)7–7
- Q1 13:01TEXArch Manning 3 Yd Run (Mason Shipley Kick)7–0
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (MSST Elo 1495, TEX Elo 1944 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects MSST +15.6 (16% to win) — 7.1 points clear of TEX's market line of +8.5. That is a disagreement, not a betting edge — sides we favour have not covered at better than breakeven.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2025
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles| TEX | MSST | |
|---|---|---|
| +14.3 (#28) | CORE overall | +0.1 (#64) |
| +5 / -9 | offense / defense | -1 / -1 |
| 2.55 | points / drive | 2.07 |
| 1.74 | allowed / drive | 2.54 |
| 23% | three-and-outs | 27% |
| +4 | pass over expected | -4 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →