| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TENN | 21 | 14 | 14 | 7 | 56 |
| UK | 7 | 14 | 6 | 7 | 34 |
Our model blends Elo ratings (UK Elo 1533, TENN Elo 1801) plus home-field advantage. That projects UK +8.3 (27% to win), essentially in line with the market.
TENN up 22 entering the 4th quarter. Across 824 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
Tennessee 56, Kentucky 34.
Yes — the model's pick (TENN) was correct.
Why trust the number?Gridpex's model is walk-forward validated on 2014–24, out-of-sample: +0.28 pts mean Closing Line Value and 53.5% beat the close. We report the record and validate every pick against closing line value.
Called it — I had TENN pregame. ✓ We log the misses too, but not this one.
Edrees Farooq 45 Yd Interception Return (Max Gilbert Kick)
(06:31) Shotgun #8 C.Boley pass complete short right to #1 K.Law caught at UK25, for 71 yards to the UT00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 06:19, 1ST DOWN #91 J.Kauwe kick attempt good (H: #93 W.Berry, LS: #42 A.McLaughlin)
End of 1st quarter.
Team boards, recruiting & CFB talk — start a thread.
Open the boards →
