Tennessee vs. Kentucky: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
TENNTeam statsUK
- Q4 8:12UKJ.J. Hester 7 Yd pass from Cutter Boley (Jacob Kauwe Kick)56–34
- Q4 13:35TENNDeSean Bishop 5 Yd Run (Max Gilbert Kick)56–27
- Q3 0:54UKDJ Miller 28 Yd pass from Cutter Boley (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)49–27
- Q3 5:46TENNPeyton Lewis 2 Yd Run (Max Gilbert Kick)49–21
- Q3 10:40TENNMike Matthews 62 Yd pass from Joey Aguilar (Max Gilbert Kick)42–21
- Q2 0:05TENNEthan Davis 13 Yd pass from Joey Aguilar (Max Gilbert Kick)35–21
- Q2 1:37UKJ.J. Hester 3 Yd pass from Cutter Boley (Jacob Kauwe Kick)28–21
- Q2 12:39UKDJ Miller 56 Yd pass from Cutter Boley (Jacob Kauwe Kick)28–14
- Q2 13:52TENNDeSean Bishop 1 Yd Run (Max Gilbert Kick)28–7
- Q1 1:49TENNStar Thomas 1 Yd Run (Max Gilbert Kick)21–7
- Q1 6:19UKKendrick Law 71 Yd pass from Cutter Boley (Jacob Kauwe Kick)14–7
- Q1 6:56TENNEdrees Farooq 45 Yd Interception Return (Max Gilbert Kick)14–0
- Q1 13:41TENNChris Brazzell II 35 Yd pass from Joey Aguilar (Max Gilbert Kick)7–0
How the model called it
What the numbers say
- UK played behind the sticks — third downs that long convert rarely, and TENN did not face the same ones. 3rd & 8.1 vs 3rd & 6.0
- PassJoey Aguilar 20/26, 396 YDS, 3 TD
- RushStar Thomas 10 CAR, 64 YDS, 1 TD
- RecChris Brazzell II 4 REC, 138 YDS, 1 TD
- PassCutter Boley 26/35, 330 YDS, 5 TD, 1 INT
- RushDante Dowdell 12 CAR, 52 YDS
- RecDJ Miller 5 REC, 120 YDS, 2 TD
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsTENN up 22 entering the 4th quarter. Across 824 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q2 0:05TENN +13%
No Huddle-Shotgun #6 J.Aguilar pass complete short middle to #0 E.Davis caught at UK00, for 13 yards to the UK00 TOUCHDOWN, 1ST DOWN
- Q2 1:37UK +12%
Shotgun #8 C.Boley pass complete short middle to #4 J.Hester caught at UT00, for 3 yards to the UT00 TOUCHDOWN
- Q1 1:49TENN +10%
Shotgun #9 S.Thomas rush middle for 1 yard gain to the UK00 TOUCHDOWN
- Q2 13:52TENN +5%
#18 D.Bishop rush left for 1 yard gain to the UK00 TOUCHDOWN
FAQ
What was the final score of Tennessee vs. Kentucky?
Tennessee 56, Kentucky 34.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
Yes — the model's pick (TENN) was correct.
| TENN | UK | |
|---|---|---|
| 504 | Total yards | 476 |
| 396 | Passing yards | 330 |
| 108 | Rushing yards | 146 |
| 24 | First downs | 25 |
| 4-8 | 3rd down | 5-12 |
| 1-1 | 4th down | 1-1 |
| 20/26 | Comp/Att | 26/36 |
| 15.2 | Yards per pass | 9.2 |
| 3.3 | Yards per rush | 3.9 |
| 0 | Turnovers | 2 |
| 6-56 | Penalties | 8-73 |
| 23:57 | Possession | 36:03 |
Costliest call
Q1 4:00 UK punt on 4th & 2 at UK 34. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 0.13 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 8:12UKJ.J. Hester 7 Yd pass from Cutter Boley (Jacob Kauwe Kick)56–34
- Q4 13:35TENNDeSean Bishop 5 Yd Run (Max Gilbert Kick)56–27
- Q3 0:54UKDJ Miller 28 Yd pass from Cutter Boley (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)49–27
- Q3 5:46TENNPeyton Lewis 2 Yd Run (Max Gilbert Kick)49–21
- Q3 10:40TENNMike Matthews 62 Yd pass from Joey Aguilar (Max Gilbert Kick)42–21
- Q2 0:05TENNEthan Davis 13 Yd pass from Joey Aguilar (Max Gilbert Kick)35–21
- Q2 1:37UKJ.J. Hester 3 Yd pass from Cutter Boley (Jacob Kauwe Kick)28–21
- Q2 12:39UKDJ Miller 56 Yd pass from Cutter Boley (Jacob Kauwe Kick)28–14
- Q2 13:52TENNDeSean Bishop 1 Yd Run (Max Gilbert Kick)28–7
- Q1 1:49TENNStar Thomas 1 Yd Run (Max Gilbert Kick)21–7
- Q1 6:19UKKendrick Law 71 Yd pass from Cutter Boley (Jacob Kauwe Kick)14–7
- Q1 6:56TENNEdrees Farooq 45 Yd Interception Return (Max Gilbert Kick)14–0
- Q1 13:41TENNChris Brazzell II 35 Yd pass from Joey Aguilar (Max Gilbert Kick)7–0
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (UK Elo 1533, TENN Elo 1801 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects UK +8.3 (30% to win), essentially in line with the market.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2025
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profilesTennessee leads 84–25–9 · Tennessee has won 5 straight · 41% have been one-possession games
| TENN | UK | |
|---|---|---|
| +15.0 (#26) | CORE overall | +5.8 (#52) |
| +16 / +1 | offense / defense | -2 / -8 |
| 3.27 | points / drive | 1.77 |
| 2.38 | allowed / drive | 2.42 |
| 17% | three-and-outs | 26% |
| +1 | pass over expected | -1 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →