| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TCU | 0 | 10 | 3 | 0 | 13 |
| BYU | 10 | 17 | 3 | 14 | 44 |
Our model blends Elo ratings (BYU Elo 1688, TCU Elo 1689) plus home-field advantage. That projects BYU -2.4 (57% to win), essentially in line with the market.
BYU up 17 entering the 4th quarter. Across 841 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
TCU 13, BYU 44.
Yes — the model's pick (BYU) was correct.
Why trust the number?Gridpex's model is walk-forward validated on 2014–24, out-of-sample: +0.28 pts mean Closing Line Value and 53.5% beat the close. We report the record and validate every pick against closing line value.
Called it — I had BYU pregame. ✓ We log the misses too, but not this one.
(04:23) Shotgun #10 J.Hoover pass intercepted by #28 T.Wall at BYU32 #28 T.Wall return 68 yards to the TCU00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 04:09 #44 W.Ferrin kick attempt good (H: #35 S.Vander Haar, LS: #26 G.Grimes)
End of 2nd quarter.
(10:47) Shotgun #47 B.Bachmeier pass complete deep right to #11 P.Kingston caught at TCU34, for 30 yards to the TCU34 (#26 V.Glover), 1ST DOWN
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