TCU vs. BYU: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
TCUTeam statsBYU
- Q4 4:09BYUTanner Wall 68 Yd Interception Return (Will Ferrin Kick)13–44
- Q4 13:36BYULJ Martin 1 Yd Run (Will Ferrin Kick)13–37
- Q3 4:08BYUWill Ferrin 29 Yd Field Goal 13–30
- Q3 10:13TCUNate McCashland 33 Yd Field Goal 13–27
- Q2 0:00BYUWill Ferrin 35 Yd Field Goal 10–27
- Q2 1:14TCUJon Denman 13 Yd Run (Nate McCashland Kick)10–24
- Q2 6:00BYUCarsen Ryan 43 Yd pass from Bear Bachmeier (Will Ferrin Kick)3–24
- Q2 7:17TCUNate McCashland 22 Yd Field Goal 3–17
- Q2 10:16BYUBear Bachmeier 17 Yd Run (Will Ferrin Kick)0–17
- Q1 2:13BYUParker Kingston 11 Yd Run (Will Ferrin Kick)0–10
- Q1 10:27BYUWill Ferrin 52 Yd Field Goal 0–3
How the model called it
What the numbers say
- TCU lived on explosives rather than sustaining drives — a profile that vanished once those chunk plays were tackled. 19% explosive on a 39% success rate
- PassJosh Hoover 10/23, 183 YDS, 2 INT
- RushJeremy Payne 9 CAR, 55 YDS
- RecEric McAlister 4 REC, 107 YDS
- PassBear Bachmeier 23/33, 296 YDS, 1 TD
- RushLJ Martin 21 CAR, 88 YDS, 1 TD
- RecParker Kingston 5 REC, 80 YDS
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsBYU up 17 entering the 4th quarter. Across 841 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q1 12:46BYU +15%
Shotgun #4 L.Martin rush middle for 4 yards gain to the BYU28 (#0 Z.Chapman; #2 J.Johnson)
- Q2 11:42BYU +11%
Shotgun #47 B.Bachmeier rush middle for 1 yard loss to the TCU25 (#11 D.Deal)
- Q2 1:14TCU +7%
#13 J.Denman rush middle for 13 yards gain to the BYU00 TOUCHDOWN, 1ST DOWN
- Q3 4:08BYU +7%
#44 W.Ferrin field goal attempt from 29 yards GOOD
- Q2 6:00BYU +7%
Shotgun #47 B.Bachmeier pass complete short middle to #20 C.Ryan caught at TCU35, for 43 yards to the TCU00 TOUCHDOWN, 1ST DOWN. The previous play is under automatic r…
- Q2 0:00BYU +6%
Will Ferrin 35 Yd Field Goal
FAQ
What was the final score of TCU vs. BYU?
TCU 13, BYU 44.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
Yes — the model's pick (BYU) was correct.
| TCU | BYU | |
|---|---|---|
| 298 | Total yards | 447 |
| 183 | Passing yards | 296 |
| 115 | Rushing yards | 151 |
| 15 | First downs | 28 |
| 1-10 | 3rd down | 6-12 |
| 1-2 | 4th down | 2-3 |
| 10/23 | Comp/Att | 23/33 |
| 8.0 | Yards per pass | 9.0 |
| 3.4 | Yards per rush | 3.9 |
| 2 | Turnovers | 1 |
| 5-45 | Penalties | 2-25 |
| 23:55 | Possession | 36:05 |
Costliest call
Q4 10:35 BYU punt on 4th & 4 at BYU 43. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 0.14 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 4:09BYUTanner Wall 68 Yd Interception Return (Will Ferrin Kick)13–44
- Q4 13:36BYULJ Martin 1 Yd Run (Will Ferrin Kick)13–37
- Q3 4:08BYUWill Ferrin 29 Yd Field Goal 13–30
- Q3 10:13TCUNate McCashland 33 Yd Field Goal 13–27
- Q2 0:00BYUWill Ferrin 35 Yd Field Goal 10–27
- Q2 1:14TCUJon Denman 13 Yd Run (Nate McCashland Kick)10–24
- Q2 6:00BYUCarsen Ryan 43 Yd pass from Bear Bachmeier (Will Ferrin Kick)3–24
- Q2 7:17TCUNate McCashland 22 Yd Field Goal 3–17
- Q2 10:16BYUBear Bachmeier 17 Yd Run (Will Ferrin Kick)0–17
- Q1 2:13BYUParker Kingston 11 Yd Run (Will Ferrin Kick)0–10
- Q1 10:27BYUWill Ferrin 52 Yd Field Goal 0–3
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (BYU Elo 1688, TCU Elo 1689 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects BYU -2.4 (57% to win), essentially in line with the market.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2025
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profilesTCU leads 7–6 · 15% have been one-possession games
| TCU | BYU | |
|---|---|---|
| +13.2 (#31) | CORE overall | +18.0 (#20) |
| +6 / -7 | offense / defense | +10 / -8 |
| 2.55 | points / drive | 2.61 |
| 2.13 | allowed / drive | 1.85 |
| 25% | three-and-outs | 19% |
| +7 | pass over expected | -0 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →