Southern Miss vs. Louisiana: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
USMTeam statsUL
- Q4 3:43USMTeam Safety 22–10
- Q3 3:40USMMicah Davis 98 Yd pass from Braylon Braxton (Creighton Wilbanks Kick)20–10
- Q3 9:35ULTony Sterner 24 Yd Field Goal 13–10
- Q2 0:00USMCreighton Wilbanks 52 Yd Field Goal 13–7
- Q2 1:29USMCreighton Wilbanks 32 Yd Field Goal 10–7
- Q2 7:42USMMatt Jones 1 Yd Run (Creighton Wilbanks Kick)7–7
- Q1 3:21ULLunch Winfield 3 Yd Run (Tony Sterner Kick)0–7
How the model called it
- PassBraylon Braxton 13/18, 238 YDS, 1 TD, 1 INT
- RushJeffery Pittman 21 CAR, 73 YDS
- RecMicah Davis 3 REC, 134 YDS, 1 TD
- PassLunch Winfield 12/21, 112 YDS, 1 INT
- RushLunch Winfield 19 CAR, 98 YDS, 1 TD
- RecCaden Jensen 5 REC, 45 YDS
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsUSM up 10 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,140 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q1 3:21UL +16%
Lunch Winfield run for 3 yds for a TD (Tony Sterner KICK)
- Q1 1:00USM +15%
Robert Briggs run for 11 yds to the USM 39 for a 1ST down
- Q3 4:31UL +8%
No Huddle-Shotgun Pittman,Jeffery rush right for 4 yards gain to the USM10 (Williams,Terrence; Clark,Jalen) PENALTY USM Holding (Heath,Kyirin) 3 yards from USM06 to US…
- Q4 6:12UL +5%
PENALTY UL False Start (Chaney,Trenton) 5 yards from UL39 to UL34. NO PLAY
- Q3 1:03UL +5%
PENALTY UL False Start 5 yards from UL50 to UL45. NO PLAY
FAQ
What was the final score of Southern Miss vs. Louisiana?
Southern Miss 22, Louisiana 10.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
No — the model picked UL, which didn't hit. We report the misses too.
| USM | UL | |
|---|---|---|
| 371 | Total yards | 356 |
| 238 | Passing yards | 135 |
| 133 | Rushing yards | 221 |
| 14 | First downs | 19 |
| 2-13 | 3rd down | 6-16 |
| 1-1 | 4th down | 1-4 |
| 13/18 | Comp/Att | 14/27 |
| 13.2 | Yards per pass | 5.0 |
| 3.2 | Yards per rush | 4.6 |
| 2 | Turnovers | 3 |
| 6-43 | Penalties | 8-70 |
| 24:29 | Possession | 35:31 |
Costliest call
Q1 11:22 USM punt on 4th & 6 at UL 37. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 0.79 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 3:43USMTeam Safety 22–10
- Q3 3:40USMMicah Davis 98 Yd pass from Braylon Braxton (Creighton Wilbanks Kick)20–10
- Q3 9:35ULTony Sterner 24 Yd Field Goal 13–10
- Q2 0:00USMCreighton Wilbanks 52 Yd Field Goal 13–7
- Q2 1:29USMCreighton Wilbanks 32 Yd Field Goal 10–7
- Q2 7:42USMMatt Jones 1 Yd Run (Creighton Wilbanks Kick)7–7
- Q1 3:21ULLunch Winfield 3 Yd Run (Tony Sterner Kick)0–7
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (UL Elo 1369, USM Elo 1273 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects UL -6.2 (67% to win) — 10.7 points clear of UL's market line of +4.5. That is a disagreement, not a betting edge — sides we favour have not covered at better than breakeven.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2025
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profilesSouthern Miss leads 24–5 · 31% have been one-possession games
| USM | UL | |
|---|---|---|
| -6.7 (#86) | CORE overall | -20.6 (#126) |
| -6 / +1 | offense / defense | -8 / +13 |
| 2.09 | points / drive | 2.09 |
| 2.19 | allowed / drive | 2.56 |
| 25% | three-and-outs | 31% |
| +1 | pass over expected | -9 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →