Sat, Oct 18, 9:00 PM
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USM | 0 | 13 | 7 | 2 | 22 |
| UL | 7 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 10 |
Our model blends Elo ratings (UL Elo 1369, USM Elo 1273) plus home-field advantage. That projects UL -6.2 (68% to win) — 10.7 points of value on UL versus the market line of +4.5.
USM up 10 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,140 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
Southern Miss 22, Louisiana 10.
No — the model picked UL, which didn't hit. We report the misses too.
Why trust the number?Gridpex's model is walk-forward validated on 2014–24, out-of-sample: +0.28 pts mean Closing Line Value and 53.5% beat the close. We report the record and validate every pick against closing line value.
I had UL pregame and it didn't hit. We report the misses — that was one.
Braylon Braxton pass complete to Micah Davis for 98 yds for a TD (Creighton Wilbanks KICK)
Lunch Winfield run for 2 yds to the USM 1 Lunch Winfield fumbled, recovered by USM Jabari Ishmael
Lunch Winfield pass complete to Charles Robertson for 27 yds to the USM 28 for a 1ST down
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