Cajun FieldConference game
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USM | 0 | 13 | 7 | 2 | 22 |
| UL | 7 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 10 |
Gridpex Model Prediction
Power rating (Elo)
UL 1369
USM 1273
Projected spread
UL -6.2
incl. home edge
Model pick
UL
68% to win
Market spread
UL +4.5
sportsbook line
Model edge
UL
10.7 pts of value
Win prob: model / mkt
68%
UL · market 37%
Our model blends Elo ratings (UL Elo 1369, USM Elo 1273) plus home-field advantage. That projects UL -6.2 (68% to win) — 10.7 points of value on UL versus the market line of +4.5.
Win Probability
Hover over the chart to see play details
UL (top)USM (bottom)· colored dots = scoresFinal: UL 0%
Key matchups · Pro
- USM rush offense (0.10 PPA) vs. UL rush defense (0.18 allowed) — edge UL.
- UL pass offense (0.15 PPA) vs. USM pass defense (0.13 allowed) — edge UL.
- UL rush offense (0.13 PPA) vs. USM rush defense (0.14 allowed) — edge USM.
Drive-by-drive
USM 1/8 scoring drives← own end zone →UL 3/8 scoring drives
USMPUNT9 pl, 38 yds· own 25Q1
ULTD16 pl, 85 yds· own 15Q1
USMPUNT3 pl, 5 yds· own 25Q1
Comparable Situations — historical outcomes
USM up 10 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,140 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
88%
USM went on to win
A near-lock historically
FAQ
What was the final score of Southern Miss vs. Louisiana?
Southern Miss 22, Louisiana 10.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
No — the model picked UL, which didn't hit. We report the misses too.
Why trust the number?Gridpex's model is walk-forward validated on 2014–24, out-of-sample: +0.28 pts mean Closing Line Value and 53.5% beat the close. We report the record and validate every pick against closing line value.
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Gridiron IQ Model
Pinned · the model's take
I had UL pregame and it didn't hit. We report the misses — that was one.