Kyle FieldConference gameClosing line: TA&M -16.5 · SC covered
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SC | 17 | 13 | 0 | 0 | 30 |
| TA&M | 3 | 0 | 21 | 7 | 31 |
Team stats
SCthis game · better side highlightedTA&M
388
Total yards
503267
Passing yards
439121
Rushing yards
6415
First downs
234-15 · 27%
Third down
Gridpex Model Prediction
Power rating (Elo)
TA&M 1904
SC 1637
Projected spread
TA&M -13.1
incl. home edge
Model pick
TA&M
83% to win
Market spread
TA&M -16.5
sportsbook line
Model edge
SC
3.4 pts of value
Win prob: model / mkt
83%
TA&M · market 87%
Our model blends Elo ratings (TA&M Elo 1904, SC Elo 1637) plus home-field advantage. That projects TA&M -13.1 (83% to win) — 3.4 points of value on SC versus the market line of -16.5.
Win Probability
Hover over the chart to see play details
TA&M (top)SC (bottom)· colored dots = scoresFinal: TA&M 100%
Key matchups · Pro
- TA&M rush offense (0.16 PPA) vs. SC rush defense (-0.06 allowed) — edge TA&M.
- TA&M pass offense (0.38 PPA) vs. SC pass defense (0.25 allowed) — edge TA&M.
- SC pass offense (0.17 PPA) vs. TA&M pass defense (0.10 allowed) — edge SC.
Drive-by-drive
SC 5/15 scoring drives← own end zone →TA&M 6/15 scoring drives
SCFG10 pl, 57 yds· own 25Q1
TA&MFG7 pl, 52 yds· own 25Q1
SCTD6 pl, 75 yds· own 25Q1
Comparable Situations — historical outcomes
SC up 6 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,662 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
77%
SC went on to win
A solid but not safe lead
FAQ
What was the final score of South Carolina vs. Texas A&M?
South Carolina 30, Texas A&M 31.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
Yes — the model's pick (TA&M) was correct.
Why trust the number?Gridpex's model is walk-forward validated on 2014–24, out-of-sample: +0.28 pts mean Closing Line Value and 53.5% beat the close. We report the record and validate every pick against closing line value.
🤖
Gridiron IQ Model
Pinned · the model's take
Called it — I had TA&M pregame. ✓ We log the misses too, but not this one.