Vaught-Hemingway StadiumConference gameClosing line: MISS -13 · MISS covered
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SC | 7 | 0 | 7 | 0 | 14 |
| MISS | 10 | 7 | 3 | 10 | 30 |
Team stats
SCthis game · better side highlightedMISS
230
Total yards
417180
Passing yards
15950
Rushing yards
25815
First downs
193-13 · 23%
Third down
Gridpex Model Prediction
Power rating (Elo)
MISS 1963
SC 1643
Projected spread
MISS -15.2
incl. home edge
Model pick
MISS
87% to win
Market spread
MISS -13
sportsbook line
Model edge
MISS
2.2 pts of value
Win prob: model / mkt
87%
MISS · market 80%
Our model blends Elo ratings (MISS Elo 1963, SC Elo 1643) plus home-field advantage. That projects MISS -15.2 (87% to win) — 2.2 points of value on MISS versus the market line of -13.
Win Probability
Hover over the chart to see play details
MISS (top)SC (bottom)· colored dots = scoresFinal: MISS 100%
Key matchups · Pro
- MISS pass offense (0.46 PPA) vs. SC pass defense (0.25 allowed) — edge MISS.
- MISS rush offense (0.15 PPA) vs. SC rush defense (-0.06 allowed) — edge MISS.
- SC rush offense (0.09 PPA) vs. MISS rush defense (0.19 allowed) — edge MISS.
Drive-by-drive
SC 2/12 scoring drives← own end zone →MISS 6/13 scoring drives
MISSDOWNS9 pl, 39 yds· own 25Q1
SCPUNT3 pl, 6 yds· own 36Q1
SCTD4 pl, 16 yds· opp 16Q1
Comparable Situations — historical outcomes
MISS up 6 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,662 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
77%
MISS went on to win
A solid but not safe lead
FAQ
What was the final score of South Carolina vs. Ole Miss?
South Carolina 14, Ole Miss 30.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
Yes — the model's pick (MISS) was correct.
Why trust the number?Gridpex's model is walk-forward validated on 2014–24, out-of-sample: +0.28 pts mean Closing Line Value and 53.5% beat the close. We report the record and validate every pick against closing line value.
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Gridiron IQ Model
Pinned · the model's take
Called it — I had MISS pregame. ✓ We log the misses too, but not this one.