South Carolina vs. Ole Miss: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
SCTeam statsMISS
- Q4 5:44MISSKewan Lacy 54 Yd Run (Lucas Carneiro Kick)14–30
- Q4 11:54MISSLucas Carneiro 34 Yd Field Goal 14–23
- Q3 5:46MISSLucas Carneiro 27 Yd Field Goal 14–20
- Q3 11:30SCNyck Harbor 47 Yd pass from LaNorris Sellers (William Joyce Kick)14–17
- Q2 6:56MISSTrinidad Chambliss 15 Yd Run (Lucas Carneiro Kick)7–17
- Q1 1:28MISSDae'Quan Wright 8 Yd pass from Trinidad Chambliss (Lucas Carneiro Kick)7–10
- Q1 3:58MISSLucas Carneiro 21 Yd Field Goal 7–3
- Q1 9:13SCLaNorris Sellers 1 Yd Run (William Joyce Kick)7–0
How the model called it
- PassLaNorris Sellers 16/30, 180 YDS, 1 TD, 2 INT
- RushRahsul Faison 12 CAR, 52 YDS
- RecNyck Harbor 3 REC, 69 YDS, 1 TD
- PassTrinidad Chambliss 12/21, 159 YDS, 1 TD, 1 INT
- RushKewan Lacy 24 CAR, 167 YDS, 1 TD
- RecDeuce Alexander 2 REC, 52 YDS
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsMISS up 6 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,662 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
FAQ
What was the final score of South Carolina vs. Ole Miss?
South Carolina 14, Ole Miss 30.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
Yes — the model's pick (MISS) was correct.
| SC | MISS | |
|---|---|---|
| 230 | Total yards | 417 |
| 180 | Passing yards | 159 |
| 50 | Rushing yards | 258 |
| 15 | First downs | 19 |
| 3-13 | 3rd down | 1-11 |
| 1-3 | 4th down | 3-4 |
| 16/30 | Comp/Att | 12/21 |
| 6.0 | Yards per pass | 7.6 |
| 1.6 | Yards per rush | 5.7 |
| 3 | Turnovers | 2 |
| 4-20 | Penalties | 5-60 |
| 29:14 | Possession | 30:46 |
Costliest call
Q1 13:56 MISS go for it on 4th & 10 at MISS 25. The model preferred punt, a gap of 1.00 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 5:44MISSKewan Lacy 54 Yd Run (Lucas Carneiro Kick)14–30
- Q4 11:54MISSLucas Carneiro 34 Yd Field Goal 14–23
- Q3 5:46MISSLucas Carneiro 27 Yd Field Goal 14–20
- Q3 11:30SCNyck Harbor 47 Yd pass from LaNorris Sellers (William Joyce Kick)14–17
- Q2 6:56MISSTrinidad Chambliss 15 Yd Run (Lucas Carneiro Kick)7–17
- Q1 1:28MISSDae'Quan Wright 8 Yd pass from Trinidad Chambliss (Lucas Carneiro Kick)7–10
- Q1 3:58MISSLucas Carneiro 21 Yd Field Goal 7–3
- Q1 9:13SCLaNorris Sellers 1 Yd Run (William Joyce Kick)7–0
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (MISS Elo 1963, SC Elo 1643 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects MISS -15.2 (84% to win) — 2.2 points clear of MISS's market line of -13. That is a disagreement, not a betting edge — sides we favour have not covered at better than breakeven.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2025
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profilesOle Miss leads 11–8 · Ole Miss has won 3 straight · 68% have been one-possession games
| SC | MISS | |
|---|---|---|
| +5.3 (#53) | CORE overall | +19.4 (#16) |
| -1 / -7 | offense / defense | +16 / -4 |
| 1.48 | points / drive | 3.33 |
| 1.63 | allowed / drive | 2.07 |
| 27% | three-and-outs | 18% |
| -2 | pass over expected | +4 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →