South Carolina vs. LSU: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
SCTeam statsLSU
- Q4 1:47LSUDamian Ramos 22 Yd Field Goal 10–20
- Q3 6:38LSUKyle Parker 43 Yd pass from Garrett Nussmeier (Damian Ramos Kick)10–17
- Q3 8:39SCWilliam Joyce 47 Yd Field Goal 10–10
- Q2 13:01LSUTrey'Dez Green 6 Yd pass from Garrett Nussmeier (Damian Ramos Kick)7–10
- Q1 0:25SCMatt Fuller 72 Yd Run (William Joyce Kick)7–3
- Q1 11:53LSUDamian Ramos 28 Yd Field Goal 0–3
How the model called it
What the numbers say
- SC played behind the sticks — third downs that long convert rarely, and LSU did not face the same ones. 3rd & 10.3 vs 3rd & 5.2
- PassLaNorris Sellers 15/27, 124 YDS, 1 INT
- RushMatt Fuller 7 CAR, 83 YDS, 1 TD
- RecNyck Harbor 2 REC, 36 YDS
- PassGarrett Nussmeier 20/33, 254 YDS, 2 TD, 2 INT
- RushCaden Durham 15 CAR, 70 YDS
- RecTrey'Dez Green 8 REC, 119 YDS, 1 TD
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsLSU up 7 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,299 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q3 6:38LSU +23%
Garrett Nussmeier pass complete to Kyle Parker for 43 yds for a TD (Damian Ramos KICK)
- Q2 13:01LSU +20%
Garrett Nussmeier pass complete to Trey'Dez Green for 6 yds for a TD LSU Penalty, UNS: Unsportsmanlike Conduct (Bauer Sharp) to the SC 0 (Damian Ramos KICK)
- Q1 0:25SC +19%
Matt Fuller run for 72 yds for a TD (William Joyce KICK)
- Q3 8:39SC +12%
William Joyce 47 yd FG GOOD
- Q4 1:47LSU +11%
Damian Ramos 22 yd FG GOOD
- Q4 7:17LSU +10%
Grant Chadwick punt for 45 yds, Vicari Swain returns for 20 yds to the LSU 37
FAQ
What was the final score of South Carolina vs. LSU?
South Carolina 10, LSU 20.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
Yes — the model's pick (LSU) was correct.
| SC | LSU | |
|---|---|---|
| 317 | Total yards | 420 |
| 124 | Passing yards | 254 |
| 193 | Rushing yards | 166 |
| 20 | First downs | 22 |
| 6-16 | 3rd down | 4-11 |
| 0-2 | 4th down | 0-0 |
| 15/27 | Comp/Att | 20/33 |
| 4.6 | Yards per pass | 7.7 |
| 4.3 | Yards per rush | 5.5 |
| 2 | Turnovers | 3 |
| 13-65 | Penalties | 5-54 |
| 31:45 | Possession | 28:15 |
Costliest call
Q4 8:46 SC punt on 4th & 20 at LSU 37. The model preferred field goal, a gap of 0.51 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 1:47LSUDamian Ramos 22 Yd Field Goal 10–20
- Q3 6:38LSUKyle Parker 43 Yd pass from Garrett Nussmeier (Damian Ramos Kick)10–17
- Q3 8:39SCWilliam Joyce 47 Yd Field Goal 10–10
- Q2 13:01LSUTrey'Dez Green 6 Yd pass from Garrett Nussmeier (Damian Ramos Kick)7–10
- Q1 0:25SCMatt Fuller 72 Yd Run (William Joyce Kick)7–3
- Q1 11:53LSUDamian Ramos 28 Yd Field Goal 0–3
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (LSU Elo 1751, SC Elo 1682 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects LSU -5.2 (65% to win) — 3.3 points clear of SC's market line of -8.5. That is a disagreement, not a betting edge — sides we favour have not covered at better than breakeven.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2025
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profilesLSU leads 21–2–1 · LSU has won 9 straight · 42% have been one-possession games
| SC | LSU | |
|---|---|---|
| +5.3 (#53) | CORE overall | +8.1 (#45) |
| -1 / -7 | offense / defense | -3 / -11 |
| 1.48 | points / drive | 1.66 |
| 1.63 | allowed / drive | 1.74 |
| 27% | three-and-outs | 30% |
| -2 | pass over expected | +9 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →