| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SC | 7 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 10 |
| LSU | 3 | 7 | 7 | 3 | 20 |
Our model blends Elo ratings (LSU Elo 1751, SC Elo 1682) plus home-field advantage. That projects LSU -5.2 (65% to win) — 3.3 points of value on SC versus the market line of -8.5.
LSU up 7 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,299 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
South Carolina 10, LSU 20.
Yes — the model's pick (LSU) was correct.
Why trust the number?Gridpex's model is walk-forward validated on 2014–24, out-of-sample: +0.28 pts mean Closing Line Value and 53.5% beat the close. We report the record and validate every pick against closing line value.
Called it — I had LSU pregame. ✓ We log the misses too, but not this one.
Matt Fuller run for 72 yds for a TD (William Joyce KICK)
Ju'Juan Johnson run for 1 yd Ju'Juan Johnson fumbled, recovered by SC Bryan Thomas Jr.
Garrett Nussmeier pass complete to Kyle Parker for 43 yds for a TD (Damian Ramos KICK)
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