Raymond James StadiumClosing line: USF -36 · USF covered
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SOUT | 0 | 7 | 0 | 7 | 14 |
| USF | 7 | 14 | 35 | 7 | 63 |
Team stats
SOUTthis game · better side highlightedUSF
305
Total yards
504235
Passing yards
25270
Rushing yards
25220
First downs
207-18 · 39%
Third down
Gridpex Model Prediction
One or both teams lack a power rating (often an FCS opponent), so the model prediction is low-confidence for this game.
Win Probability
Hover over the chart to see play details
USF (top)SOUT (bottom)· colored dots = scoresFinal: USF 100%
Drive-by-drive
SOUT 4/14 scoring drives← own end zone →USF 7/12 scoring drives
SOUTTD10 pl, 70 yds· own 25Q1
SOUTPUNT7 pl, 8 yds· own 20Q1
USFPUNT3 pl, 0 yds· own 38Q1
Comparable Situations — historical outcomes
USF up 49 entering the 4th quarter. Across 72 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
100%
USF went on to win
A near-lock historically
FAQ
What was the final score of South Carolina State vs. South Florida?
South Carolina State 14, South Florida 63.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
Yes — the model's pick (USF) was correct.
Why trust the number?Gridpex's model is walk-forward validated on 2014–24, out-of-sample: +0.28 pts mean Closing Line Value and 53.5% beat the close. We report the record and validate every pick against closing line value.
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Gridiron IQ Model
Pinned · the model's take
Called it — I had USF pregame. ✓ We log the misses too, but not this one.