South Alabama vs. Texas State: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
USATeam statsTXST
- Q4 3:55USAJeremy Scott 35 Yd pass from Jared Hollins (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)26–49
- Q4 4:07USATrae'von Dunbar 34 Yd Run (Davis Little PAT failed)20–49
- Q4 6:06TXSTJaylen Jenkins 100 Yd Kickoff Return (Tyler Robles Kick)14–49
- Q4 6:20USAK. Phillips run for 1 yd, for a TD (D. Little KICK)14–42
- Q4 12:46TXSTBrad Jackson 6 Yd Run (Tyler Robles Kick)7–42
- Q3 4:48TXSTBeau Sparks 50 Yd pass from Brad Jackson (Tyler Robles Kick)7–35
- Q3 8:03TXSTB. Jackson run for 8 yds, for a TD (T. Robles KICK)7–28
- Q2 1:08TXSTLincoln Pare 32 Yd pass from Brad Jackson (Blake Smith Pass to Titus Lyons for Two-Point Conversion)7–21
- Q2 11:08TXSTTyler Robles 31 Yd Field Goal 7–13
- Q1 1:38USAKentrel Bullock 1 Yd Run (Davis Little Kick)7–10
- Q1 4:40TXSTB. Jackson run for 19 yds, for a TD (T. Robles KICK)0–4
- Q1 10:23TXSTTyler Robles 36 Yd Field Goal 0–3
How the model called it
- PassBishop Davenport 13/21, 96 YDS, 1 INT
- RushKentrel Bullock 15 CAR, 84 YDS, 1 TD
- RecJeremy Scott 2 REC, 52 YDS, 1 TD
- PassBrad Jackson 20/26, 281 YDS, 2 TD
- RushBrad Jackson 13 CAR, 113 YDS, 3 TD
- RecChris Dawn Jr. 8 REC, 154 YDS
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsTXST up 28 entering the 4th quarter. Across 465 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q2 2:18TXST +14%
No Huddle-Shotgun #21 K.Phillips rush middle for 4 yards gain to the USA11 (#88 J.Sanders)
- Q2 11:08TXST +8%
Tyler Robles 31 Yd Field Goal
FAQ
What was the final score of South Alabama vs. Texas State?
South Alabama 26, Texas State 49.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
Yes — the model's pick (TXST) was correct.
| USA | TXST | |
|---|---|---|
| 362 | Total yards | 544 |
| 157 | Passing yards | 281 |
| 205 | Rushing yards | 263 |
| 22 | First downs | 26 |
| 5-13 | 3rd down | 5-10 |
| 0-2 | 4th down | 1-1 |
| 20/32 | Comp/Att | 20/26 |
| 4.9 | Yards per pass | 10.8 |
| 5.4 | Yards per rush | 6.1 |
| 1 | Turnovers | 2 |
| 3-25 | Penalties | 9-78 |
| 29:11 | Possession | 30:49 |
Costliest call
Q2 2:18 TXST punt on 4th & 7 at USA 40. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 0.45 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 3:55USAJeremy Scott 35 Yd pass from Jared Hollins (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)26–49
- Q4 4:07USATrae'von Dunbar 34 Yd Run (Davis Little PAT failed)20–49
- Q4 6:06TXSTJaylen Jenkins 100 Yd Kickoff Return (Tyler Robles Kick)14–49
- Q4 6:20USAK. Phillips run for 1 yd, for a TD (D. Little KICK)14–42
- Q4 12:46TXSTBrad Jackson 6 Yd Run (Tyler Robles Kick)7–42
- Q3 4:48TXSTBeau Sparks 50 Yd pass from Brad Jackson (Tyler Robles Kick)7–35
- Q3 8:03TXSTB. Jackson run for 8 yds, for a TD (T. Robles KICK)7–28
- Q2 1:08TXSTLincoln Pare 32 Yd pass from Brad Jackson (Blake Smith Pass to Titus Lyons for Two-Point Conversion)7–21
- Q2 11:08TXSTTyler Robles 31 Yd Field Goal 7–13
- Q1 1:38USAKentrel Bullock 1 Yd Run (Davis Little Kick)7–10
- Q1 4:40TXSTB. Jackson run for 19 yds, for a TD (T. Robles KICK)0–4
- Q1 10:23TXSTTyler Robles 36 Yd Field Goal 0–3
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (TXST Elo 1533, USA Elo 1375 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects TXST -8.7 (73% to win), essentially in line with the market.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2025
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profilesTexas State leads 7–4 · Texas State has won 3 straight · 55% have been one-possession games
| USA | TXST | |
|---|---|---|
| -14.2 (#104) | CORE overall | +9.4 (#41) |
| -4 / +11 | offense / defense | +12 / +3 |
| 2.35 | points / drive | 3.21 |
| 2.86 | allowed / drive | 2.73 |
| 26% | three-and-outs | 20% |
| -11 | pass over expected | -4 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →