Bobcat Stadium (TX)Conference gameClosing line: TXST -9.5 · TXST covered
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USA | 7 | 0 | 0 | 19 | 26 |
| TXST | 10 | 11 | 14 | 14 | 49 |
Team stats
USAthis game · better side highlightedTXST
364
Total yards
544156
Passing yards
280208
Rushing yards
26422
First downs
265-13 · 38%
Third down
Gridpex Model Prediction
Power rating (Elo)
TXST 1533
USA 1375
Projected spread
TXST -8.7
incl. home edge
Model pick
TXST
74% to win
Market spread
TXST -9.5
sportsbook line
Model edge
None
aligned w/ market
Win prob: model / mkt
74%
TXST · market 74%
Our model blends Elo ratings (TXST Elo 1533, USA Elo 1375) plus home-field advantage. That projects TXST -8.7 (74% to win), essentially in line with the market.
Win Probability
Hover over the chart to see play details
TXST (top)USA (bottom)· colored dots = scoresFinal: TXST 100%
Key matchups · Pro
- TXST rush offense (0.28 PPA) vs. USA rush defense (0.18 allowed) — edge TXST.
- TXST pass offense (0.42 PPA) vs. USA pass defense (0.34 allowed) — edge TXST.
- USA pass offense (0.23 PPA) vs. TXST pass defense (0.30 allowed) — edge TXST.
Drive-by-drive
USA 5/14 scoring drives← own end zone →TXST 7/10 scoring drives
TXSTFG12 pl, 67 yds· own 15Q1
USADOWNS9 pl, 44 yds· own 25Q1
TXSTTD3 pl, 69 yds· own 31Q1
Comparable Situations — historical outcomes
TXST up 28 entering the 4th quarter. Across 465 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
99%
TXST went on to win
A near-lock historically
FAQ
What was the final score of South Alabama vs. Texas State?
South Alabama 26, Texas State 49.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
Yes — the model's pick (TXST) was correct.
Why trust the number?Gridpex's model is walk-forward validated on 2014–24, out-of-sample: +0.28 pts mean Closing Line Value and 53.5% beat the close. We report the record and validate every pick against closing line value.
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Gridiron IQ Model
Pinned · the model's take
Called it — I had TXST pregame. ✓ We log the misses too, but not this one.