Sat, Sep 27, 11:30 PM
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SJSU | 10 | 10 | 0 | 9 | 29 |
| STAN | 7 | 7 | 0 | 16 | 30 |
Our model blends Elo ratings (STAN Elo 1249, SJSU Elo 1429) plus home-field advantage. That projects STAN +4.8 (36% to win) — 7.8 points of value on SJSU versus the market line of -3.
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
Unlock with Pro →SJSU up 6 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,662 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
San José State 29, Stanford 30.
No — the model picked SJSU, which didn't hit. We report the misses too.
Why trust the number?Gridpex's model is walk-forward validated out-of-sample: +0.449 pts mean Closing Line Value and 56.4% beat the close (n=1,596, 2021-2025 opens, walk-forward). We report the record and validate every pick against closing line value.
I had SJSU pregame and it didn't hit. We report the misses — that was one.
Ben Gulbranson pass complete to Caden High for 34 yds to the SJSU 25 for a 1ST down
Micah Ford run for a loss of 3 yards to the SJSU 11
Ben Gulbranson pass complete to Bryce Farrell for 50 yds to the SJSU 18 for a 1ST down
