San José State vs. San Diego State: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
SJSUTeam statsSDSU
- Q4 2:03SDSUChristian Washington 8 Yd Run (Gabriel Plascencia Kick)3–25
- Q2 0:01SDSUJayden Denegal 1 Yd Run (Gabriel Plascencia Kick)3–18
- Q2 10:03SJSUMathias Brown 37 Yd Field Goal 3–11
- Q1 0:08SDSUGabriel Plascencia 35 Yd Field Goal 0–11
- Q1 11:14SDSULucky Sutton 1 Yd Run (DJ Herman Pass to Brady Anderson for Two-Point Conversion)0–8
How the model called it
What the numbers say
- SJSU played behind the sticks — third downs that long convert rarely, and SDSU did not face the same ones. 3rd & 8.5 vs 3rd & 5.1
- PassTama Amisone 15/27, 104 YDS, 1 INT
- RushTama Amisone 13 CAR, 75 YDS
- RecDanny Scudero 12 REC, 79 YDS
- PassJayden Denegal 8/16, 81 YDS
- RushLucky Sutton 20 CAR, 79 YDS, 1 TD
- RecDonovan Brown 2 REC, 63 YDS
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsSDSU up 15 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,206 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q1 11:14SDSU +11%
Shotgun #7 L.Sutton rush middle for 1 yard gain to the SJSU00 TOUCHDOWN #42 B.Anderson pass attempt Successful
- Q2 0:01SDSU +6%
#4 J.Denegal rush middle for 1 yard gain to the SJSU00 TOUCHDOWN
FAQ
What was the final score of San José State vs. San Diego State?
San José State 3, San Diego State 25.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
Yes — the model's pick (SDSU) was correct.
| SJSU | SDSU | |
|---|---|---|
| 268 | Total yards | 248 |
| 135 | Passing yards | 81 |
| 133 | Rushing yards | 167 |
| 19 | First downs | 16 |
| 6-15 | 3rd down | 5-14 |
| 1-4 | 4th down | 1-1 |
| 20/38 | Comp/Att | 8/16 |
| 3.6 | Yards per pass | 5.1 |
| 3.7 | Yards per rush | 3.8 |
| 2 | Turnovers | 0 |
| 4-50 | Penalties | 3-30 |
| 32:38 | Possession | 27:22 |
Costliest call
Q4 10:24 SDSU punt on 4th & 2 at SJSU 45. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 1.19 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 2:03SDSUChristian Washington 8 Yd Run (Gabriel Plascencia Kick)3–25
- Q2 0:01SDSUJayden Denegal 1 Yd Run (Gabriel Plascencia Kick)3–18
- Q2 10:03SJSUMathias Brown 37 Yd Field Goal 3–11
- Q1 0:08SDSUGabriel Plascencia 35 Yd Field Goal 0–11
- Q1 11:14SDSULucky Sutton 1 Yd Run (DJ Herman Pass to Brady Anderson for Two-Point Conversion)0–8
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (SDSU Elo 1507, SJSU Elo 1208 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects SDSU -14.4 (83% to win) — 4.4 points clear of SDSU's market line of -10. That is a disagreement, not a betting edge — sides we favour have not covered at better than breakeven.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2025
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profilesSan Diego State leads 23–11–2 · 22% have been one-possession games
| SJSU | SDSU | |
|---|---|---|
| -4.3 (#78) | CORE overall | +11.6 (#35) |
| -1 / +3 | offense / defense | -2 / -14 |
| 1.65 | points / drive | 1.88 |
| 2.60 | allowed / drive | 1.14 |
| 28% | three-and-outs | 30% |
| +13 | pass over expected | -11 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
Create a free account →You get Pro free for 6 months. No card required.
Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →