San Diego State vs. Washington State: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
SDSUTeam statsWSU
- Q4 2:48WSUJulian Dugger 3 Yd Run (Jack Stevens Kick)13–36
- Q3 0:57SDSUJayden Denegal 1 Yd Run (Two-Point Run Conversion Failed)13–29
- Q3 5:21WSUJack Stevens 42 Yd Field Goal 7–29
- Q3 10:55WSULeon Neal Jr. 18 Yd pass from Jaxon Potter (Jack Stevens Kick)7–26
- Q2 0:26WSUTrey Leckner 3 Yd pass from Jaxon Potter (Jack Stevens Kick)7–19
- Q2 1:06WSUIsaac Terrell Safety7–12
- Q2 14:48WSUJack Stevens 49 Yd Field Goal 7–10
- Q1 5:18WSUTrey Leckner 3 Yd pass from Jaxon Potter (Jack Stevens Kick)7–7
- Q1 10:00SDSUJacob Bostick 35 Yd pass from Jayden Denegal (Gabriel Plascencia Kick)7–0
How the model called it
- PassJayden Denegal 15/30, 133 YDS, 1 TD
- RushLucky Sutton 15 CAR, 88 YDS
- RecJordan Napier 7 REC, 69 YDS
- PassJaxon Potter 28/42, 257 YDS, 3 TD
- RushKirby Vorhees 13 CAR, 67 YDS
- RecJoshua Meredith 8 REC, 88 YDS
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsWSU up 16 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,243 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q2 0:26WSU +11%
Jaxon Potter pass complete to Trey Leckner for 3 yds for a TD (Jack Stevens KICK)
- Q2 1:06WSU +5%
Isaac Terrell Safety
FAQ
What was the final score of San Diego State vs. Washington State?
San Diego State 13, Washington State 36.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
Yes — the model's pick (WSU) was correct.
| SDSU | WSU | |
|---|---|---|
| 215 | Total yards | 396 |
| 133 | Passing yards | 257 |
| 82 | Rushing yards | 139 |
| 10 | First downs | 19 |
| 2-13 | 3rd down | 5-18 |
| 1-4 | 4th down | 2-3 |
| 15/30 | Comp/Att | 28/42 |
| 4.4 | Yards per pass | 6.1 |
| 2.7 | Yards per rush | 3.9 |
| 0 | Turnovers | 0 |
| 6-38 | Penalties | 8-55 |
| 24:54 | Possession | 35:06 |
Costliest call
Q2 4:12 SDSU punt on 4th & 4 at WSU 48. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 0.43 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 2:48WSUJulian Dugger 3 Yd Run (Jack Stevens Kick)13–36
- Q3 0:57SDSUJayden Denegal 1 Yd Run (Two-Point Run Conversion Failed)13–29
- Q3 5:21WSUJack Stevens 42 Yd Field Goal 7–29
- Q3 10:55WSULeon Neal Jr. 18 Yd pass from Jaxon Potter (Jack Stevens Kick)7–26
- Q2 0:26WSUTrey Leckner 3 Yd pass from Jaxon Potter (Jack Stevens Kick)7–19
- Q2 1:06WSUIsaac Terrell Safety7–12
- Q2 14:48WSUJack Stevens 49 Yd Field Goal 7–10
- Q1 5:18WSUTrey Leckner 3 Yd pass from Jaxon Potter (Jack Stevens Kick)7–7
- Q1 10:00SDSUJacob Bostick 35 Yd pass from Jayden Denegal (Gabriel Plascencia Kick)7–0
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (WSU Elo 1520, SDSU Elo 1318 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects WSU -10.5 (76% to win) — 8.5 points clear of WSU's market line of -2. That is a disagreement, not a betting edge — sides we favour have not covered at better than breakeven.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 15 · through week 2 · drive simulation
Season form — 2025
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles| SDSU | WSU | |
|---|---|---|
| +11.6 (#35) | CORE overall | +10.0 (#40) |
| -2 / -14 | offense / defense | +3 / -7 |
| 1.88 | points / drive | 2.11 |
| 1.14 | allowed / drive | 1.86 |
| 30% | three-and-outs | 27% |
| -11 | pass over expected | +4 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →