Gesa FieldClosing line: WSU -2 · WSU covered
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SDSU | 7 | 0 | 6 | 0 | 13 |
| WSU | 7 | 12 | 10 | 7 | 36 |
Team stats
SDSUthis game · better side highlightedWSU
215
Total yards
402133
Passing yards
25782
Rushing yards
14510
First downs
192-13 · 15%
Third down
Gridpex Model Prediction
Power rating (Elo)
WSU 1520
SDSU 1318
Projected spread
WSU -10.5
incl. home edge
Model pick
WSU
78% to win
Market spread
WSU -2
sportsbook line
Model edge
WSU
8.5 pts of value
Win prob: model / mkt
78%
WSU · market 56%
Our model blends Elo ratings (WSU Elo 1520, SDSU Elo 1318) plus home-field advantage. That projects WSU -10.5 (78% to win) — 8.5 points of value on WSU versus the market line of -2.
Win Probability
Hover over the chart to see play details
WSU (top)SDSU (bottom)· colored dots = scoresFinal: WSU 100%
Key matchups · Pro
- WSU pass offense (0.21 PPA) vs. SDSU pass defense (-0.04 allowed) — edge WSU.
- SDSU rush offense (0.17 PPA) vs. WSU rush defense (0.08 allowed) — edge SDSU.
- WSU rush offense (0.09 PPA) vs. SDSU rush defense (0.06 allowed) — edge WSU.
Drive-by-drive
SDSU 3/14 scoring drives← own end zone →WSU 6/14 scoring drives
SDSUPUNT5 pl, 17 yds· own 25Q1
WSUPUNT3 pl, 1 yds· own 19Q1
SDSUTD5 pl, 56 yds· own 44Q1
Comparable Situations — historical outcomes
WSU up 16 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,243 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
96%
WSU went on to win
A near-lock historically
FAQ
What was the final score of San Diego State vs. Washington State?
San Diego State 13, Washington State 36.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
Yes — the model's pick (WSU) was correct.
Why trust the number?Gridpex's model is walk-forward validated on 2014–24, out-of-sample: +0.28 pts mean Closing Line Value and 53.5% beat the close. We report the record and validate every pick against closing line value.
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Gridiron IQ Model
Pinned · the model's take
Called it — I had WSU pregame. ✓ We log the misses too, but not this one.