Sam Houston vs. Texas: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
SHSUTeam statsTEX
- Q4 13:22TEXChristian Clark 5 Yd Run (Mason Shipley Kick)0–55
- Q3 4:54TEXMason Shipley 38 Yd Field Goal 0–48
- Q3 10:46TEXRyan Wingo 13 Yd pass from Arch Manning (Mason Shipley Kick)0–45
- Q3 13:51TEXRyan Wingo 53 Yd pass from Arch Manning (Mason Shipley Kick)0–38
- Q2 1:25TEXArch Manning 2 Yd Run (Mason Shipley Kick)0–31
- Q2 5:50TEXMason Shipley 29 Yd Field Goal 0–24
- Q2 12:50TEXJordan Washington 32 Yd pass from Arch Manning (Mason Shipley Kick)0–21
- Q1 0:45TEXArch Manning 5 Yd Run (Mason Shipley Kick)0–14
- Q1 6:23TEXJerrick Gibson 13 Yd Run (Mason Shipley Kick)0–7
How the model called it
What the numbers say
- SHSU played behind the sticks — third downs that long convert rarely, and TEX did not face the same ones. 3rd & 9.9 vs 3rd & 7.4
- PassHunter Watson 13/25, 86 YDS, 1 INT
- RushHunter Watson 15 CAR, 32 YDS
- RecLandan Brown 6 REC, 37 YDS
- PassArch Manning 18/21, 309 YDS, 3 TD
- RushChristian Clark 13 CAR, 62 YDS, 1 TD
- RecRyan Wingo 4 REC, 93 YDS, 2 TD
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsTEX up 55 entering the 4th quarter. Across 52 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
FAQ
What was the final score of Sam Houston vs. Texas?
Sam Houston 0, Texas 55.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
Yes — the model's pick (TEX) was correct.
| SHSU | TEX | |
|---|---|---|
| 113 | Total yards | 607 |
| 86 | Passing yards | 343 |
| 27 | Rushing yards | 264 |
| 7 | First downs | 26 |
| 2-14 | 3rd down | 7-11 |
| 0-2 | 4th down | 0-0 |
| 13/25 | Comp/Att | 23/28 |
| 3.4 | Yards per pass | 12.3 |
| 1.0 | Yards per rush | 6.4 |
| 1 | Turnovers | 0 |
| 6-40 | Penalties | 9-70 |
| 26:09 | Possession | 33:51 |
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 13:22TEXChristian Clark 5 Yd Run (Mason Shipley Kick)0–55
- Q3 4:54TEXMason Shipley 38 Yd Field Goal 0–48
- Q3 10:46TEXRyan Wingo 13 Yd pass from Arch Manning (Mason Shipley Kick)0–45
- Q3 13:51TEXRyan Wingo 53 Yd pass from Arch Manning (Mason Shipley Kick)0–38
- Q2 1:25TEXArch Manning 2 Yd Run (Mason Shipley Kick)0–31
- Q2 5:50TEXMason Shipley 29 Yd Field Goal 0–24
- Q2 12:50TEXJordan Washington 32 Yd pass from Arch Manning (Mason Shipley Kick)0–21
- Q1 0:45TEXArch Manning 5 Yd Run (Mason Shipley Kick)0–14
- Q1 6:23TEXJerrick Gibson 13 Yd Run (Mason Shipley Kick)0–7
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (TEX Elo 1878, SHSU Elo 1337 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects TEX -24 (93% to win) — 15.5 points clear of SHSU's market line of -39.5. That is a disagreement, not a betting edge — sides we favour have not covered at better than breakeven.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 15 · through week 2 · drive simulation
Season form — 2025
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles| SHSU | TEX | |
|---|---|---|
| -30.3 (#134) | CORE overall | +14.3 (#28) |
| -15 / +15 | offense / defense | +5 / -9 |
| 1.26 | points / drive | 2.55 |
| 2.93 | allowed / drive | 1.74 |
| 34% | three-and-outs | 23% |
| +3 | pass over expected | +4 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →