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Sam Houston vs. Texas: Final Score & Recap
Sun, Sep 21, 12:00 AM
DKR-Texas Memorial Stadium
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SHSU | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| TEX | 14 | 17 | 17 | 7 | 55 |
Gridpex Model Prediction
Power rating (Elo)
TEX 1878
SHSU 1337
Projected spread
TEX -24
incl. home edge
Model pick
TEX
96% to win
Market spread
TEX -39.5
sportsbook line
Model edge
SHSU
15.5 pts of value
Win prob: model / mkt
96%
TEX (no market)
Our model blends Elo ratings (TEX Elo 1878, SHSU Elo 1337) plus home-field advantage. That projects TEX -24 (96% to win) — 15.5 points of value on SHSU versus the market line of -39.5.
Win Probability
Hover over the chart to see play details
TEX (top)SHSU (bottom)· colored dots = scoresFinal: TEX 100%
Advanced Matchup — 2025
SHSU2025 season · higher-impact side highlightedTEX
Offense
0.01
PPA / play
0.1837%
Success rate
40%1.24
Explosiveness
1.372.79
Pts / opportunity
3.5266%
Power success
63%Defense
0.22
PPA allowed / play
0.1048%
Success rate allowed
39%1.24
Explosiveness allowed
1.1814%
Havoc rate
18%17%
Stuff rate
21%Key matchups · Pro
- SHSU pass offense (0.01 PPA) vs. TEX pass defense (0.20 allowed) — edge TEX.
- TEX pass offense (0.29 PPA) vs. SHSU pass defense (0.36 allowed) — edge SHSU.
- TEX rush offense (0.08 PPA) vs. SHSU rush defense (0.15 allowed) — edge SHSU.
Drive-by-drive
SHSU 0/9 scoring drives← own end zone →TEX 6/8 scoring drives
SHSUPUNT3 pl, 6 yds· own 25Q1
TEXTD12 pl, 76 yds· own 24Q1
SHSUPUNT3 pl, -7 yds· own 25Q1
TEXTD9 pl, 60 yds· own 40Q1
SHSUPUNT3 pl, -7 yds· own 35Q1
TEXTD3 pl, 70 yds· own 30Q2
SHSUPUNT3 pl, 4 yds· own 25Q2
TEXFG7 pl, 60 yds· own 29Q2
SHSUPUNT3 pl, 1 yds· own 25Q2
TEXTD7 pl, 70 yds· own 30Q2
SHSUINT8 pl, 33 yds· own 25Q2
TEXTD3 pl, 75 yds· own 25Q3
SHSUPUNT6 pl, 26 yds· own 25Q4
TEXPUNT7 pl, 14 yds· own 10Q4
SHSUPUNT4 pl, -16 yds· own 28Q4
TEXPUNT4 pl, -5 yds· own 47Q4
SHSUEND6 pl, 8 yds· own 20Q4
Comparable Situations — historical outcomes
TEX up 55 entering the 4th quarter. Across 52 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
100%
TEX went on to win
A near-lock historically
FAQ
What was the final score of Sam Houston vs. Texas?
Sam Houston 0, Texas 55.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
Yes — the model's pick (TEX) was correct.
Why trust the number?Gridpex's model is walk-forward validated on 2014–24, out-of-sample: +0.28 pts mean Closing Line Value and 53.5% beat the close. We report the record — wins and losses — never fake locks.
🤖
Gridiron IQ Model
Pinned · the model's take
Called it — I had TEX pregame. ✓ We log the misses too, but not this one.