| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| RICE | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 28 |
| CLT | 3 | 6 | 0 | 8 | 17 |
Our model blends Elo ratings (CLT Elo 1200, RICE Elo 1271) plus home-field advantage. That projects CLT +0.4 (49% to win), essentially in line with the market.
RICE up 12 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,519 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
Rice 28, Charlotte 17.
Yes — the model's pick (RICE) was correct.
Why trust the number?Gridpex's model is walk-forward validated on 2014–24, out-of-sample: +0.28 pts mean Closing Line Value and 53.5% beat the close. We report the record and validate every pick against closing line value.
Called it — I had RICE pregame. ✓ We log the misses too, but not this one.
Grayson Loftis pass complete to Javen Nicholas for 31 yds for a TD (Grayson Loftis pass to Javen Nicholas for Two-Point Conversion)
Conner Harrell run for 19 yds to the RICE 29 for a 1ST down
Grayson Loftis sacked by Ty Morris for a loss of 17 yards to the RICE 43 Grayson Loftis fumbled, forced by Ty Morris, recovered by RICE Tony Anyanwu , return for 0 yards
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