Rice vs. Charlotte: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
RICETeam statsCLT
- Q4 7:27CLTJaven Nicholas 31 Yd pass from Grayson Loftis (Grayson Loftis Pass to Javen Nicholas for Two-Point Conversion)28–17
- Q4 10:31RICEDaelen Alexander 1 Yd Run (Enock Gota Kick)28–9
- Q3 11:33RICEDaelen Alexander 13 Yd Run (Enock Gota Kick)21–9
- Q2 1:18RICEChase Jenkins 34 Yd Run (Enock Gota Kick)14–9
- Q2 2:23CLTLiam Boyd 40 Yd Field Goal 7–9
- Q2 7:55CLTLiam Boyd 25 Yd Field Goal 7–6
- Q1 4:25RICEDrayden Dickmann 9 Yd pass from Chase Jenkins (Enock Gota Kick)7–3
- Q1 8:51CLTLiam Boyd 29 Yd Field Goal 0–3
How the model called it
What the numbers say
- CLT lived on explosives rather than sustaining drives — a profile that vanished once those chunk plays were tackled. 14% explosive on a 36% success rate
- PassChase Jenkins 8/11, 87 YDS, 1 TD
- RushQuinton Jackson 12 CAR, 80 YDS
- RecDrayden Dickmann 4 REC, 39 YDS, 1 TD
- PassGrayson Loftis 15/31, 186 YDS, 1 TD
- RushRod Gainey Jr. 8 CAR, 51 YDS
- RecJaven Nicholas 5 REC, 93 YDS, 1 TD
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsRICE up 12 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,519 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q2 1:18RICE +23%
Chase Jenkins run for 34 yds for a TD (Enock Gota KICK)
- Q1 4:25RICE +19%
Chase Jenkins pass complete to Drayden Dickmann for 9 yds for a TD (Enock Gota KICK)
- Q3 11:33RICE +17%
Daelen Alexander run for 13 yds for a TD (Enock Gota KICK)
- Q2 2:23CLT +10%
Liam Boyd 40 yd FG GOOD
- Q4 10:06RICE +9%
Cameren Smith run for 9 yds to the CLT 34
- Q2 7:55CLT +9%
Liam Boyd 25 yd FG GOOD
FAQ
What was the final score of Rice vs. Charlotte?
Rice 28, Charlotte 17.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
No — the model picked CLT, which didn't hit. We report the misses too.
| RICE | CLT | |
|---|---|---|
| 353 | Total yards | 334 |
| 98 | Passing yards | 259 |
| 255 | Rushing yards | 75 |
| 17 | First downs | 22 |
| 5-12 | 3rd down | 8-18 |
| 0-0 | 4th down | 1-1 |
| 9/12 | Comp/Att | 23/44 |
| 8.2 | Yards per pass | 5.9 |
| 5.5 | Yards per rush | 2.3 |
| 0 | Turnovers | 1 |
| 7-82 | Penalties | 5-43 |
| 30:12 | Possession | 29:48 |
Costliest call
Q2 12:53 RICE punt on 4th & 1 at RICE 17. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 0.85 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 7:27CLTJaven Nicholas 31 Yd pass from Grayson Loftis (Grayson Loftis Pass to Javen Nicholas for Two-Point Conversion)28–17
- Q4 10:31RICEDaelen Alexander 1 Yd Run (Enock Gota Kick)28–9
- Q3 11:33RICEDaelen Alexander 13 Yd Run (Enock Gota Kick)21–9
- Q2 1:18RICEChase Jenkins 34 Yd Run (Enock Gota Kick)14–9
- Q2 2:23CLTLiam Boyd 40 Yd Field Goal 7–9
- Q2 7:55CLTLiam Boyd 25 Yd Field Goal 7–6
- Q1 4:25RICEDrayden Dickmann 9 Yd pass from Chase Jenkins (Enock Gota Kick)7–3
- Q1 8:51CLTLiam Boyd 29 Yd Field Goal 0–3
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (CLT Elo 1200, RICE Elo 1271 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects CLT +0.4 (50% to win), essentially in line with the market.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 15 · through week 2 · drive simulation
Season form — 2025
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles| RICE | CLT | |
|---|---|---|
| -26.8 (#132) | CORE overall | -33.1 (#135) |
| -20 / +7 | offense / defense | -23 / +10 |
| 1.40 | points / drive | 0.88 |
| 3.09 | allowed / drive | 2.98 |
| 38% | three-and-outs | 40% |
| -24 | pass over expected | +1 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →