Pittsburgh vs. Stanford: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
PITTTeam statsSTAN
- Q4 0:18STANCJ Williams 19 Yd pass from Elijah Brown (AJ Seidler Kick)35–20
- Q3 5:46PITTShawn Lee Jr. 30 Yd Interception Return (Trey Butkowski Kick)35–13
- Q3 5:54PITTJake Overman 14 Yd pass from Mason Heintschel (Trey Butkowski Kick)28–13
- Q2 0:00STANEmmet Kenney 45 Yd Field Goal 21–13
- Q2 1:47PITTRaphael Williams Jr. 5 Yd pass from Mason Heintschel (Trey Butkowski Kick)21–10
- Q2 14:56PITTDeuce Spann 4 Yd Run (Trey Butkowski Kick)14–10
- Q1 6:20STANCJ Williams 35 Yd pass from Ben Gulbranson (Emmet Kenney Kick)7–10
- Q1 9:35STANEmmet Kenney 39 Yd Field Goal 7–3
- Q1 11:16PITTKenny Johnson 17 Yd pass from Mason Heintschel (Trey Butkowski Kick)7–0
How the model called it
- PassMason Heintschel 23/38, 304 YDS, 3 TD, 2 INT
- RushJa'Kyrian Turner 22 CAR, 127 YDS
- RecKenny Johnson 4 REC, 71 YDS, 1 TD
- PassBen Gulbranson 17/30, 228 YDS, 1 TD, 3 INT
- RushSedrick Irvin 8 CAR, 24 YDS
- RecCJ Williams 7 REC, 122 YDS, 2 TD
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsPITT up 22 entering the 4th quarter. Across 824 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q2 14:56PITT +14%
Shotgun #7 D.Spann rush right for 4 yards gain to the STAN00 TOUCHDOWN, 1ST DOWN
- Q1 6:20STAN +13%
B. Gulbranson pass to CJ Williams for 35 yds, for a TD (E. Kenney KICK)
- Q1 11:16PITT +9%
No Huddle-Shotgun #6 M.Heintschel pass complete short middle to #2 K.Johnson caught at STAN02, for 17 yards to the STAN00 TOUCHDOWN, 1ST DOWN
- Q2 9:39PITT +7%
PENALTY PITT False Start 5 yards from PITT27 to PITT22. NO PLAY
- Q3 5:54PITT +6%
Jake Overman 14 Yd pass from Mason Heintschel (Trey Butkowski Kick)
FAQ
What was the final score of Pittsburgh vs. Stanford?
Pittsburgh 35, Stanford 20.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
Yes — the model's pick (PITT) was correct.
| PITT | STAN | |
|---|---|---|
| 466 | Total yards | 326 |
| 304 | Passing yards | 336 |
| 162 | Rushing yards | -10 |
| 25 | First downs | 18 |
| 5-13 | 3rd down | 6-15 |
| 2-2 | 4th down | 0-3 |
| 23/38 | Comp/Att | 27/44 |
| 8.0 | Yards per pass | 7.6 |
| 4.6 | Yards per rush | -0.4 |
| 4 | Turnovers | 3 |
| 10-93 | Penalties | 6-84 |
| 30:30 | Possession | 29:30 |
Costliest call
Q1 4:48 PITT punt on 4th & 3 at PITT 48. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 0.58 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 0:18STANCJ Williams 19 Yd pass from Elijah Brown (AJ Seidler Kick)35–20
- Q3 5:46PITTShawn Lee Jr. 30 Yd Interception Return (Trey Butkowski Kick)35–13
- Q3 5:54PITTJake Overman 14 Yd pass from Mason Heintschel (Trey Butkowski Kick)28–13
- Q2 0:00STANEmmet Kenney 45 Yd Field Goal 21–13
- Q2 1:47PITTRaphael Williams Jr. 5 Yd pass from Mason Heintschel (Trey Butkowski Kick)21–10
- Q2 14:56PITTDeuce Spann 4 Yd Run (Trey Butkowski Kick)14–10
- Q1 6:20STANCJ Williams 35 Yd pass from Ben Gulbranson (Emmet Kenney Kick)7–10
- Q1 9:35STANEmmet Kenney 39 Yd Field Goal 7–3
- Q1 11:16PITTKenny Johnson 17 Yd pass from Mason Heintschel (Trey Butkowski Kick)7–0
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (STAN Elo 1240, PITT Elo 1673 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects STAN +14.9 (17% to win), essentially in line with the market.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2025
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles| PITT | STAN | |
|---|---|---|
| +16.8 (#23) | CORE overall | -12.6 (#102) |
| +4 / -13 | offense / defense | -11 / +1 |
| 2.32 | points / drive | 1.42 |
| 1.96 | allowed / drive | 2.33 |
| 23% | three-and-outs | 37% |
| +9 | pass over expected | +1 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →