| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PITT | 7 | 14 | 14 | 0 | 35 |
| STAN | 10 | 3 | 0 | 7 | 20 |
Our model blends Elo ratings (STAN Elo 1240, PITT Elo 1673) plus home-field advantage. That projects STAN +14.9 (13% to win), essentially in line with the market.
PITT up 22 entering the 4th quarter. Across 824 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
Pittsburgh 35, Stanford 20.
Yes — the model's pick (PITT) was correct.
Why trust the number?Gridpex's model is walk-forward validated on 2014–24, out-of-sample: +0.28 pts mean Closing Line Value and 53.5% beat the close. We report the record and validate every pick against closing line value.
Called it — I had PITT pregame. ✓ We log the misses too, but not this one.
Shawn Lee Jr. 30 Yd Interception Return (Trey Butkowski Kick)
End of 1st quarter.
Shotgun #6 M.Heintschel pass intercepted by #9 B.Nicholson at STAN00 QB hurried by #23 H.Barth, Touchback
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