Sat, Nov 15, 8:30 PM
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PSU | 7 | 7 | 0 | 14 | 28 |
| MSU | 7 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 10 |
Our model blends Elo ratings (MSU Elo 1365, PSU Elo 1950) plus home-field advantage. That projects MSU +21 (6% to win) — 14.0 points of value on PSU versus the market line of +7.
PSU up 4 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,449 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
Penn State 28, Michigan State 10.
Yes — the model's pick (PSU) was correct.
Why trust the number?Gridpex's model is walk-forward validated on 2014–24, out-of-sample: +0.28 pts mean Closing Line Value and 53.5% beat the close. We report the record and validate every pick against closing line value.
Called it — I had PSU pregame. ✓ We log the misses too, but not this one.
Shotgun #17 E.Grunkemeyer pass complete short middle to #5 D.Ross caught at PSU31, for 75 yards to the MSU00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 08:30, 1ST DOWN #94 R.Barker kick attempt good (H: #14 R.Thompson, LS: #48 T.Duzansky)
Shotgun #4 E.Tau-Tolliver rush right for 57 yards gain to the PSU00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 12:46, 1ST DOWN #29 M.Connington kick attempt good (H: #96 R.Eckley, LS: #87 J.Wills)
Shotgun #11 A.Milivojevic pass incomplete deep left to #13 C.McCray thrown to PSU07, 1ST DOWN, PENALTY PSU Roughing The Passer (#33 D.Dennis-Sutton) 15 yards from PSU35 to PSU20, 1ST DOWN
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