Penn State vs. Michigan State: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
PSUTeam statsMSU
- Q4 2:07PSUKaytron Allen 26 Yd Run (Ryan Barker Kick)28–10
- Q4 4:32PSUDevonte Ross 4 Yd pass from Ethan Grunkemeyer (Ryan Barker Kick)21–10
- Q2 8:30PSUDevonte Ross 75 Yd pass from Ethan Grunkemeyer (Ryan Barker Kick)14–10
- Q2 8:40MSUMartin Connington 24 Yd Field Goal 7–10
- Q1 5:50PSUKaytron Allen 8 Yd Run (Ryan Barker Kick)7–7
- Q1 12:46MSUElijah Tau-Tolliver 57 Yd Run (Martin Connington Kick)0–7
How the model called it
What the numbers say
- MSU played behind the sticks — third downs that long convert rarely, and PSU did not face the same ones. 3rd & 8.0 vs 3rd & 4.3
- PassEthan Grunkemeyer 8/13, 127 YDS, 2 TD
- RushKaytron Allen 25 CAR, 181 YDS, 2 TD
- RecDevonte Ross 2 REC, 79 YDS, 2 TD
- PassAlessio Milivojevic 17/27, 128 YDS
- RushElijah Tau-Tolliver 6 CAR, 79 YDS, 1 TD
- RecElijah Tau-Tolliver 8 REC, 73 YDS
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsPSU up 4 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,449 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q4 4:32PSU +9%
Shotgun #17 E.Grunkemeyer pass complete short middle to #5 D.Ross caught at MSU07, for 4 yards to the MSU00 TOUCHDOWN
FAQ
What was the final score of Penn State vs. Michigan State?
Penn State 28, Michigan State 10.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
Yes — the model's pick (PSU) was correct.
| PSU | MSU | |
|---|---|---|
| 367 | Total yards | 229 |
| 127 | Passing yards | 128 |
| 240 | Rushing yards | 101 |
| 19 | First downs | 13 |
| 2-10 | 3rd down | 1-10 |
| 2-4 | 4th down | 0-2 |
| 8/13 | Comp/Att | 17/27 |
| 9.8 | Yards per pass | 4.7 |
| 4.8 | Yards per rush | 4.6 |
| 0 | Turnovers | 1 |
| 4-45 | Penalties | 2-20 |
| 37:19 | Possession | 22:41 |
Costliest call
Q3 4:02 PSU punt on 4th & 3 at MSU 45. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 0.92 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 2:07PSUKaytron Allen 26 Yd Run (Ryan Barker Kick)28–10
- Q4 4:32PSUDevonte Ross 4 Yd pass from Ethan Grunkemeyer (Ryan Barker Kick)21–10
- Q2 8:30PSUDevonte Ross 75 Yd pass from Ethan Grunkemeyer (Ryan Barker Kick)14–10
- Q2 8:40MSUMartin Connington 24 Yd Field Goal 7–10
- Q1 5:50PSUKaytron Allen 8 Yd Run (Ryan Barker Kick)7–7
- Q1 12:46MSUElijah Tau-Tolliver 57 Yd Run (Martin Connington Kick)0–7
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (MSU Elo 1365, PSU Elo 1950 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects MSU +21 (10% to win) — 14.0 points clear of PSU's market line of +7. That is a disagreement, not a betting edge — sides we favour have not covered at better than breakeven.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2025
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profilesPenn State leads 20–18–1 · Penn State has won 3 straight · 38% have been one-possession games
| PSU | MSU | |
|---|---|---|
| +13.0 (#32) | CORE overall | -8.6 (#91) |
| +8 / -5 | offense / defense | -4 / +4 |
| 2.96 | points / drive | 1.95 |
| 2.25 | allowed / drive | 2.64 |
| 23% | three-and-outs | 26% |
| -3 | pass over expected | +2 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →