Spartan StadiumConference gameClosing line: PSU +-7 · PSU covered
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PSU | 7 | 7 | 0 | 14 | 28 |
| MSU | 7 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 10 |
Team stats
PSUthis game · better side highlightedMSU
367
Total yards
229127
Passing yards
128240
Rushing yards
10119
First downs
132-10 · 20%
Third down
Gridpex Model Prediction
Power rating (Elo)
MSU 1365
PSU 1950
Projected spread
MSU +21
incl. home edge
Model pick
PSU
94% to win
Market spread
MSU +7
sportsbook line
Model edge
PSU
14.0 pts of value
Win prob: model / mkt
6%
MSU · market 31%
Our model blends Elo ratings (MSU Elo 1365, PSU Elo 1950) plus home-field advantage. That projects MSU +21 (6% to win) — 14.0 points of value on PSU versus the market line of +7.
Win Probability
Hover over the chart to see play details
MSU (top)PSU (bottom)· colored dots = scoresFinal: MSU 0%
Key matchups · Pro
- MSU pass offense (0.24 PPA) vs. PSU pass defense (0.18 allowed) — edge MSU.
- MSU rush offense (0.06 PPA) vs. PSU rush defense (0.11 allowed) — edge PSU.
- PSU rush offense (0.21 PPA) vs. MSU rush defense (0.16 allowed) — edge PSU.
Drive-by-drive
PSU 4/12 scoring drives← own end zone →MSU 2/11 scoring drives
PSUPUNT3 pl, -4 yds· own 25Q1
MSUTD1 pl, 57 yds· own 43Q1
PSUTD12 pl, 75 yds· own 25Q1
Comparable Situations — historical outcomes
PSU up 4 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,449 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
65%
PSU went on to win
A genuinely vulnerable lead — comebacks are common
FAQ
What was the final score of Penn State vs. Michigan State?
Penn State 28, Michigan State 10.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
Yes — the model's pick (PSU) was correct.
Why trust the number?Gridpex's model is walk-forward validated on 2014–24, out-of-sample: +0.28 pts mean Closing Line Value and 53.5% beat the close. We report the record and validate every pick against closing line value.
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Gridiron IQ Model
Pinned · the model's take
Called it — I had PSU pregame. ✓ We log the misses too, but not this one.