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Old Dominion vs. UL Monroe: Final Score & Recap
Sat, Nov 1, 7:30 PM
Malone StadiumConference game
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ODU | 17 | 7 | 0 | 7 | 31 |
| ULM | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 6 |
Gridpex Model Prediction
Power rating (Elo)
ULM 1015
ODU 1463
Projected spread
ULM +15.5
incl. home edge
Model pick
ODU
87% to win
Market spread
ULM +16.5
sportsbook line
Model edge
None
aligned w/ market
Win prob: model / mkt
13%
ULM · market 14%
Our model blends Elo ratings (ULM Elo 1015, ODU Elo 1463) plus home-field advantage. That projects ULM +15.5 (13% to win), essentially in line with the market.
Win Probability
Hover over the chart to see play details
ULM (top)ODU (bottom)· colored dots = scoresFinal: ULM 0%
Advanced Matchup — 2025
ODU2025 season · higher-impact side highlightedULM
Offense
0.25
PPA / play
0.0946%
Success rate
36%1.30
Explosiveness
1.413.94
Pts / opportunity
3.1964%
Power success
78%Defense
0.03
PPA allowed / play
0.1939%
Success rate allowed
41%1.06
Explosiveness allowed
1.3619%
Havoc rate
14%21%
Stuff rate
18%Key matchups · Pro
- ULM pass offense (0.21 PPA) vs. ODU pass defense (0.09 allowed) — edge ULM.
- ODU pass offense (0.41 PPA) vs. ULM pass defense (0.31 allowed) — edge ODU.
- ODU rush offense (0.14 PPA) vs. ULM rush defense (0.08 allowed) — edge ODU.
Drive-by-drive
ODU 5/13 scoring drives← own end zone →ULM 1/14 scoring drives
ODUMISS8 pl, 58 yds· own 29Q1
ULMDOWNS4 pl, 9 yds· own 20Q1
ODUTD3 pl, 29 yds· opp 29Q1
ULMDOWNS8 pl, 40 yds· own 25Q1
ODUTD4 pl, 65 yds· own 35Q1
ULMINT1 pl, 0 yds· own 25Q1
ODUFG6 pl, 21 yds· opp 33Q1
ULMDOWNS9 pl, 44 yds· own 25Q1
ODUTD6 pl, 69 yds· own 31Q2
ULMDOWNS6 pl, 50 yds· own 1Q2
ODUPUNT3 pl, 4 yds· opp 48Q2
ULMPUNT3 pl, -4 yds· own 18Q2
ODUDOWNS7 pl, 23 yds· own 41Q2
ULMEND3 pl, -2 yds· own 36Q2
ULMPUNT3 pl, 5 yds· own 25Q3
ODUFUM3 pl, -5 yds· own 37Q3
ULMFUM3 pl, 25 yds· opp 32Q3
ODUPUNT10 pl, 47 yds· own 7Q3
ULMPUNT6 pl, 22 yds· own 1Q3
ODUDOWNS8 pl, 41 yds· opp 44Q3
ULMPUNT3 pl, 1 yds· own 3Q3
ODUTD4 pl, 38 yds· opp 38Q4
ULMDOWNS11 pl, 55 yds· own 25Q4
ODUPUNT4 pl, -2 yds· own 20Q4
ULMTD2 pl, 2 yds· opp 2Q4
ODUPUNT3 pl, -7 yds· opp 46Q4
ULMUncateg8 pl, 30 yds· own 1Q4
Comparable Situations — historical outcomes
ODU up 24 entering the 4th quarter. Across 555 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
100%
ODU went on to win
A near-lock historically
FAQ
What was the final score of Old Dominion vs. UL Monroe?
Old Dominion 31, UL Monroe 6.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
Yes — the model's pick (ODU) was correct.
Why trust the number?Gridpex's model is walk-forward validated on 2014–24, out-of-sample: +0.28 pts mean Closing Line Value and 53.5% beat the close. We report the record — wins and losses — never fake locks.
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Gridiron IQ Model
Pinned · the model's take
Called it — I had ODU pregame. ✓ We log the misses too, but not this one.