| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OKST | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 |
| ORE | 20 | 21 | 28 | 0 | 69 |
Our model blends Elo ratings (ORE Elo 1860, OKST Elo 1334) plus home-field advantage. That projects ORE -23.4 (96% to win) — 5.1 points of value on OKST versus the market line of -28.5.
ORE up 66 entering the 4th quarter. Across 60 historically comparable game states (within ±5 pts and ±8 min, from 3,056 games):
Oklahoma State 3, Oregon 69.
Yes — the model's pick (ORE) was correct.
Why trust the number?Gridpex's model is walk-forward validated on 2014–24, out-of-sample: +0.28 pts mean Closing Line Value and 53.5% beat the close. We report the record and validate every pick against closing line value.
Called it — I had ORE pregame. ✓ We log the misses too, but not this one.
Zane Flores pass intercepted Jerry Mixon return for 26 yds for a TD (Gage Hurych KICK)
Zane Flores pass intercepted Peyton Woodyard return for 30 yds for a TD Oklahoma State Penalty, Ineligible Downfield on Pass (Yards) declined (Gage Hurych KICK)
Dante Moore pass complete to Dakorien Moore for 65 yds for a TD (Two-Point Conversion failed)
Team boards, recruiting & CFB talk — start a thread.
Open the boards →
