Oklahoma State vs. Oregon: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
OKSTTeam statsORE
- Q3 0:27OREPeyton Woodyard 30 Yd Interception Return (Gage Hurych Kick)3–69
- Q3 1:09OREJerry Mixon 26 Yd Interception Return (Gage Hurych Kick)3–62
- Q3 1:17OREJordon Davison 1 Yd Run (Gage Hurych Kick)3–55
- Q3 9:20OREGary Bryant Jr. 11 Yd pass from Dante Moore (Gage Hurych Kick)3–48
- Q2 0:11OREJayden Limar 5 Yd Run (Atticus Sappington Kick)3–41
- Q2 5:46OREDakorien Moore 25 Yd Run (Atticus Sappington Kick)3–34
- Q2 9:39OREMalik Benson 42 Yd pass from Dante Moore (Atticus Sappington Kick)3–27
- Q2 12:08OKSTLogan Ward 23 Yd Field Goal 3–20
- Q1 5:04OREDierre Hill Jr. 19 Yd Run (Atticus Sappington Kick)0–20
- Q1 13:24OREDakorien Moore 65 Yd pass from Dante Moore (Two-Point Run Conversion Failed)0–13
- Q1 14:20ORENoah Whittington 59 Yd Run (Atticus Sappington Kick)0–7
How the model called it
- PassZane Flores 7/19, 67 YDS, 2 INT
- RushKalib Hicks 14 CAR, 63 YDS
- RecChristian Fitzpatrick 2 REC, 34 YDS
- PassDante Moore 16/21, 266 YDS, 3 TD
- RushNoah Whittington 4 CAR, 91 YDS, 1 TD
- RecJeremiah McClellan 2 REC, 76 YDS
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsORE up 66 entering the 4th quarter. Across 60 historically comparable game states (within ±5 pts and ±8 min, from 3,056 games):
FAQ
What was the final score of Oklahoma State vs. Oregon?
Oklahoma State 3, Oregon 69.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
Yes — the model's pick (ORE) was correct.
| OKST | ORE | |
|---|---|---|
| 211 | Total yards | 631 |
| 67 | Passing yards | 319 |
| 144 | Rushing yards | 312 |
| 9 | First downs | 24 |
| 4-16 | 3rd down | 7-12 |
| 1-1 | 4th down | 1-2 |
| 7/19 | Comp/Att | 18/25 |
| 3.5 | Yards per pass | 12.8 |
| 3.4 | Yards per rush | 8.4 |
| 2 | Turnovers | 0 |
| 8-45 | Penalties | 6-35 |
| 31:19 | Possession | 28:41 |
Costliest call
Q4 9:57 ORE punt on 4th & 5 at OKST 41. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 0.71 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q3 0:27OREPeyton Woodyard 30 Yd Interception Return (Gage Hurych Kick)3–69
- Q3 1:09OREJerry Mixon 26 Yd Interception Return (Gage Hurych Kick)3–62
- Q3 1:17OREJordon Davison 1 Yd Run (Gage Hurych Kick)3–55
- Q3 9:20OREGary Bryant Jr. 11 Yd pass from Dante Moore (Gage Hurych Kick)3–48
- Q2 0:11OREJayden Limar 5 Yd Run (Atticus Sappington Kick)3–41
- Q2 5:46OREDakorien Moore 25 Yd Run (Atticus Sappington Kick)3–34
- Q2 9:39OREMalik Benson 42 Yd pass from Dante Moore (Atticus Sappington Kick)3–27
- Q2 12:08OKSTLogan Ward 23 Yd Field Goal 3–20
- Q1 5:04OREDierre Hill Jr. 19 Yd Run (Atticus Sappington Kick)0–20
- Q1 13:24OREDakorien Moore 65 Yd pass from Dante Moore (Two-Point Run Conversion Failed)0–13
- Q1 14:20ORENoah Whittington 59 Yd Run (Atticus Sappington Kick)0–7
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (ORE Elo 1860, OKST Elo 1334 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects ORE -23.4 (93% to win) — 5.1 points clear of OKST's market line of -28.5. That is a disagreement, not a betting edge — sides we favour have not covered at better than breakeven.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 15 · through week 2 · drive simulation
Season form — 2025
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles| OKST | ORE | |
|---|---|---|
| -22.9 (#130) | CORE overall | +34.6 (#4) |
| -12 / +11 | offense / defense | +19 / -16 |
| 1.02 | points / drive | 3.09 |
| 2.92 | allowed / drive | 1.44 |
| 38% | three-and-outs | 15% |
| -1 | pass over expected | +2 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →