Rynearson StadiumConference gameClosing line: OHIO +-12.5 · EMU covered
Sat, Oct 25, 4:00 PM
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OHIO | 7 | 0 | 7 | 14 | 28 |
| EMU | 14 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 21 |
Our model blends Elo ratings (EMU Elo 1204, OHIO Elo 1612) plus home-field advantage. That projects EMU +13.9 (15% to win), essentially in line with the market.
Tied entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,332 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
Ohio 28, Eastern Michigan 21.
Yes — the model's pick (OHIO) was correct.
Why trust the number?Gridpex's model is walk-forward validated on 2014–24, out-of-sample: +0.28 pts mean Closing Line Value and 53.5% beat the close. We report the record and validate every pick against closing line value.
Called it — I had OHIO pregame. ✓ We log the misses too, but not this one.
(01:05) No Huddle-Shotgun #13 P.Navarro pass intercepted by #22 T.Deener at EMU03, End Of Play
End of 1st quarter.
End of 3rd quarter.
Team boards, recruiting & CFB talk — start a thread.
Open the boards →