Ohio vs. Eastern Michigan: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
OHIOTeam statsEMU
- Q4 1:39EMUNick Devereaux 17 Yd pass from Noah Kim (Rudy Kessinger Kick)28–21
- Q4 2:15OHIOS. Bangura run for 2 yds, for a TD (B. Peacock KICK)28–14
- Q4 13:36OHIOChase Hendricks 14 Yd pass from Parker Navarro (Brack Peacock Kick)21–14
- Q3 4:01OHIOS. Bangura run for 1 yd, for a TD (B. Peacock KICK)14–14
- Q1 5:01EMUNoah Kim 3 Yd Run (Rudy Kessinger Kick)7–14
- Q1 8:08OHIOChase Hendricks 28 Yd pass from Parker Navarro (Brack Peacock Kick)7–7
- Q1 11:07EMUNick Devereaux 38 Yd pass from Noah Kim (Rudy Kessinger Kick)0–7
How the model called it
What the numbers say
- OHIO played behind the sticks — third downs that long convert rarely, and EMU did not face the same ones. 3rd & 8.9 vs 3rd & 5.0
- PassParker Navarro 23/28, 315 YDS, 2 TD, 2 INT
- RushSieh Bangura 19 CAR, 100 YDS, 2 TD
- RecChase Hendricks 10 REC, 112 YDS, 2 TD
- PassNoah Kim 21/30, 259 YDS, 2 TD
- RushDontae McMillan 10 CAR, 49 YDS
- RecNick Devereaux 5 REC, 121 YDS, 2 TD
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsTied entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,332 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q3 4:01OHIO +31%
No Huddle-Shotgun #5 S.Bangura rush middle for 1 yard gain to the EMU00 TOUCHDOWN
- Q4 13:36OHIO +31%
No Huddle-Shotgun #13 P.Navarro pass complete short left to #7 C.Hendricks caught at EMU00, for 14 yards to the EMU00 TOUCHDOWN, 1ST DOWN
- Q1 5:01EMU +18%
Shotgun #1 N.Kim rush right for 3 yards gain to the OHIO00 TOUCHDOWN, 1ST DOWN
- Q1 11:07EMU +16%
No Huddle-Shotgun #1 N.Kim pass complete deep right to #81 N.Devereaux caught at OHIO00, for 38 yards to the OHIO00 TOUCHDOWN, 1ST DOWN
- Q1 8:08OHIO +15%
No Huddle-Shotgun #13 P.Navarro pass complete short middle to #7 C.Hendricks caught at EMU09, for 28 yards to the EMU00 TOUCHDOWN, 1ST DOWN
- Q3 1:13EMU +11%
#46 R.Kessinger field goal attempt from 48 yards NO GOOD
FAQ
What was the final score of Ohio vs. Eastern Michigan?
Ohio 28, Eastern Michigan 21.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
Yes — the model's pick (OHIO) was correct.
| OHIO | EMU | |
|---|---|---|
| 487 | Total yards | 371 |
| 315 | Passing yards | 259 |
| 172 | Rushing yards | 112 |
| 25 | First downs | 17 |
| 6-15 | 3rd down | 5-12 |
| 2-3 | 4th down | 0-0 |
| 23/29 | Comp/Att | 21/30 |
| 10.9 | Yards per pass | 8.6 |
| 3.8 | Yards per rush | 4.5 |
| 2 | Turnovers | 1 |
| 9-52 | Penalties | 6-49 |
| 35:40 | Possession | 24:20 |
Costliest call
Q3 12:21 OHIO punt on 4th & 14 at EMU 34. The model preferred field goal, a gap of 1.00 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 1:39EMUNick Devereaux 17 Yd pass from Noah Kim (Rudy Kessinger Kick)28–21
- Q4 2:15OHIOS. Bangura run for 2 yds, for a TD (B. Peacock KICK)28–14
- Q4 13:36OHIOChase Hendricks 14 Yd pass from Parker Navarro (Brack Peacock Kick)21–14
- Q3 4:01OHIOS. Bangura run for 1 yd, for a TD (B. Peacock KICK)14–14
- Q1 5:01EMUNoah Kim 3 Yd Run (Rudy Kessinger Kick)7–14
- Q1 8:08OHIOChase Hendricks 28 Yd pass from Parker Navarro (Brack Peacock Kick)7–7
- Q1 11:07EMUNick Devereaux 38 Yd pass from Noah Kim (Rudy Kessinger Kick)0–7
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (EMU Elo 1204, OHIO Elo 1612 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects EMU +13.9 (19% to win), essentially in line with the market.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2025
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profilesOhio leads 22–12–1 · Ohio has won 4 straight · 54% have been one-possession games
| OHIO | EMU | |
|---|---|---|
| -1.1 (#66) | CORE overall | -16.0 (#114) |
| +1 / +2 | offense / defense | -3 / +13 |
| 2.50 | points / drive | 2.13 |
| 1.96 | allowed / drive | 2.86 |
| 19% | three-and-outs | 27% |
| -6 | pass over expected | +4 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →