Northern Illinois vs. Maryland: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
NIUTeam statsMD
- Q4 9:20MDShaleak Knotts 42 Yd pass from Malik Washington (Sean O'Haire Kick)9–20
- Q3 6:22NIUTelly Johnson Jr. 74 Yd Run (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)9–13
- Q3 7:52MDSean O'Haire 29 Yd Field Goal 3–13
- Q2 0:03NIUAndrew Glass 20 Yd Field Goal 3–10
- Q2 8:46MDDorian Fleming 12 Yd pass from Malik Washington (Sean O'Haire Kick)0–10
- Q1 4:30MDSean O'Haire 36 Yd Field Goal 0–3
How the model called it
- PassJosh Holst 14/22, 91 YDS
- RushChavon Wright 27 CAR, 90 YDS
- RecGary Givens III 2 REC, 26 YDS
- PassMalik Washington 19/35, 254 YDS, 2 TD
- RushNolan Ray 11 CAR, 50 YDS
- RecDorian Fleming 4 REC, 70 YDS, 1 TD
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsMD up 4 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,449 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q1 13:54NIU +17%
Bryce McFerson punt for 48 yds, fair catch by DeAree Rogers at the NIU 35
- Q4 9:20MD +16%
Malik Washington pass complete to Shaleak Knotts for 42 yds for a TD (Sean O'Haire KICK)
- Q4 12:15MD +11%
No Huddle-Shotgun Williams,DeJuan rush right for 9 yards gain to the UMD32 (Urwiler,Quinton) PENALTY UMD Holding (Herron,Alan) 10 yards from UMD23 to UMD13. NO PLAY
- Q4 14:04MD +10%
Bryce McFerson punt for 41 yds for a touchback
- Q4 12:20NIU +10%
Danny Vuckovic punt for 53 yds, Josiah McLaurin returns for 8 yds to the MD 23
- Q3 2:36MD +5%
Shotgun Washington,Malik pass incomplete deep right to Smith Jr.,Octavian thrown to NIU00 PENALTY NIU Pass Interference (Lyons,Keshawn) 15 yards from NIU34 to NIU19, 1…
FAQ
What was the final score of Northern Illinois vs. Maryland?
Northern Illinois 9, Maryland 20.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
Yes — the model's pick (MD) was correct.
| NIU | MD | |
|---|---|---|
| 271 | Total yards | 340 |
| 91 | Passing yards | 254 |
| 180 | Rushing yards | 86 |
| 13 | First downs | 21 |
| 7-20 | 3rd down | 4-12 |
| 4-6 | 4th down | 1-2 |
| 14/22 | Comp/Att | 19/36 |
| 4.1 | Yards per pass | 7.1 |
| 3.8 | Yards per rush | 3.1 |
| 0 | Turnovers | 1 |
| 6-55 | Penalties | 3-30 |
| 33:35 | Possession | 26:25 |
Costliest call
Q2 0:03 NIU field goal on 4th & 3 at MD 3. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 0.83 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 9:20MDShaleak Knotts 42 Yd pass from Malik Washington (Sean O'Haire Kick)9–20
- Q3 6:22NIUTelly Johnson Jr. 74 Yd Run (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)9–13
- Q3 7:52MDSean O'Haire 29 Yd Field Goal 3–13
- Q2 0:03NIUAndrew Glass 20 Yd Field Goal 3–10
- Q2 8:46MDDorian Fleming 12 Yd pass from Malik Washington (Sean O'Haire Kick)0–10
- Q1 4:30MDSean O'Haire 36 Yd Field Goal 0–3
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (MD Elo 1509, NIU Elo 1470 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects MD -4 (62% to win) — 12.5 points clear of NIU's market line of -16.5. That is a disagreement, not a betting edge — sides we favour have not covered at better than breakeven.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 15 · through week 2 · drive simulation
Season form — 2025
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles| NIU | MD | |
|---|---|---|
| -22.4 (#129) | CORE overall | -3.8 (#75) |
| -15 / +8 | offense / defense | -7 / -4 |
| 1.59 | points / drive | 1.74 |
| 2.42 | allowed / drive | 2.30 |
| 31% | three-and-outs | 28% |
| -19 | pass over expected | +14 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →