SECU Stadium
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NIU | 0 | 3 | 6 | 0 | 9 |
| MD | 3 | 7 | 3 | 7 | 20 |
Gridpex Model Prediction
Power rating (Elo)
MD 1509
NIU 1470
Projected spread
MD -4
incl. home edge
Model pick
MD
62% to win
Market spread
MD -16.5
sportsbook line
Model edge
NIU
12.5 pts of value
Win prob: model / mkt
62%
MD · market 85%
Our model blends Elo ratings (MD Elo 1509, NIU Elo 1470) plus home-field advantage. That projects MD -4 (62% to win) — 12.5 points of value on NIU versus the market line of -16.5.
Win Probability
Hover over the chart to see play details
MD (top)NIU (bottom)· colored dots = scoresFinal: MD 100%
Key matchups · Pro
- NIU pass offense (0.00 PPA) vs. MD pass defense (0.16 allowed) — edge MD.
- MD rush offense (0.04 PPA) vs. NIU rush defense (0.17 allowed) — edge NIU.
- MD pass offense (0.23 PPA) vs. NIU pass defense (0.19 allowed) — edge MD.
Drive-by-drive
NIU 2/11 scoring drives← own end zone →MD 4/12 scoring drives
MDPUNT3 pl, 7 yds· own 10Q1
NIUPUNT11 pl, 22 yds· own 35Q1
MDFG8 pl, 62 yds· own 20Q1
Comparable Situations — historical outcomes
MD up 4 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,449 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
65%
MD went on to win
A genuinely vulnerable lead — comebacks are common
FAQ
What was the final score of Northern Illinois vs. Maryland?
Northern Illinois 9, Maryland 20.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
Yes — the model's pick (MD) was correct.
Why trust the number?Gridpex's model is walk-forward validated on 2014–24, out-of-sample: +0.28 pts mean Closing Line Value and 53.5% beat the close. We report the record and validate every pick against closing line value.
🤖
Gridiron IQ Model
Pinned · the model's take
Called it — I had MD pregame. ✓ We log the misses too, but not this one.