#2Nolan Ray

RB·Maryland·2025

Nolan Ray is a Pass-Catching Back for Maryland. Nolan's 2025 season ranks in the 0th percentile nationally by opponent-adjusted EPA per play across 83 plays — a developing rate for the RB.

What projects, and what doesn't · RBs · held out 2019-2025

How well one season predicts the next, measured on seasons the model never trained on. 1.00 would be perfectly predictable; 0.00 means last year told us nothing.

Usage share (volume)0.52
Beats guessing the RB average by 18%. n=4,219 RB seasons
EPA per play (efficiency)0.10
Not projectable — we do not forecast this. n=3,575 RB seasons
Total EPA (value)0.41
Beats guessing the RB average by 9%. n=3,575 RB seasons

Across all positions, usage carries year to year at 0.47 and efficiency at 0.07. So Nolan Ray's projection is a projection of opportunity — how much of the offense he runs through. How well he converts it is something this model does not claim to know a year in advance, and the number above is why.

2025 Production

Rushing

289 Rush yards2 Rush TD67 Carries4.3 Yards/carry

Receiving

11 Receptions50 Rec yards0 Rec TD4.5 Yards/rec

Performance Analysis · 2025 · vs RB peers

Efficiency0
Volume31
Explosiveness26
Consistency33
Receiving71

Player type

Pass-Catching Back

Third-down weapon out of the backfield. Routes, hands, and separation in coverage define this role as much as rushing.

3rd-down backReceiving threatPass protection

Peer percentiles

Opponent-adjusted EPA (WEPA/play)0th %ile · below avg

Game-to-game consistency33th %ile · below avg

Key findings

▸Below-average efficiency vs RB peers — value comes through volume, not per-play impact.
▸High game-to-game variance — boom-or-bust profile.
▸Production faded as the season progressed — 0.31 EPA/play decline from first to second half.
▸Peak game: 0.64 EPA/play in Wk 11 vs Rutgers (SP+ 1).

NIL Market Tier· 2025

On3 valuation ↗

Contributor

Rotational contributor. Smaller collective or local deals.

Tier is a model estimate based on position, school brand, performance rank, and usage — not a reported deal. NIL deals are private. For a real market valuation, see On3's NIL profile, which factors in social following and actual deal tracking.

Game Log · box score + EPA, week by week

EPA per play · x-axis: weekabove 0 = added points · below = lost

Wk	Opponent	Result	Opp SP+	Car	Rush Yds	Avg	Rush TD	Rec	Rec Yds	Rec TD	EPA/play
1	vsFlorida Atlantic	W39-7	-8.7	8	25	3.1	0	2	14	0	-0.03
2	vsNorthern Illinois	W20-9	-16.7	11	50	4.5	0	2	7	0	0.02
3	vsTowson	W44-17	—	9	23	2.6	1	—	—	—	-0.07
4	@Wisconsin	W27-10	-4.4	4	11	2.8	0	—	—	—	-0.44
6	vsWashington	L20-24	18.4	4	17	4.3	0	1	2	0	0.09
7	vsNebraska	L31-34	6.2	11	62	5.6	1	4	23	0	0.24
8	@UCLA	L17-20	-8.7	4	8	2.0	0	—	—	—	-0.51
10	vsIndiana	L10-55	32.4	3	5	1.7	0	—	—	—	-0.56
11	@Rutgers	L20-35	1.0	5	77	15.4	0	1	1	0	0.64
12	@Illinois	L6-24	12.9	5	6	1.2	0	—	—	—	-0.76
13	vsMichigan	L20-45	12.4	1	4	4.0	0	1	3	0	-0.04
14	vsMichigan State	L28-38	-3.4	2	1	0.5	0	—	—	—	-0.84

Usage & Situational · Pro

Snap-share proxy

Overall

11.0%

Passing plays

4.3%

Rushing plays

22.6%

Standard downs

13.2%

Passing downs

6.7%

EPA by down type

Standard downs: -0.01
Passing downs: -0.25
Pass / Rush EPA: -0.25 / 0.01

Usage = share of team plays (CFBD has no true snap counts).