Rynearson StadiumConference gameClosing line: NIU +-1.5 · EMU covered
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NIU | 0 | 3 | 7 | 0 | 10 |
| EMU | 3 | 3 | 0 | 10 | 16 |
Team stats
NIUthis game · better side highlightedEMU
310
Total yards
29994
Passing yards
147216
Rushing yards
15214
First downs
174-16 · 25%
Third down
Gridpex Model Prediction
Power rating (Elo)
EMU 1198
NIU 1356
Projected spread
EMU +3.9
incl. home edge
Model pick
NIU
61% to win
Market spread
EMU +1.5
sportsbook line
Model edge
NIU
2.4 pts of value
Win prob: model / mkt
39%
EMU · market 57%
Our model blends Elo ratings (EMU Elo 1198, NIU Elo 1356) plus home-field advantage. That projects EMU +3.9 (39% to win) — 2.4 points of value on NIU versus the market line of +1.5.
Win Probability
Hover over the chart to see play details
EMU (top)NIU (bottom)· colored dots = scoresFinal: EMU 100%
Key matchups · Pro
- NIU pass offense (0.00 PPA) vs. EMU pass defense (0.35 allowed) — edge EMU.
- EMU pass offense (0.28 PPA) vs. NIU pass defense (0.19 allowed) — edge EMU.
- NIU rush offense (0.11 PPA) vs. EMU rush defense (0.19 allowed) — edge EMU.
Drive-by-drive
NIU 2/12 scoring drives← own end zone →EMU 4/12 scoring drives
EMUPUNT3 pl, 8 yds· own 25Q1
NIUPUNT3 pl, 1 yds· opp 49Q1
EMUFG14 pl, 63 yds· own 20Q1
Comparable Situations — historical outcomes
NIU up 4 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,449 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
65%
NIU went on to win
A genuinely vulnerable lead — comebacks are common
FAQ
What was the final score of Northern Illinois vs. Eastern Michigan?
Northern Illinois 10, Eastern Michigan 16.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
No — the model picked NIU, which didn't hit. We report the misses too.
Why trust the number?Gridpex's model is walk-forward validated on 2014–24, out-of-sample: +0.28 pts mean Closing Line Value and 53.5% beat the close. We report the record and validate every pick against closing line value.
🤖
Gridiron IQ Model
Pinned · the model's take
I had NIU pregame and it didn't hit. We report the misses — that was one.