Northern Illinois vs. Eastern Michigan: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
NIUTeam statsEMU
- Q4 5:40EMURudy Kessinger 28 Yd Field Goal 10–16
- Q4 8:31EMUJoshua Long 6 Yd pass from Noah Kim (Rudy Kessinger Kick)10–13
- Q3 4:26NIUTelly Johnson Jr. 80 Yd Run (Andrew Glass Kick)10–6
- Q2 1:42EMURudy Kessinger 49 Yd Field Goal 3–6
- Q2 13:40NIUAndrew Glass 30 Yd Field Goal 3–3
- Q1 7:16EMURudy Kessinger 35 Yd Field Goal 0–3
How the model called it
- PassBrady Davidson 11/26, 94 YDS, 1 INT
- RushTelly Johnson Jr. 12 CAR, 159 YDS, 1 TD
- RecGary Givens III 3 REC, 42 YDS
- PassNoah Kim 19/32, 147 YDS, 1 TD, 1 INT
- RushDontae McMillan 23 CAR, 104 YDS
- RecJoshua Long 5 REC, 52 YDS, 1 TD
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsNIU up 4 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,449 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q4 8:31EMU +43%
Noah Kim pass complete to Joshua Long for 6 yds for a TD (Rudy Kessinger KICK)
- Q4 2:18NIU +31%
Mitchell Tomasek punt for 47 yds for a touchback
- Q3 13:17EMU +27%
Jake Ference punt for 43 yds
- Q4 6:49EMU +19%
PENALTY EMU False Start (Snively,Owen) 5 yards from NIU10 to NIU15. NO PLAY
- Q4 2:14NIU +17%
Brady Davidson pass complete to George Dimopoulos for 3 yds to the NIU 23
- Q4 8:26NIU +17%
Chavon Wright run for 6 yds to the NIU 31
FAQ
What was the final score of Northern Illinois vs. Eastern Michigan?
Northern Illinois 10, Eastern Michigan 16.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
No — the model picked NIU, which didn't hit. We report the misses too.
| NIU | EMU | |
|---|---|---|
| 332 | Total yards | 296 |
| 94 | Passing yards | 147 |
| 238 | Rushing yards | 149 |
| 15 | First downs | 17 |
| 4-16 | 3rd down | 6-16 |
| 3-5 | 4th down | 1-1 |
| 11/26 | Comp/Att | 19/32 |
| 3.6 | Yards per pass | 4.6 |
| 6.1 | Yards per rush | 3.9 |
| 1 | Turnovers | 1 |
| 0-0 | Penalties | 6-40 |
| 29:54 | Possession | 30:06 |
Costliest call
Q2 1:42 EMU field goal on 4th & 2 at NIU 31. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 0.72 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 5:40EMURudy Kessinger 28 Yd Field Goal 10–16
- Q4 8:31EMUJoshua Long 6 Yd pass from Noah Kim (Rudy Kessinger Kick)10–13
- Q3 4:26NIUTelly Johnson Jr. 80 Yd Run (Andrew Glass Kick)10–6
- Q2 1:42EMURudy Kessinger 49 Yd Field Goal 3–6
- Q2 13:40NIUAndrew Glass 30 Yd Field Goal 3–3
- Q1 7:16EMURudy Kessinger 35 Yd Field Goal 0–3
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (EMU Elo 1198, NIU Elo 1356 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects EMU +3.9 (41% to win) — 2.4 points clear of NIU's market line of +1.5. That is a disagreement, not a betting edge — sides we favour have not covered at better than breakeven.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2025
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profilesNorthern Illinois leads 28–8–2 · 42% have been one-possession games
| NIU | EMU | |
|---|---|---|
| -22.4 (#129) | CORE overall | -16.0 (#114) |
| -15 / +8 | offense / defense | -3 / +13 |
| 1.59 | points / drive | 2.13 |
| 2.42 | allowed / drive | 2.86 |
| 31% | three-and-outs | 27% |
| -19 | pass over expected | +4 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →