North Alabama vs. Western Kentucky: Final Score & Recap

ReplayCommandBoxAnalyticsMatchup

North Alabama

06

Western Kentucky1-0

▸0055

Final

Houchens Industries-L.T. Smith Stadium

	1	2	3	4	T
NORT	6	0	0	0	6
WKU	14	28	3	10	55

NORTTeam statsWKU

258Total yards563

105Pass399

153Rush164

17First downs26

5-173rd down5-12

1Turnovers0

29:49Possession30:11

Scoring plays

• Q4 6:30WKUJohn Cannon 43 Yd Field Goal 6–55
• Q4 14:50WKUMarvin Sims 8 Yd pass from Rodney Tisdale Jr. (John Cannon Kick)6–52
• Q3 5:08WKUJohn Cannon 46 Yd Field Goal 6–45
• Q2 0:48WKUMatthew Henry 14 Yd pass from Maverick McIvor (John Cannon Kick)6–42
• Q2 2:25WKUK.D. Hutchinson 12 Yd pass from Maverick McIvor (John Cannon Kick)6–35
• Q2 5:34WKUK.D. Hutchinson 78 Yd pass from Maverick McIvor (John Cannon Kick)6–28
• Q2 8:14WKUJairus Mack 20 Yd pass from Maverick McIvor (John Cannon Kick)6–21
• Q1 0:15WKUQuincy Burroughs 9 Yd pass from Maverick McIvor (John Cannon Kick)6–14
• Q1 2:15NORTIan Vachon 47 Yd Field Goal 6–7
• Q1 5:58NORTIan Vachon 25 Yd Field Goal 3–7
• Q1 11:58WKUGeorge Hart III 1 Yd Run (John Cannon Kick)0–7

How the model called it

Market line

WKU −27.5

Against the number

WKU covered

line WKU −27.5

Win probability

ours solid · ESPN dashed

WKU 100%50%NORT 100%

Kickoff161 plays →Final

Tap or hover on the chart to see play details

WKU (top)NORT (bottom)· colored dots = scoresFinal: WKU 100%

How the line closed

model vs market

Closing line

WKU −27.5

Closing total

60.5

Model line

—

Actual result

NORT 6 – 55 WKU

Leaders

North Alabama

• PassAri Patu 11/20, 86 YDS
• RushDestin Wade 5 CAR, 34 YDS
• RecJustin Pegues 5 REC, 52 YDS

Western Kentucky

• PassMaverick McIvor 24/31, 305 YDS, 5 TD
• RushJaden McGill 9 CAR, 46 YDS
• RecK.D. Hutchinson 5 REC, 113 YDS, 2 TD

Tempo

what this pace leaves on the clock

15.4sper snap · faster the national 24.5s

fastnational avgslow

Snaps run

156

Points / snap

0.39

This exact spot, historically

empirical, no ratings

WKU up 39 entering the 4th quarter. Across 218 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):

100%

WKU went on to win

A near-lock historically

Most comparable games

WJacksonville State vs East Tennessee State49-3WSouthern Illinois vs Austin Peay49-23WOhio State vs Western Kentucky63-10WJacksonville State vs Louisiana Tech56-17WOregon vs Arizona State49-13

Fourth downs

19 calls

NORT gave up 2.5 points to the model on fourth down.NORT 8/12 · WKU 5/6 agreed

FAQ

What was the final score of North Alabama vs. Western Kentucky?

North Alabama 6, Western Kentucky 55.

Did Gridpex's model pick hit?

Yes — the model's pick (WKU) was correct.

Situational splits

what the averages hide

NORT

WKU

27%

Success rate

50%

-0.33

EPA / pass

0.87

0.14

EPA / rush

0.15

27%

Early-down success

52%

25%

Pass success

58%

29%

Rush success

40%

10%

Explosive play rate (15+ yds)

17%

18%

Stuffed rush rate

26%

56%

Pass rate

55%

7.1

Avg 3rd-down distance

7.8

NORT

7.1 yards to go on 3rd down

78 scrimmage snaps

WKU

7.8 yards to go on 3rd down

78 scrimmage snaps

Team stats

the basics, from ESPN

NORT		WKU
258	Total yards	563
105	Passing yards	399
153	Rushing yards	164
17	First downs	26
5-17	3rd down	5-12
0-3	4th down	1-2
16/35	Comp/Att	30/39
3.0	Yards per pass	10.2
4.1	Yards per rush	5.0
1	Turnovers	0
7-80	Penalties	12-130
29:49	Possession	30:11

Fourth downs

19 calls

NORT

8/12 with the model

−2.5 pts · −0.0% win prob

WKU

5/6 with the model

−0.8 pts · −0.0% win prob

Costliest call

Q2 1:47 NORT go for it on 4th & 10 at NORT 25. The model preferred punt, a gap of 1.00 points.

Every call, priced (19)

Drive chart

every possession, start to finish

NORT 2/13 scoring drives← own end zone →WKU 9/14 scoring drives

WKUPUNT3 pl, 7 yds· own 25Q1

WKUTD4 pl, 13 yds· opp 13Q1

NORTFG13 pl, 70 yds· own 23Q1

WKUPUNT3 pl, 0 yds· own 25Q1

NORTFG7 pl, 51 yds· own 20Q1

WKUTD5 pl, 75 yds· own 25Q1

NORTPUNT8 pl, 23 yds· own 11Q1

WKUTD8 pl, 72 yds· own 28Q2

NORTPUNT5 pl, 5 yds· own 25Q2

WKUTD1 pl, 78 yds· own 22Q2

NORTPUNT3 pl, 5 yds· own 25Q2

WKUTD5 pl, 64 yds· own 36Q2

NORTDOWNS4 pl, 0 yds· own 25Q2

WKUTD5 pl, 25 yds· opp 25Q2

NORTPUNT3 pl, 9 yds· own 25Q2

WKUEND1 pl, -1 yds· own 20Q2

NORTPUNT5 pl, 33 yds· own 25Q3

WKUTD8 pl, 67 yds· own 33Q3

WKUPUNT3 pl, 9 yds· own 7Q3

NORTPUNT4 pl, 3 yds· own 27Q3

WKUFG9 pl, 32 yds· own 40Q3

NORTDOWNS9 pl, 42 yds· own 25Q3

NORTDOWNS10 pl, 47 yds· own 25Q4

WKUFG10 pl, 47 yds· own 28Q4

NORTPUNT3 pl, 1 yds· own 25Q4

WKUDOWNS9 pl, 55 yds· own 30Q4

NORTEND2 pl, 4 yds· own 15Q4

Scoring plays

• Q4 6:30WKUJohn Cannon 43 Yd Field Goal 6–55
• Q4 14:50WKUMarvin Sims 8 Yd pass from Rodney Tisdale Jr. (John Cannon Kick)6–52
• Q3 5:08WKUJohn Cannon 46 Yd Field Goal 6–45
• Q2 0:48WKUMatthew Henry 14 Yd pass from Maverick McIvor (John Cannon Kick)6–42
• Q2 2:25WKUK.D. Hutchinson 12 Yd pass from Maverick McIvor (John Cannon Kick)6–35
• Q2 5:34WKUK.D. Hutchinson 78 Yd pass from Maverick McIvor (John Cannon Kick)6–28
• Q2 8:14WKUJairus Mack 20 Yd pass from Maverick McIvor (John Cannon Kick)6–21
• Q1 0:15WKUQuincy Burroughs 9 Yd pass from Maverick McIvor (John Cannon Kick)6–14
• Q1 2:15NORTIan Vachon 47 Yd Field Goal 6–7
• Q1 5:58NORTIan Vachon 25 Yd Field Goal 3–7
• Q1 11:58WKUGeorge Hart III 1 Yd Run (John Cannon Kick)0–7

Model prediction

how the number is built

One or both teams lack a power rating (often an FCS opponent), so the model prediction is low-confidence for this game.

Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →