Houchens Industries-L.T. Smith StadiumClosing line: WKU -27.5 · WKU covered
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NORT | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6 |
| WKU | 14 | 28 | 3 | 10 | 55 |
Team stats
NORTthis game · better side highlightedWKU
258
Total yards
564105
Passing yards
399153
Rushing yards
16517
First downs
265-17 · 29%
Third down
5-12 · 42%Gridpex Model Prediction
One or both teams lack a power rating (often an FCS opponent), so the model prediction is low-confidence for this game.
Win Probability
Hover over the chart to see play details
WKU (top)NORT (bottom)· colored dots = scoresFinal: WKU 100%
Drive-by-drive
NORT 2/13 scoring drives← own end zone →WKU 9/14 scoring drives
WKUPUNT3 pl, 7 yds· own 25Q1
WKUTD4 pl, 13 yds· opp 13Q1
NORTFG13 pl, 70 yds· own 23Q1
Comparable Situations — historical outcomes
WKU up 39 entering the 4th quarter. Across 218 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
100%
WKU went on to win
A near-lock historically
FAQ
What was the final score of North Alabama vs. Western Kentucky?
North Alabama 6, Western Kentucky 55.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
Yes — the model's pick (WKU) was correct.
Why trust the number?Gridpex's model is walk-forward validated on 2014–24, out-of-sample: +0.28 pts mean Closing Line Value and 53.5% beat the close. We report the record and validate every pick against closing line value.
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Gridiron IQ Model
Pinned · the model's take
Called it — I had WKU pregame. ✓ We log the misses too, but not this one.