Nicholls vs. Texas State: Final Score & Recap

ReplayCommandBoxAnalyticsMatchup

Nicholls0-1

03

Texas State2-1

▸0035

Final

Bobcat Stadium (TX)

	1	2	3	4	T
NICH	3	0	0	0	3
TXST	7	21	7	0	35

NICHTeam statsTXST

224Total yards401

97Pass194

127Rush207

17First downs25

5-163rd down11-14

1Turnovers1

33:09Possession26:51

Scoring plays

• Q3 2:38TXSTGreg Burrell 5 Yd Run (Tyler Robles Kick)3–35
• Q2 2:17TXSTLincoln Pare 9 Yd Run (Tyler Robles Kick)3–28
• Q2 8:33TXSTTorrance Burgess Jr. 7 Yd Run (Tyler Robles Kick)3–21
• Q2 14:17TXSTBrad Jackson 4 Yd Run (Tyler Robles Kick)3–14
• Q1 1:52NICHGabriel Showalter 32 Yd Field Goal 3–7
• Q1 9:15TXSTBrad Jackson 9 Yd Run (Tyler Robles Kick)0–7

How the model called it

Market line

TXST −32.5

Against the number

NICH covered

line TXST −32.5

What the numbers say

• NICH played behind the sticks — third downs that long convert rarely, and TXST did not face the same ones. 3rd & 7.3 vs 3rd & 3.7

Win probability

ours solid · ESPN dashed

TXST 100%50%NICH 100%

Kickoff150 plays →Final

Tap or hover on the chart to see play details

TXST (top)NICH (bottom)· colored dots = scoresFinal: TXST 100%

How the line closed

model vs market

Closing line

TXST −32.5

Closing total

57.0

Model line

—

Actual result

NICH 3 – 35 TXST

Leaders

Nicholls

• PassDeuce Hogan 15/21, 97 YDS, 1 INT
• RushMiequle Brock 11 CAR, 59 YDS
• RecMiequle Brock 6 REC, 36 YDS

Texas State

• PassBrad Jackson 13/20, 180 YDS
• RushLincoln Pare 15 CAR, 64 YDS, 1 TD
• RecKylen Evans 4 REC, 88 YDS

Tempo

what this pace leaves on the clock

26.5sper snap · slower the national 24.5s

fastnational avgslow

Snaps run

135

Points / snap

0.28

This exact spot, historically

empirical, no ratings

TXST up 32 entering the 4th quarter. Across 373 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):

100%

TXST went on to win

A near-lock historically

Most comparable games

WArkansas vs Western Carolina56-13WMontana State vs Utah Tech63-20WTexas A&M vs New Mexico52-10WArizona vs Northern Arizona38-3WNC State vs VMI45-7

Fourth downs

12 calls

NICH gave up 1.0 points to the model on fourth down.NICH 6/8 · TXST 0/2 agreed

FAQ

What was the final score of Nicholls vs. Texas State?

Nicholls 3, Texas State 35.

Did Gridpex's model pick hit?

Yes — the model's pick (TXST) was correct.

Situational splits

what the averages hide

NICH

TXST

34%

Success rate

52%

-0.22

EPA / pass

0.40

-0.07

EPA / rush

0.29

33%

Early-down success

44%

39%

Pass success

52%

32%

Rush success

51%

8%

Explosive play rate (15+ yds)

7%

32%

Stuffed rush rate

11%

39%

Pass rate

31%

7.3

Avg 3rd-down distance

3.7

NICH

7.3 yards to go on 3rd down

67 scrimmage snaps

TXST

3.7 yards to go on 3rd down

68 scrimmage snaps

Team stats

the basics, from ESPN

NICH		TXST
224	Total yards	401
97	Passing yards	194
127	Rushing yards	207
17	First downs	25
5-16	3rd down	11-14
1-3	4th down	0-0
15/22	Comp/Att	14/22
4.4	Yards per pass	8.8
3.0	Yards per rush	4.4
1	Turnovers	1
4-36	Penalties	6-67
33:09	Possession	26:51

Fourth downs

12 calls

NICH

6/8 with the model

−1.0 pts · −0.0% win prob

TXST

0/2 with the model

−0.7 pts · −0.0% win prob

Costliest call

Q3 7:08 NICH punt on 4th & 2 at NICH 10. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 0.52 points.

Every call, priced (12)

Drive chart

every possession, start to finish

NICH 1/9 scoring drives← own end zone →TXST 5/10 scoring drives

TXSTTD13 pl, 92 yds· own 8Q1

NICHFG13 pl, 60 yds· own 25Q1

TXSTTD6 pl, 44 yds· opp 44Q1

NICHPUNT3 pl, 6 yds· own 25Q2

TXSTTD8 pl, 92 yds· own 8Q2

NICHPUNT4 pl, 13 yds· own 25Q2

TXSTTD12 pl, 85 yds· own 15Q2

NICHINT11 pl, 72 yds· own 25Q2

TXSTEND1 pl, 2 yds· own 20Q2

NICHPUNT4 pl, 19 yds· own 25Q3

TXSTPUNT10 pl, 40 yds· own 21Q3

NICHPUNT3 pl, 8 yds· own 2Q3

TXSTTD11 pl, 46 yds· opp 46Q3

NICHDOWNS13 pl, 47 yds· own 25Q3

TXSTPUNT6 pl, 22 yds· own 28Q4

NICHPUNT10 pl, 39 yds· own 11Q4

TXSTFUM1 pl, 9 yds· own 20Q4

NICHDOWNS4 pl, 6 yds· opp 29Q4

TXSTEND1 pl, -1 yds· own 23Q4

Scoring plays

• Q3 2:38TXSTGreg Burrell 5 Yd Run (Tyler Robles Kick)3–35
• Q2 2:17TXSTLincoln Pare 9 Yd Run (Tyler Robles Kick)3–28
• Q2 8:33TXSTTorrance Burgess Jr. 7 Yd Run (Tyler Robles Kick)3–21
• Q2 14:17TXSTBrad Jackson 4 Yd Run (Tyler Robles Kick)3–14
• Q1 1:52NICHGabriel Showalter 32 Yd Field Goal 3–7
• Q1 9:15TXSTBrad Jackson 9 Yd Run (Tyler Robles Kick)0–7

Model prediction

how the number is built

One or both teams lack a power rating (often an FCS opponent), so the model prediction is low-confidence for this game.

Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →