New Mexico vs. Boise State: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
UNMTeam statsBOIS
- Q4 1:16UNMKeagan Johnson 4 Yd pass from James Laubstein (James Laubstein Run for Two-Point Conversion)25–41
- Q4 5:14BOISBen Ford 25 Yd pass from Maddux Madsen (Colton Boomer Kick)17–41
- Q4 7:31BOISTroy Grizzle 10 Yd pass from Oscar Doyle (Colton Boomer Kick)17–34
- Q4 14:22BOISSire Gaines 4 Yd Run (Colton Boomer Kick)17–27
- Q3 4:21UNMLuke Drzewiecki 29 Yd Field Goal 17–20
- Q3 9:22BOISColton Boomer 50 Yd Field Goal 14–20
- Q2 3:20BOISBen Ford 6 Yd pass from Maddux Madsen (Colton Boomer Kick)14–17
- Q2 10:30UNMDorian Thomas 1 Yd pass from Jack Layne (Luke Drzewiecki Kick)14–10
- Q2 14:47UNMDamon Bankston 100 Yd Kickoff Return (Luke Drzewiecki Kick)7–10
- Q1 0:00BOISSire Gaines 2 Yd Run (Colton Boomer Kick)0–10
- Q1 11:19BOISColton Boomer 24 Yd Field Goal 0–3
How the model called it
- PassJack Layne 7/17, 115 YDS, 1 TD, 2 INT
- RushDamon Bankston 9 CAR, 18 YDS
- RecDorian Thomas 4 REC, 61 YDS, 1 TD
- PassMaddux Madsen 21/31, 226 YDS, 2 TD
- RushDylan Riley 18 CAR, 101 YDS
- RecBen Ford 6 REC, 78 YDS, 2 TD
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsBOIS up 3 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,457 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
FAQ
What was the final score of New Mexico vs. Boise State?
New Mexico 25, Boise State 41.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
Yes — the model's pick (BOIS) was correct.
| UNM | BOIS | |
|---|---|---|
| 231 | Total yards | 397 |
| 182 | Passing yards | 236 |
| 49 | Rushing yards | 161 |
| 11 | First downs | 27 |
| 4-13 | 3rd down | 7-18 |
| 2-3 | 4th down | 6-7 |
| 15/30 | Comp/Att | 22/32 |
| 6.1 | Yards per pass | 7.4 |
| 2.0 | Yards per rush | 3.0 |
| 3 | Turnovers | 0 |
| 8-69 | Penalties | 7-50 |
| 19:25 | Possession | 40:35 |
Costliest call
Q4 7:31 BOIS go for it on 4th & 8 at UNM 10. The model preferred field goal, a gap of 0.62 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 1:16UNMKeagan Johnson 4 Yd pass from James Laubstein (James Laubstein Run for Two-Point Conversion)25–41
- Q4 5:14BOISBen Ford 25 Yd pass from Maddux Madsen (Colton Boomer Kick)17–41
- Q4 7:31BOISTroy Grizzle 10 Yd pass from Oscar Doyle (Colton Boomer Kick)17–34
- Q4 14:22BOISSire Gaines 4 Yd Run (Colton Boomer Kick)17–27
- Q3 4:21UNMLuke Drzewiecki 29 Yd Field Goal 17–20
- Q3 9:22BOISColton Boomer 50 Yd Field Goal 14–20
- Q2 3:20BOISBen Ford 6 Yd pass from Maddux Madsen (Colton Boomer Kick)14–17
- Q2 10:30UNMDorian Thomas 1 Yd pass from Jack Layne (Luke Drzewiecki Kick)14–10
- Q2 14:47UNMDamon Bankston 100 Yd Kickoff Return (Luke Drzewiecki Kick)7–10
- Q1 0:00BOISSire Gaines 2 Yd Run (Colton Boomer Kick)0–10
- Q1 11:19BOISColton Boomer 24 Yd Field Goal 0–3
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (BOIS Elo 1654, UNM Elo 1416 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects BOIS -11.9 (79% to win) — 3.1 points clear of UNM's market line of -15. That is a disagreement, not a betting edge — sides we favour have not covered at better than breakeven.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2025
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profilesBoise State leads 14–1 · Boise State has won 8 straight · 13% have been one-possession games
| UNM | BOIS | |
|---|---|---|
| +0.5 (#63) | CORE overall | +5.3 (#55) |
| -2 / -3 | offense / defense | -1 / -7 |
| 2.50 | points / drive | 2.37 |
| 2.02 | allowed / drive | 1.98 |
| 26% | three-and-outs | 22% |
| +1 | pass over expected | -1 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →