Albertsons StadiumConference game
Sun, Oct 12, 1:45 AM
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| UNM | 0 | 14 | 3 | 8 | 25 |
| BOIS | 10 | 7 | 3 | 21 | 41 |
Our model blends Elo ratings (BOIS Elo 1654, UNM Elo 1416) plus home-field advantage. That projects BOIS -11.9 (81% to win) — 3.1 points of value on UNM versus the market line of -15.
BOIS up 3 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,457 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
New Mexico 25, Boise State 41.
Yes — the model's pick (BOIS) was correct.
Why trust the number?Gridpex's model is walk-forward validated on 2014–24, out-of-sample: +0.28 pts mean Closing Line Value and 53.5% beat the close. We report the record and validate every pick against closing line value.
Called it — I had BOIS pregame. ✓ We log the misses too, but not this one.
Jack Layne pass complete to Damon Bankston for 36 yds to the BOIS 36 for a 1ST down
James Laubstein pass complete to Dorian Thomas for 26 yds to the BOIS 32 for a 1ST down
Ben Ford 25 Yd pass from Maddux Madsen (Colton Boomer Kick)
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