New Mexico State vs. New Mexico: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
NMSUTeam statsUNM
- Q4 5:09UNMScottre Humphrey 8 Yd pass from Jack Layne (Luke Drzewiecki Kick)20–38
- Q4 11:37UNMKeagan Johnson 41 Yd pass from Michael Buckley (Luke Drzewiecki Kick)20–31
- Q4 12:34NMSURyan Hawk 39 Yd Field Goal 20–24
- Q3 1:12UNMDorian Thomas 24 Yd pass from Jack Layne (Luke Drzewiecki Kick)17–24
- Q3 9:55UNMLuke Drzewiecki 44 Yd Field Goal 17–17
- Q2 9:27UNMShawn Miller 31 Yd pass from Jack Layne (Luke Drzewiecki Kick)17–14
- Q2 12:18NMSUBernock Iya 42 Yd Fumble Return (Ryan Hawk Kick)17–7
- Q2 14:14NMSURyan Hawk 47 Yd Field Goal 10–7
- Q1 3:56UNMCade Keith 5 Yd pass from Jack Layne (Luke Drzewiecki Kick)7–7
- Q1 9:21NMSUTJ Pride 34 Yd pass from Donovan Faupel (Ryan Hawk Kick)7–0
How the model called it
What the numbers say
- NMSU played behind the sticks — third downs that long convert rarely, and UNM did not face the same ones. 3rd & 9.1 vs 3rd & 6.1
- NMSU lived on explosives rather than sustaining drives — a profile that vanished once those chunk plays were tackled. 14% explosive on a 26% success rate
- PassLogan Fife 20/37, 255 YDS, 1 INT
- RushKadarius Calloway 8 CAR, 34 YDS
- RecGavin Harris 6 REC, 97 YDS
- PassJack Layne 23/30, 303 YDS, 4 TD
- RushScottre Humphrey 13 CAR, 41 YDS
- RecKeagan Johnson 7 REC, 135 YDS, 1 TD
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsUNM up 7 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,299 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q4 1:52UNM +38%
PENALTY NMSU UNS: Unsportsmanlike Conduct (Schnettgoecke,Cole) 15 yards from UNM48 to NMSU37, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY
- Q4 5:00NMSU +24%
Logan Fife sacked by Ky'won McCray for a loss of 5 yards to the NMSU 20
- Q1 10:32NMSU +23%
Daniel Hughes punt for 39 yds, TJ Pride returns for 2 yds to the UNM 49
- Q2 9:27UNM +21%
Jack Layne pass complete to Shawn Miller for 31 yds for a TD (Luke Drzewiecki KICK)
- Q2 12:18NMSU +20%
S. Humphrey run for 5 yds, S. Humphrey fumbled, recovered by NMSU B. Iya, for 42 yds for a TD (R. Hawk KICK)
- Q4 0:00UNM +19%
Scottre Humphrey run for 2 yds to the NMSU 33
FAQ
What was the final score of New Mexico State vs. New Mexico?
New Mexico State 20, New Mexico 38.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
Yes — the model's pick (UNM) was correct.
| NMSU | UNM | |
|---|---|---|
| 304 | Total yards | 476 |
| 289 | Passing yards | 344 |
| 15 | Rushing yards | 132 |
| 16 | First downs | 24 |
| 6-17 | 3rd down | 7-14 |
| 1-3 | 4th down | 0-1 |
| 21/38 | Comp/Att | 24/31 |
| 7.6 | Yards per pass | 11.1 |
| 0.5 | Yards per rush | 3.5 |
| 1 | Turnovers | 2 |
| 9-94 | Penalties | 9-60 |
| 27:55 | Possession | 32:05 |
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 5:09UNMScottre Humphrey 8 Yd pass from Jack Layne (Luke Drzewiecki Kick)20–38
- Q4 11:37UNMKeagan Johnson 41 Yd pass from Michael Buckley (Luke Drzewiecki Kick)20–31
- Q4 12:34NMSURyan Hawk 39 Yd Field Goal 20–24
- Q3 1:12UNMDorian Thomas 24 Yd pass from Jack Layne (Luke Drzewiecki Kick)17–24
- Q3 9:55UNMLuke Drzewiecki 44 Yd Field Goal 17–17
- Q2 9:27UNMShawn Miller 31 Yd pass from Jack Layne (Luke Drzewiecki Kick)17–14
- Q2 12:18NMSUBernock Iya 42 Yd Fumble Return (Ryan Hawk Kick)17–7
- Q2 14:14NMSURyan Hawk 47 Yd Field Goal 10–7
- Q1 3:56UNMCade Keith 5 Yd pass from Jack Layne (Luke Drzewiecki Kick)7–7
- Q1 9:21NMSUTJ Pride 34 Yd pass from Donovan Faupel (Ryan Hawk Kick)7–0
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (UNM Elo 1408, NMSU Elo 1165 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects UNM -12.1 (79% to win) — 4.9 points clear of NMSU's market line of -17. That is a disagreement, not a betting edge — sides we favour have not covered at better than breakeven.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 15 · through week 2 · drive simulation
Season form — 2025
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profilesNew Mexico leads 65–24–2 · New Mexico has won 2 straight · 38% have been one-possession games
| NMSU | UNM | |
|---|---|---|
| -17.5 (#120) | CORE overall | +0.5 (#63) |
| -12 / +6 | offense / defense | -2 / -3 |
| 1.66 | points / drive | 2.50 |
| 2.21 | allowed / drive | 2.02 |
| 28% | three-and-outs | 26% |
| +9 | pass over expected | +1 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →