University Stadium (NM)Closing line: UNM -17 · UNM covered
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NMSU | 7 | 10 | 0 | 3 | 20 |
| UNM | 7 | 7 | 10 | 14 | 38 |
Team stats
NMSUthis game · better side highlightedUNM
304
Total yards
477289
Passing yards
34415
Rushing yards
13316
First downs
246-17 · 35%
Third down
Gridpex Model Prediction
Power rating (Elo)
UNM 1408
NMSU 1165
Projected spread
UNM -12.1
incl. home edge
Model pick
UNM
82% to win
Market spread
UNM -17
sportsbook line
Model edge
NMSU
4.9 pts of value
Win prob: model / mkt
82%
UNM · market 83%
Our model blends Elo ratings (UNM Elo 1408, NMSU Elo 1165) plus home-field advantage. That projects UNM -12.1 (82% to win) — 4.9 points of value on NMSU versus the market line of -17.
Win Probability
Hover over the chart to see play details
UNM (top)NMSU (bottom)· colored dots = scoresFinal: UNM 100%
Key matchups · Pro
- UNM rush offense (0.14 PPA) vs. NMSU rush defense (0.00 allowed) — edge UNM.
- NMSU rush offense (-0.09 PPA) vs. UNM rush defense (0.04 allowed) — edge UNM.
- NMSU pass offense (0.17 PPA) vs. UNM pass defense (0.24 allowed) — edge UNM.
Drive-by-drive
NMSU 3/12 scoring drives← own end zone →UNM 7/13 scoring drives
NMSUPUNT4 pl, 16 yds· own 25Q1
UNMPUNT3 pl, 6 yds· own 6Q1
NMSUTD3 pl, 49 yds· opp 49Q1
Comparable Situations — historical outcomes
UNM up 7 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,299 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
81%
UNM went on to win
A solid but not safe lead
FAQ
What was the final score of New Mexico State vs. New Mexico?
New Mexico State 20, New Mexico 38.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
Yes — the model's pick (UNM) was correct.
Why trust the number?Gridpex's model is walk-forward validated on 2014–24, out-of-sample: +0.28 pts mean Closing Line Value and 53.5% beat the close. We report the record and validate every pick against closing line value.
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Gridiron IQ Model
Pinned · the model's take
Called it — I had UNM pregame. ✓ We log the misses too, but not this one.