New Mexico State vs. Louisiana Tech: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
NMSUTeam statsLT
- Q4 9:06LTOmiri Wiggins 17 Yd Run (Drew Henderson Kick)14–49
- Q4 9:34LTBlake Baker 1 Yd Run (Blake Baker Pass to Clay Thevenin for Two-Point Conversion)14–42
- Q4 12:24LTJacob Bradford 20 Yd Fumble Return (Drew Henderson Kick)14–34
- Q2 0:17LTDrew Henderson 27 Yd Field Goal 14–27
- Q2 1:52NMSUPJ Johnson III 38 Yd pass from Logan Fife (Ryan Hawk Kick)14–24
- Q2 9:46NMSUBrodrick Malone 41 Yd pass from Logan Fife (Ryan Hawk Kick)7–24
- Q2 10:23LTMarlion Jackson 42 Yd pass from Trey Kukuk (Drew Henderson Kick)0–24
- Q2 14:49LTAndrew Burnette 11 Yd Run (Drew Henderson Kick)0–17
- Q1 5:36LTJalen Mickens 40 Yd pass from Blake Baker (Drew Henderson Kick)0–10
- Q1 9:50LTJohn Hoyet Chance 55 Yd Field Goal 0–3
How the model called it
What the numbers say
- NMSU played behind the sticks — third downs that long convert rarely, and LT did not face the same ones. 3rd & 9.8 vs 3rd & 5.7
- NMSU lived on explosives rather than sustaining drives — a profile that vanished once those chunk plays were tackled. 19% explosive on a 31% success rate
- PassLogan Fife 17/33, 283 YDS, 2 TD, 2 INT
- RushDijon Stanley 5 CAR, 18 YDS
- RecPJ Johnson III 7 REC, 157 YDS, 1 TD
- PassBlake Baker 8/16, 182 YDS, 1 TD
- RushBlake Baker 15 CAR, 103 YDS, 1 TD
- RecDavid Pierro 3 REC, 64 YDS
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsLT up 13 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,180 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
FAQ
What was the final score of New Mexico State vs. Louisiana Tech?
New Mexico State 14, Louisiana Tech 49.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
Yes — the model's pick (LT) was correct.
| NMSU | LT | |
|---|---|---|
| 309 | Total yards | 574 |
| 283 | Passing yards | 221 |
| 26 | Rushing yards | 353 |
| 13 | First downs | 28 |
| 1-9 | 3rd down | 11-19 |
| 0-0 | 4th down | 0-0 |
| 17/33 | Comp/Att | 11/20 |
| 8.6 | Yards per pass | 11.1 |
| 1.5 | Yards per rush | 5.4 |
| 3 | Turnovers | 1 |
| 7-76 | Penalties | 11-101 |
| 24:30 | Possession | 35:30 |
Costliest call
Q1 11:31 NMSU field goal on 4th & 5 at LT 36. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 0.25 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 9:06LTOmiri Wiggins 17 Yd Run (Drew Henderson Kick)14–49
- Q4 9:34LTBlake Baker 1 Yd Run (Blake Baker Pass to Clay Thevenin for Two-Point Conversion)14–42
- Q4 12:24LTJacob Bradford 20 Yd Fumble Return (Drew Henderson Kick)14–34
- Q2 0:17LTDrew Henderson 27 Yd Field Goal 14–27
- Q2 1:52NMSUPJ Johnson III 38 Yd pass from Logan Fife (Ryan Hawk Kick)14–24
- Q2 9:46NMSUBrodrick Malone 41 Yd pass from Logan Fife (Ryan Hawk Kick)7–24
- Q2 10:23LTMarlion Jackson 42 Yd pass from Trey Kukuk (Drew Henderson Kick)0–24
- Q2 14:49LTAndrew Burnette 11 Yd Run (Drew Henderson Kick)0–17
- Q1 5:36LTJalen Mickens 40 Yd pass from Blake Baker (Drew Henderson Kick)0–10
- Q1 9:50LTJohn Hoyet Chance 55 Yd Field Goal 0–3
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (LT Elo 1392, NMSU Elo 1244 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects LT -8.3 (72% to win), essentially in line with the market.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 15 · through week 2 · drive simulation
Season form — 2025
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profilesLouisiana Tech leads 9–6 · 33% have been one-possession games
| NMSU | LT | |
|---|---|---|
| -17.5 (#120) | CORE overall | -2.2 (#70) |
| -12 / +6 | offense / defense | -6 / -4 |
| 1.66 | points / drive | 2.08 |
| 2.21 | allowed / drive | 1.61 |
| 28% | three-and-outs | 31% |
| +9 | pass over expected | -9 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →