Joe Aillet StadiumConference gameClosing line: LT -10 · LT covered
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NMSU | 0 | 14 | 0 | 0 | 14 |
| LT | 10 | 17 | 0 | 22 | 49 |
Team stats
NMSUthis game · better side highlightedLT
309
Total yards
575281
Passing yards
22128
Rushing yards
35412
First downs
281-9 · 11%
Third down
Gridpex Model Prediction
Power rating (Elo)
LT 1392
NMSU 1244
Projected spread
LT -8.3
incl. home edge
Model pick
LT
73% to win
Market spread
LT -10
sportsbook line
Model edge
None
aligned w/ market
Win prob: model / mkt
73%
LT · market 76%
Our model blends Elo ratings (LT Elo 1392, NMSU Elo 1244) plus home-field advantage. That projects LT -8.3 (73% to win), essentially in line with the market.
Win Probability
Hover over the chart to see play details
LT (top)NMSU (bottom)· colored dots = scoresFinal: LT 100%
Key matchups · Pro
- LT rush offense (0.14 PPA) vs. NMSU rush defense (0.00 allowed) — edge LT.
- NMSU rush offense (-0.09 PPA) vs. LT rush defense (0.02 allowed) — edge LT.
- LT pass offense (0.19 PPA) vs. NMSU pass defense (0.26 allowed) — edge NMSU.
Drive-by-drive
NMSU 3/15 scoring drives← own end zone →LT 7/14 scoring drives
NMSUMISS9 pl, 39 yds· own 25Q1
LTFG5 pl, 28 yds· own 36Q1
NMSUPUNT5 pl, 29 yds· own 25Q1
Comparable Situations — historical outcomes
LT up 13 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,180 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
91%
LT went on to win
A near-lock historically
FAQ
What was the final score of New Mexico State vs. Louisiana Tech?
New Mexico State 14, Louisiana Tech 49.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
Yes — the model's pick (LT) was correct.
Why trust the number?Gridpex's model is walk-forward validated on 2014–24, out-of-sample: +0.28 pts mean Closing Line Value and 53.5% beat the close. We report the record and validate every pick against closing line value.
🤖
Gridiron IQ Model
Pinned · the model's take
Called it — I had LT pregame. ✓ We log the misses too, but not this one.