Nevada vs. Penn State: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
NEVTeam statsPSU
- Q4 0:25NEVMarcus Bellon 9 Yd pass from AJ Bianco (AJ Bianco Pass to Jett Carpenter for Two-Point Conversion)11–46
- Q4 7:37PSUEthan Grunkemeyer 6 Yd Run (Matthew Parker Kick)3–46
- Q3 3:21PSURyan Barker 39 Yd Field Goal 3–39
- Q3 7:15PSUNicholas Singleton 1 Yd Run (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)3–36
- Q3 9:23PSURyan Barker 32 Yd Field Goal 3–30
- Q2 0:23PSUKyron Hudson 31 Yd pass from Drew Allar (Ryan Barker Kick)3–27
- Q2 2:22PSURyan Barker 28 Yd Field Goal 3–20
- Q2 4:52NEVJoe McFadden 28 Yd Field Goal 3–17
- Q2 10:02PSUKaytron Allen 12 Yd Run (Ryan Barker Kick)0–17
- Q1 1:41PSURyan Barker 28 Yd Field Goal 0–10
- Q1 3:05PSUNicholas Singleton 1 Yd Run (Ryan Barker Kick)0–7
How the model called it
- PassChubba Purdy 7/15, 97 YDS, 1 INT
- RushChubba Purdy 14 CAR, 55 YDS
- RecMarcus Bellon 6 REC, 76 YDS, 1 TD
- PassDrew Allar 22/26, 217 YDS, 1 TD
- RushKaytron Allen 8 CAR, 43 YDS, 1 TD
- RecKyron Hudson 6 REC, 89 YDS, 1 TD
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsPSU up 36 entering the 4th quarter. Across 339 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
FAQ
What was the final score of Nevada vs. Penn State?
Nevada 11, Penn State 46.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
Yes — the model's pick (PSU) was correct.
| NEV | PSU | |
|---|---|---|
| 203 | Total yards | 438 |
| 125 | Passing yards | 303 |
| 78 | Rushing yards | 135 |
| 13 | First downs | 25 |
| 4-11 | 3rd down | 6-13 |
| 1-2 | 4th down | 2-3 |
| 11/21 | Comp/Att | 29/35 |
| 6.0 | Yards per pass | 8.7 |
| 2.5 | Yards per rush | 3.8 |
| 3 | Turnovers | 0 |
| 3-14 | Penalties | 5-45 |
| 26:20 | Possession | 33:40 |
Costliest call
Q4 14:47 NEV go for it on 4th & 6 at PSU 6. The model preferred field goal, a gap of 0.10 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 0:25NEVMarcus Bellon 9 Yd pass from AJ Bianco (AJ Bianco Pass to Jett Carpenter for Two-Point Conversion)11–46
- Q4 7:37PSUEthan Grunkemeyer 6 Yd Run (Matthew Parker Kick)3–46
- Q3 3:21PSURyan Barker 39 Yd Field Goal 3–39
- Q3 7:15PSUNicholas Singleton 1 Yd Run (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)3–36
- Q3 9:23PSURyan Barker 32 Yd Field Goal 3–30
- Q2 0:23PSUKyron Hudson 31 Yd pass from Drew Allar (Ryan Barker Kick)3–27
- Q2 2:22PSURyan Barker 28 Yd Field Goal 3–20
- Q2 4:52NEVJoe McFadden 28 Yd Field Goal 3–17
- Q2 10:02PSUKaytron Allen 12 Yd Run (Ryan Barker Kick)0–17
- Q1 1:41PSURyan Barker 28 Yd Field Goal 0–10
- Q1 3:05PSUNicholas Singleton 1 Yd Run (Ryan Barker Kick)0–7
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (PSU Elo 2063, NEV Elo 1294 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects PSU -33.2 (97% to win) — 10.8 points clear of NEV's market line of -44. That is a disagreement, not a betting edge — sides we favour have not covered at better than breakeven.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 15 · through week 2 · drive simulation
Season form — 2025
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles| NEV | PSU | |
|---|---|---|
| -15.3 (#110) | CORE overall | +13.0 (#32) |
| -11 / +4 | offense / defense | +8 / -5 |
| 1.33 | points / drive | 2.96 |
| 2.49 | allowed / drive | 2.25 |
| 30% | three-and-outs | 23% |
| -8 | pass over expected | -3 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →