| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NEV | 3 | 9 | 7 | 3 | 22 |
| UNM | 7 | 7 | 10 | 0 | 24 |
Our model blends Elo ratings (UNM Elo 1403, NEV Elo 1188) plus home-field advantage. That projects UNM -11 (79% to win) — 3.0 points of value on NEV versus the market line of -14.
Cumulative margin after each quarter. Above the line = NEV ahead, below = UNM ahead.
Play-by-play win probability isn't available for this game — scoreboard margin by quarter shown instead.
UNM up 5 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,967 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
Nevada 22, New Mexico 24.
Yes — the model's pick (UNM) was correct.
Why trust the number?Gridpex's model is walk-forward validated on 2014–24, out-of-sample: +0.28 pts mean Closing Line Value and 53.5% beat the close. We report the record and validate every pick against closing line value.
Called it — I had UNM pregame. ✓ We log the misses too, but not this one.
Jack Layne pass complete to Dorian Thomas for 28 yds to the NEV 42 for a 1ST down Nevada Penalty, Face Mask (15 yards) (AJ Odums) to the NEV 27 for a 1ST down
Carter Jones pass complete to Marshaun Brown for 20 yds to the UNM 25 for a 1ST down
Jack Layne pass complete to D.J. McKinney for 39 yds to the NEV 36 for a 1ST down
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