Nevada vs. New Mexico: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
NEVTeam statsUNM
- Q4 10:55NEVJoe McFadden 41 Yd Field Goal 22–24
- Q3 0:00UNMLuke Drzewiecki 29 Yd Field Goal 19–24
- Q3 3:25NEVCaleb Ramseur 4 Yd Run (Joe McFadden Kick)19–21
- Q3 11:45UNMD.J. McKinney 22 Yd Run (Luke Drzewiecki Kick)12–21
- Q2 0:41NEVCaleb Ramseur 3 Yd Run (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)12–14
- Q2 1:51NEVJoe McFadden 36 Yd Field Goal 6–14
- Q2 6:51UNMScottre Humphrey 1 Yd Run (Luke Drzewiecki Kick)3–14
- Q1 3:41NEVJoe McFadden 33 Yd Field Goal 3–7
- Q1 7:16UNMD.J. McKinney 2 Yd Run (Luke Drzewiecki Kick)0–7
How the model called it
- PassCarter Jones 23/29, 202 YDS
- RushCaleb Ramseur 14 CAR, 39 YDS, 2 TD
- RecMarshaun Brown 7 REC, 75 YDS
- PassJack Layne 14/22, 138 YDS
- RushJack Layne 8 CAR, 71 YDS
- RecDorian Thomas 5 REC, 56 YDS
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsUNM up 5 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,967 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q4 2:24UNM +28%
Scottre Humphrey run for 3 yds to the NEV 47
- Q4 10:55NEV +21%
Joe McFadden 41 yd FG GOOD
- Q3 3:25NEV +21%
Caleb Ramseur run for 4 yds for a TD (Joe McFadden KICK)
- Q4 5:17NEV +19%
Shotgun Jones,Carter pass incomplete deep left to Thomas,Dakota thrown to NEV49 PENALTY UNM Pass Interference (Coleman,Caleb) 15 yards from NEV18 to NEV33, 1ST DOWN. N…
- Q3 11:45UNM +15%
D.J. McKinney run for 22 yds for a TD (Luke Drzewiecki KICK)
- Q2 0:41NEV +14%
Caleb Ramseur run for 3 yds for a TD (Two-Point Conversion failed)
FAQ
What was the final score of Nevada vs. New Mexico?
Nevada 22, New Mexico 24.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
Yes — the model's pick (UNM) was correct.
| NEV | UNM | |
|---|---|---|
| 257 | Total yards | 348 |
| 202 | Passing yards | 138 |
| 55 | Rushing yards | 210 |
| 16 | First downs | 22 |
| 5-13 | 3rd down | 5-13 |
| 1-3 | 4th down | 3-4 |
| 23/29 | Comp/Att | 14/22 |
| 7.0 | Yards per pass | 6.3 |
| 2.0 | Yards per rush | 5.0 |
| 0 | Turnovers | 2 |
| 9-61 | Penalties | 8-64 |
| 29:27 | Possession | 30:33 |
Costliest call
Q2 13:14 NEV punt on 4th & 8 at UNM 37. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 0.58 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 10:55NEVJoe McFadden 41 Yd Field Goal 22–24
- Q3 0:00UNMLuke Drzewiecki 29 Yd Field Goal 19–24
- Q3 3:25NEVCaleb Ramseur 4 Yd Run (Joe McFadden Kick)19–21
- Q3 11:45UNMD.J. McKinney 22 Yd Run (Luke Drzewiecki Kick)12–21
- Q2 0:41NEVCaleb Ramseur 3 Yd Run (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)12–14
- Q2 1:51NEVJoe McFadden 36 Yd Field Goal 6–14
- Q2 6:51UNMScottre Humphrey 1 Yd Run (Luke Drzewiecki Kick)3–14
- Q1 3:41NEVJoe McFadden 33 Yd Field Goal 3–7
- Q1 7:16UNMD.J. McKinney 2 Yd Run (Luke Drzewiecki Kick)0–7
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (UNM Elo 1403, NEV Elo 1188 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects UNM -11 (77% to win) — 3.0 points clear of NEV's market line of -14. That is a disagreement, not a betting edge — sides we favour have not covered at better than breakeven.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2025
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profilesNevada leads 6–4–1 · 36% have been one-possession games
| NEV | UNM | |
|---|---|---|
| -15.3 (#110) | CORE overall | +0.5 (#63) |
| -11 / +4 | offense / defense | -2 / -3 |
| 1.33 | points / drive | 2.50 |
| 2.49 | allowed / drive | 2.02 |
| 30% | three-and-outs | 26% |
| -8 | pass over expected | +1 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →